Atlanta United facing team that started its weird cycle

Atlanta United will play an important match at Philadelphia on Saturday. Its result likely will determine the probability that Atlanta United will make the MLS playoffs.

The club in this unwanted position of being below the playoff line because of its first match against Philadelphia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in April. In that match, the Five Stripes took a two-goal lead and appeared to be on the verge of winning for the fourth time in seven matches.

Instead, Philadelphia scored two goals, both of them fluky, to deny Atlanta United the victory and three valuable points. It started a slow spiral that Atlanta United hasn’t been able to break, interim manager Rob Valentino believes.

“I feel like from there we started to maybe lose confidence, whatever happened in the season, right?” he said. “But that was kind of a catalyst to it.”

Atlanta United hasn’t had a win streak since the season’s second and third matches. Of its remaining five league wins after facing Philadelphia, none have been by more than one goal, after doing so three times before that match. It has lost by two goals or more three times in the 23 matches after facing the Union, after it happened once when its roster was decimated by the international break before that match. It has scored three goals or more once after doing so twice before facing the Union.

That match seemed to break Atlanta United mentally.

To recap: Caleb Wiley and Daniel Rios scored to give Atlanta United the 2-0 lead in the 63rd minute. It obviously didn’t hold onto the lead, a problem this season. Philadelphia’s Mikael Uhre caught up to a loose ball behind Atlanta United’s defense and scored in the 73rd minute, Kai Wagner followed with a karate-style, low-percentage volley in the 77th minute.

Wiley’s quote afterward proved wise: “It’s one of those draws, I feel it’s like a loss, to be honest. When you create so many chances, and you feel like you’re honestly the better team, it feels like a loss. I think, toward the end, it’s something that we have to work on is around the 80th, 90th minute, we have to keep our concentration and focus.”

Atlanta United is 7-3-2 when scoring the first goal, a total of 23 points. Philadelphia is 8-5-1, a total of 25 points. That draw back in April is the two-point difference. Had that draw not happened.....

Now, Philadelphia is in the ninth and final playoff spot. Atlanta United is three points behind the Union, trying to get above the line with four matches remaining.

Midfielder Bartosz Slisz said on Thursday that because the team plays so many matches, he didn’t remember their first meeting. But he said Saturday’s is the most important match this season.

“We have to win this game if you want to play in playoffs,” he said.

If Atlanta United doesn’t win on Saturday, it could be six points out with three matches remaining.

“It’s gonna be a tough game,” centerback Derrick Williams said. “Very good side, good players. They work really hard, but if you want to get into playoffs, you have to beat teams like this. You have to get results there. And it’s something we’re all up for. I’m looking forward to to trying to keep a clean sheet.”

Should Atlanta United can get a lead on Saturday, it must do better than it did against Philadelphia, or than it did in giving up a goal in the 97th minute in last week’s 2-2 draw with Red Bulls, according to Valentino. Philadelphia is 1-7-5 when it gives up the first goal, which is slightly better than Atlanta United’s 1-10-6 record.

“We have to be able to be defensively solid first, and then be really smart in all moments,” he said.

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Atlanta United’s 2024 schedule

Feb. 24 Columbus 1, Atlanta United 0

March 9 Atlanta United 4, New England 1

March 17 Atlanta United 2, Orlando 0

March 23 Toronto 2, Atlanta United 0

March 31 Atlanta United 3, Chicago 0

April 6 Atlanta United 1, NYCFC 1

April 14 Atlanta United 2, Philadelphia 2

April 20 Cincinnati 2, Atlanta United 1

April 27 Atlanta United 1, Chicago 1

May 4 Minnesota 2, Atlanta United 1

May 7 Atlanta United 3, Charlotte Independence 0 in U.S. Open Cup