Can Trump, Kemp get in sync for Senate race in Georgia?

The most pivotal event in Georgia’s Republican race for the U.S. Senate may have already happened. Now the party is in limbo as it waits to see whether Gov. Brian Kemp and President Donald Trump can actually rally behind the same contender.

Skepticism is more than warranted. The once-bitter rivals quietly met in Washington on May 10 to discuss consolidating behind a 2026 challenger to Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff — a meeting that, for now, ended without a public agreement.

But allies of both Kemp and Trump have described the sit-down as productive and say they’re quietly optimistic the two can do now what they couldn’t in the last two Senate cycles: reach an early consensus.

Kemp has said little publicly about the meeting, but he told a group of dozens of donors last week to “keep your powder dry” as he and the president continue to hash out a plan. Before the call ended, he urged his allies to “give us time.”

And several people close to Trump say the president was receptive to the idea at the meeting, which was arranged with the help of U.S. Rep. Brian Jack, a former Trump political adviser and first-term congressman from west Georgia.

Now some state Republicans are in a holding pattern over who might emerge in a race still more than a year away. And the two most prominent candidates already in — U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter and Insurance Commissioner John King — are pressing for a chance to prove themselves.

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“I don’t think that’s helpful for them to jump in at this point because guess what? We’ve made some poor choices in Georgia, and that’s why we have two Democrats in the Senate today,” King recently told the “Politically Georgia” podcast.

“I think we need to earn that. We need to work hard. We have to have a serious campaign.”

Credit: Jason Allen/AJC

Credit: Jason Allen/AJC

Other senior Republicans hope Trump and Kemp can defy expectations and unite against Ossoff. Brian Robinson, a veteran strategist, said that’s the party’s best chance to win over the “deciders” — the swing voters who have shaped Georgia’s last several elections.

“Give me someone who can win. Because if you think it’s going to be easy to beat Ossoff, you are wrong,” he said. “He’s going to spend tens of millions — maybe hundreds of millions — communicating about his work across party lines.”

He added: “We’ve got to be better, faster and smarter than the Democrats if we are going to win. And if they can find that unicorn, that’s great.”

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No ‘blank check’

The stakes are enormous. A joint blessing from Kemp and Trump could potentially end the GOP primary before it begins. A misstep could strengthen Ossoff, who is both a vulnerable Senate incumbent and battle-tested campaigner.

Ossoff and fellow Democrat Raphael Warnock capitalized on Republican fissures in 2020, when Trump withheld support for Kemp’s Senate appointee, Kelly Loeffler, sparking a bitter showdown with then-Rep. Doug Collins over conservative voters.

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In 2022, Trump’s early endorsement of Herschel Walker despite mounting red flags backfired, as swing voters recoiled from the former football star and Warnock cruised to a full six-year term. Kemp largely steered clear of Walker, only publicly campaigning for him in the final days of the runoff.

Since then, Trump and Kemp have defused their once-volatile relationship, holding several cordial face-to-face meetings. A Trump adviser says the president is expected to be more “patient” this time, in part because he knows his agenda hinges on reclaiming a Republican Senate majority.

Ossoff, meanwhile, is in a stronger position than he was in 2020. He’s already stockpiled more than $11 million and he’s working to replicate Warnock’s 2022 formula: Energize his base while appealing to independent voters uneasy with Trump-aligned candidates.

That history explains why Kemp and his allies have tried to slow what they feared could become a stampede of GOP hopefuls after the governor passed on a Senate run of his own.

So far, the results are mixed. Carter and King quickly entered the race, while U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene took herself out of contention after polls showed she’d struggle badly against Ossoff.

U.S. Reps. Mike Collins and Rich McCormick, as well as Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, are still weighing their options. But several other potentially strong candidates are likely out.

Jack is just months into his first term and is seen as a rising star if he stays in Congress. Loeffler and Doug Collins are now newly minted members of Trump’s Cabinet with full plates of their own.

Credit: AJC

Attorney General Chris Carr, a former top aide to the late U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson who flirted with a Senate bid in 2022, is committed to running for governor. So is Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who is expected to enter the race for Kemp’s job later this summer.

Advisers to both Kemp and Trump say they’ve discussed lesser-known possibilities who could bridge the gap between Trump’s MAGA base and Kemp’s mainstream coalition. But finding a candidate who satisfies both factions and can win statewide won’t be easy.

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“The reality is whoever represents the GOP in November against Ossoff has no chance if he or she is 100% Trump,” said state Rep. Kasey Carpenter, a Dalton Republican who has been critical of his party’s immigration stance.

“He or she can support the president like all of us do, but they better not be a blank Trump check or we will lose. Georgia voters will respect and demand some autonomy.”

A tightrope walk

One of the more intriguing possibilities is Raffensperger, whose refusal to “find” Trump enough votes to overturn his 2020 defeat made him a villain to some MAGA loyalists, but earned him enduring credibility from crossover voters.

He later defeated a Trump-backed primary challenger with support from moderates yet has aligned himself behind Trump and his second-term agenda. Some see him as the GOP’s strongest contender — if he can survive a primary.

Credit: Jenni Girtman

“Republicans must have a candidate who gets a decent percentage of swing voters or their pathway to victory becomes as narrow as the eye of a needle,” said Robinson, who has consulted for Raffensperger.

He pointed to several polls that show Raffensperger as one of the few Georgia Republicans now within striking distance of Ossoff in hypothetical matchups.

“Maybe that’s a nonstarter with Trump,” Robinson said, “but my point is we need to look at that kind of data.”

For now, many GOP activists and donors are on standby. And Carter and King are making it clear they’re not going anywhere.

Carter told “Politically Georgia” he’ll stay in the race even if party leaders endorse someone else. He’s already unloaded more than $2 million on ads, including one this week mocking transgender rights. An aide said he’s also prepared to stroke an eight-figure check for his campaign.

“And at the end of the day, I think that I can make the case that I am the true conservative, the MAGA warrior,” he said.

King also insists he’s in it for the long haul. He told donors that he raised more than $650,000 in his first 10 days. And he’s casting himself as the only Republican who can unite supporters of both Kemp and Trump.

“I’m the candidate with the track record of rallying this coalition,” he said. “I’m ready to do it again.”