There’s a story a hundred media folks here want to write but most won’t. I include myself. I’d love to predict that Clemson will win the national championship, which would mean Alabama losing. Alabama losing would be a much bigger deal that Alabama winning and good for college football to boot.
If that sounds unfair to the Crimson Tide, I’m sorry. But when you’ve been this good for this long, success is merely more of the same. Any failure, on the other hand, becomes stop-the-presses stuff. Journalists aren’t supposed to root for teams, but we all know that Clemson winning would be The Better Story by far.
And I’d love to predict it because, should it happen, I’d point to it for the next decade as that time I was right and most everybody else was wrong. (The way I do with Texas over USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl, which was technically more than a decade ago.) These fingers typing this? They’re itching – itching, I tell you – to peck out the words, “The Tigers will prevail.” But the ol’ brain, such as it is, keeps sending a counter-signal: “Hello? They’re playing Alabama.”
There's a compelling case to be made for Clemson. Not long ago, I posited that Washington had a decent shot at hanging with Alabama in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, which kind of happened until it didn't, but there was a difference: I never believed the Huskies could beat Alabama. Clemson can.
The Tigers nearly beat Bama in the College Football Playoff final a year ago in Glendale, Ariz. Those numbers again – 40 points and 550 yards against the last Tide defense overseen by Kirby Smart. I'm calling it right now: If Clemson scores 40 here Monday night, it'll win by 10. With Jalen Hurts, who's both a freshman and a shaky passer, Alabama cannot hope to match throws with Deshaun Watson.
As Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said Sunday: “You’ve always got a chance when you can surround a good quarterback with a great cast.” That cast has one star who didn’t play against Alabama in the desert. Mike Williams missed last season due to a neck injury; with apologies to Alabama’s Calvin Ridley, Williams will be the best receiver on the field Monday night.
As noted a time or two, the guy whose defense was shredded by Watson last January is coaching Georgia. The guy charged with stopping Watson this time is Jeremy Pruitt, who was Georgia's defensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015. We know Alabama is manic about preparation and unrelenting in its self-scrutiny. Those two numbers – 40 and 550 – have hung over the Tide for a year. Ole Miss managed 43 points and 534 yards against Bama on Sept. 17, but only one opponent since has mustered even 30 and 400.
(Over the past eight games, Pruitt’s defenders have yielded an average of 8.1 points and 207.6 yards. As the great Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman said: “That’s one quarter in the Big 12.”)
Watson threw 47 passes against Alabama. He was sacked twice, intercepted once. As noted by defensive end Jonathan Allen, Pruitt is more aggressive by nature than Smart, and Pruitt has only to watch the tape of last year’s game to see what can happen if Watson is given time. The Tide will surely bring more pressure this time. If Watson hurts them by scrambling – he had 73 yards rushing in last year’s game – they’ll take that as the cost of keeping him from beating them by throwing. To borrow from Dan Quinn, Bama must get this quarterback off his spot.
Clemson has reason to take heart from its last Alabama encounter. It led with 10:35 remaining. If not for an untended onside kick and a kickoff return for a touchdown, it might well have won. Having won the ACC – which was tougher than the SEC this season – and obliterated Ohio State, the Tigers have no cause to fear anyone, and they know from experience they can hang in against the mighty Tide. They have every reason to believe.
Except one: They’re playing Alabama, which is 9-0 in championship games since losing the SEC title to Florida on Dec. 6, 2008.
Swinney grew up in Pelham, Ala., and played on Alabama’s 1992 national championship team. This is what he said Sunday of the latter-day Tide. “I’ve never seen anything like it. Coach Bryant was a hero of mine; everybody knows about coach Bryant. But with what coach Saban has done, the amount of championships in the span of time with scholarship (limitations), it’s just incredible. I really have no words.”
And there’s your tangle. To beat Alabama means you must beat Nick Saban, which is akin to beating UCLA and John Wooden. Lots of teams tried, but only North Carolina State and David Thompson finally did, and even when it happened you couldn’t quite believe it.
Much has been made about Saban shoving offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin aside a week before playing for the national title, but that's yet another reason why there's but one Saban. He saw the distraction the lame duck had become – and how his addled play-calling was all that kept Washington cosmetically close – and he rid himself of it. We can assume Steve Sarkisian got the memo: When in doubt, run the darn ball.
A part of me believes Clemson will win, but that would mean Saban loses, and that’s the knot I can’t untie. I’ll believe Saban loses a championship game only when I actually see it. Which I might Monday night. But I doubt it.
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