The simple reason Atlanta United isn’t winning more often

There is a simple reason that Atlanta United isn’t winning more matches.

Make sure your boots are tied on tight because it’s going to blow your mind. Ready?

It’s not just scoring more goals. The team needs to become more ‘clinical’.

Mind blown? I knew it.

Atlanta United has scored 34 goals in 28 matches this season. That’s tied for 19th in the 29-team league. The team is holding onto the ninth and final playoff place in the East with a match at Charlotte on Saturday.

Teams that have spent far less on players -- Dallas (40), Vancouver (42), Salt Lake (51) to name a few -- are outscoring Atlanta United.

Here’s the rub: Atlanta United should be scoring so many more goals.

If you believe in expected goals, a measure of the average that a goal should be scored in a specific situation, Atlanta United should have 51 goals this season. That would be fourth-most in that stat this season.

In fact, no other MLS team has such a discrepancy between goals scored and expected goals as Atlanta United’s minus 17-goal difference. No team even comes close. Nashville has minus-12. Chicago has minus-11. St. Louis and San Jose have minus-10. Charlotte has minus-9.

To mangle a quote inspired by the movie “Life of Brian:” Atlanta United dreams of the day it has a minus-9 goal difference.

Its wastefulness was evident in Saturday’s 2-0 loss at L.A. Galaxy. Several times in the first half, and twice in the second, Atlanta United worked itself into positions to score. Two goals were chalked off because of offsides. One call came against Jamal Thiare when he probably should have done better. The second came against Xande Silva when he left the field, came back on and then touched the ball. He definitely should have known better.

“I think it’s pretty simple, in the first half we had the opportunity and needed to score and we didn’t score and then the second half they had the opportunity and scored,” Silva said. “I think we need to be more clinical and it cost us the game.”

Atlanta United’s profligacy in front of goal isn’t just because it no longer has Thiago Almada and Giorgos Giakoumakis. They were on the team for the first half of the season but neither could find their form. To see the difference an in-form scorer(s) like Giakoumakis and Almada can make, last season Atlanta United scored 66 goals. It had an expected goals of 44.7, according to fbref.com. It made the playoffs. In 2022, when Atlanta United used an assortment of strikers, few consistently effective, it scored 48 goals and had an expected goals of 55. It didn’t make the playoffs.

It makes the team’s inability to sign a striker despite repeated attempts during the window that much more painful for Atlanta United supporters.

“I think that we have to be more clinical with our chances that we did create in the first half, because that’s a whole different game,” interim manager Rob Valentino said after the Galaxy match. “So yes, there’s a part of me that’s okay. The defending was pretty good. We worked a lot on attacking transition, finalizing plays in the attacking third, and so we had the chances, and then even on a one, one of them, I think, was like a long spell of possession, and we end up with a chance of goal. So we just have to finalize those plays. That’s really, really important.”

For more content about Atlanta United

Follow me on Twitter/X @DougRobersonAJC

On Facebook at Atlanta United News Now

On Instagram at DouglasDavidRoberson

Atlanta United coverage on The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Southern Fried Soccer podcast can be found

Apple - https://apple.co/3ISD6Ve

Spotify - https://spoti.fi/3L8TN0C

Google podcasts - https://bit.ly/32KlZW3

If you are going to listen to the podcast for the first time, please follow it on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts ... and if you like what you hear, please give us a good rating so we can grow the show. If you have questions about the MLS team, you can email Doug Roberson at droberson@ajc.com, DM him on Twitter @dougrobersonajc or call 404-526-2527.

Stay up to date every day on breaking news, in-depth investigations, politics, sports, entertainment, food and dining and so much more by becoming a subscriber to the AJC. Go to AJC.com/start for a very special offer and unlock hundreds of original articles published daily on the refreshed AJC.com and the new AJC mobile app. Plus, access to our news alerts, subscriber-only events, AJC original shows, films and videos, newsletters, and so much more.

Atlanta United’s 2024 schedule

Feb. 24 Columbus 1, Atlanta United 0

March 9 Atlanta United 4, New England 1

March 17 Atlanta United 2, Orlando 0

March 23 Toronto 2, Atlanta United 0

March 31 Atlanta United 3, Chicago 0

April 6 Atlanta United 1, NYCFC 1

April 14 Atlanta United 2, Philadelphia 2

April 20 Cincinnati 2, Atlanta United 1

April 27 Atlanta United 1, Chicago 1

May 4 Minnesota 2, Atlanta United 1

May 7 Atlanta United 3, Charlotte Independence 0 in U.S. Open Cup