Georgia and Georgia Tech both have byes this week. That may be a bad thing for locals who need their fix, but I love it because I get more space to crow about my picks. The Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets let you down, but I didn’t.
Weekend Predictions was 13-3 against the spread last week after going 11-5-1 the week before. I’ve been right on 60 percent of 98 picks this season, which is outstanding. Heck, if I coached Tech football, that kind of record would get me a contract extension.
Last weekend was tough for Tech coach Paul Johnson, who lost to Duke for the fourth time in five games. Afterward, Duke coach David Cutcliffe said he has a playbook for neutralizing Johnson’s offense and praised his scout-team players for doing a good job emulating it. Ouch. I’m sure the loss also was hard on Johnson.
The hot topic for the Bulldogs after they got thrashed at LSU is which quarterback should start. That’s odd because, as far as I know, neither Jake Fromm nor Justin Fields can block or tackle. Maybe by the time the bye week is over everyone will remember how LSU, like Missouri, pushed the Bulldogs around and the QB won’t matter if they don’t get stouter.
At least the Falcons came through. If you had Julio Jones preventing Jameis Winston from running for a winning touchdown in your props pool, congratulations. Also, that’s a very weird pool.
Giants (plus-4.5) at Falcons
The Falcons owe some of their victory to bad decisions made by Winston under no duress. This week’s opposing QB, Eli Manning, also doesn’t have much brain power in the pocket. Hard to believe that guy is still milking those two Super Bowl victories, the last of which came seven seasons ago.
The Falcons have a depleted defense but, as noted previously, they can survive if they limit big plays. Per Sharp Football, the Falcons rank sixth-best in the rate of explosive runs allowed and 26th in explosive passes surrendered. The Giants haven't generated many big pass plays, so I'm thinking this one ends with Manning looking dopey on the sideline as the Falcons cover the spread.
NFC South
Saints (plus-2.5) at Ravens
Saints QB Drew Brees can become the third quarterback to beat all 32 teams, joining Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. Of course, the current 32-team alignment and rotating intraconference scheduling began in 2002, so really the record is about playing the right position, for a long time, and for multiple teams in the current NFL era. Now get off my lawn. The line is about right on this one, but I'll side with Baltimore at home and give the points.
Panthers (plus-4.5) at Eagles
Carolina’s Cam Newton needs two rushing first downs to surpass Michael Vick’s record of 343 rushing first downs by a quarterback. That was a shock to me because I had no idea anyone was keeping track of such a dumb record. I’m taking the Panthers and the points.
Browns (plus-3) at Buccaneers
There were lots of hot takes last week about how everyone underestimated Browns rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. He plays for the Browns, though, so of course there was a market correction and Mayfield stunk it up in a blowout loss to the Chargers at home. “That is the worst loss that I have ever had,” Mayfield said, but it won’t even be top 10 by the time he’s done playing for the Browns. They will cover against the Bucs and their bumbling defense.
NFL games of interest
Texans (plus-5) at Jaguars
Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville’s Mouth of the South, had little to say after his defense was shredded by the Cowboys last week. I’m thinking his next target for smack talk will be Jags coach Doug Marrone, who conducted training camp-style practices this week. Sounds like just the thing for an injury-riddled, underachieving team. Houston covers.
Vikings (minus-3) at Jets
The Jets are somehow 3-3 with Sam Darnold as their starting QB. OK, two of those wins were at home against the Broncos and Colts, but still. The Jets can sweep the three-game homestand with a victory over the Vikings. “Winning every single game we get at home is important because our fans are amazing,” said Darnold, who clearly hasn’t gotten to know them yet. I’ll take the Vikes to cover.
Patriots (minus-3) at Bears
The Evil Empire survived a home shootout against the Chiefs because of course they did. Can no one stop the Patriots from yet another run to the Super Bowl? A desperate nation looks to you, Chicago, to stop this malignant force of narcissism, cheating and whiny self-victimhood. Give me the Bears and the points.
SEC games of interest
Auburn (minus-3.5) at Ole Miss
If Tech’s Johnson thinks questions about his job security are premature then he should get a load of Gus Malzahn. Auburn’s coach was asked if he thinks he’s in danger after a 4-3 start. (He said no.) AD Allen Greene said he’s focused on supporting Malzahn and “understanding that this isn’t a week-to-week deal here,” inspiring uncontrollable laughter from anyone who pays attention to SEC football.
Mississippi State (plus-6.5) at LSU
After LSU beat the Bulldogs, SI.com described a wild scene in Death Valley that included people "sloshing through mud, hurdling 4-foot high barriers and collapsing on hard concrete." Craziest thing is that was before LSU coach Ed Orgeron joined the party. Bulldogs cover.
Alabama (minus-29) at Tennessee
Asked by AL.com about Nick Saban's dominance of college football, Steve Spurrier sniffed: "They didn't win the SEC last year." That sounds petty until you remember Spurrier was 3-1 against Saban, including one victory while coaching South Carolina. My winning streak picking big dogs against Bama ended at three, but I'm getting back on the train. Volunteers cover.
Vanderbilt (plus-11) at Kentucky
Kentucky’s loss at Texas A&M has Wildcats fans worried that this could be the beginning of another fade for ... wait, what’s that? Basketball practice started last weekend? Oh, never mind then. I’ll take Vandy and the points.
ACC games of interest
N.C. State (plus-17.5) at Clemson
The best outcome for Clemson is beating N.C. State, but not so easily that everyone realizes the ACC is garbage. The Tigers could finish undefeated with just two decent victories. A close game shouldn’t be a problem because Clemson barely beat the Wolfpack in each of the past two seasons and N.C. State is better this year. Wolfpack cover.
Virginia (plus-7) at Duke
Duke’s Cutcliffe was SEC coach of the year at Mississippi in 2003, when he tied the school record for victories. (Eli Manning was his QB.) The AD at the time, Pete Boone, canned Cutcliffe after one losing season and hired Orgeron, who had three worse seasons. I bring all of that up just so I can have another chance to point out that Orgeron’s team just handled Kirby Smart. Virginia covers.
National games of interest
Michigan (minus-7) at Michigan State
Things are looking good for Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh (to clarify, he’s the less-likeable coaching Harbaugh). That means this sets up as another big-game flop for Harbaugh, but the Spartans are banged up, so I’m taking Michigan and giving the points.
Washington State (minus-3) at Oregon
This is a big game. The winner stays on track to become the Pac-12 champion that will be left out of the College Football Playoff. I like Oregon as a home dog.
Last week
Against the spread: 13-3 (58-38-2 season)
AJC pick 'em (straight up): 7-8 (62-41 season)
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