NL East odds: Despite Phillies’ torrid stretch, Braves remain strong favorites

As the MLB calendar flips to May, the Atlanta Braves find themselves in familiar territory in the NL East odds -- the favorite. However, their grip atop the division isn’t quite as firm as it was a year ago when they led both the Marlins and Mets by three full games after the first full month.

This season, the Phillies have been the primary challenger, and perhaps the only team that could give Atlanta a serious run over a full 162-game schedule. Out to a 21-11 start, the Phillies followed an 8-2 homestand with an impressive 7-3 10-game road trip, helping them to their best start since the 2011 season.

Given Philadelphia’s recent success over the Braves in the postseason, Atlanta can attest to the legitimate threat posed by the Phillies.

After a brutal first week of the season, the Mets have stabilized to a .500 record while Washington also sits at .500 through .300 games. As for the Marlins, well, maybe next year. Thanks to a slew of pitching injuries and a questionable lineup, it feels like the Marlins’ season was over before it ever began.

Current NL East odds: Braves cling to top spot

Ahead of play on May 2, the Braves remain a significant favorite to win yet another division title.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta (-330) is significantly more expensive than Philadelphia (+290). Meanwhile, New York (+2800), Nationals (+25000) and Miami (+30000) each represent longshots just a little over a month into the season.

Given Atlanta’s regular season dominance in recent seasons along with a powerful offense that is producing an MLB-best 5.41 runs per game, this despite slow starts by Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley,.

It’s not like Atlanta’s pitching has been bad. The Braves are yielding just 3.76 runs per game. The combined efforts have allowed the Braves to sport baseball’s third-best run differential.

And it’s not just oddsmakers that love the Braves. Popular postseason projection models from Baseball Reference (66.5%) and FanGraphs (81.9%) strongly favor them to win the division.

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Can the Phillies challenge the Braves?

Perhaps the following assessment will prove foolish, but from this perspective, there is only NL East team capable of running with the Braves.

The Mets have excelled in run prevention, yielding just 4.07 runs per game but they’re 17th in scoring at 4.27 runs per contest. It’s hard to imagine the Mets having enough getting enough offensive firepower to win in the mid 90s, which figures to be the minimum requirement to take the division.

While the Nationals have some exciting young talent and have gotten good quality relief pitching, they simply don’t have the talent to play into the 90s. As for the Marlins, well, let’s just move on.

That brings us to the Phillies, a team that can beat you in a number of ways.

Phillies pitchers currently lead all teams in fWAR, this despite some early-season struggles out of the bullpen. The starting staff has been simply sensational, boasting 4.5 fWAR while also leading all staffs in BAA and WHIP. Their 26 percent K% (2nd), 2.50 ERA (2nd), 3.28 FIP (2nd) and 52% ground ball rate (3rd) all rank among the game’s best.

They also boast three of the top six ERAs among starting pitchers in Ranger Saurez (1.32), Zack Wheeler (1.91) and Spencer Turnbull (1.67) -- a list that does not include Aaron Nola (3.20), who’s also off to a good start.

Pair that up with a slew of dangerous bullpen arms that are probably pitching a bit below expectations at the moment and an offense that ranks third in home runs per game, and the Phillies could just possibly possess enough to seriously challenge the Braves.