U.S. House, District 3, GOP primary*
Mike Crane: 26.92 percent
Drew Ferguson: 26.77 percent
Jim Pace: 23.00 percent
Chip Flanegan: 9.90 percent
Richard Mix: 9.13 percent
Samuel Anders: 2.87 percent
Arnall “Rod” Thomas: 1.40 percent
U.S. House, District 3, Democratic primary*
Angela Pendley: 50.22 percent
Tamarkus Cook: 49.78 percent
*Numbers are from the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office and remain unofficial
The presumed finalists for the Republican nomination to Georgia’s 3rd District seat in the U.S. House moved quickly Wednesday to consolidate support from their vanquished rivals and to define the race moving forward.
State Sen. Mike Crane, R-Newnan, and dentist and former West Point Mayor Drew Ferguson finished first and a close second, respectively, in Tuesday's primary based off unofficial election tallies. If those results hold, they will face off again in the July 26 runoff. Businessman Jim Pace finished a close third but has not conceded the race.
Crane, the top vote-getter by a few dozen ballots, tried to frame the primary results as a mandate for his campaign.
“A first-place finish confirms the people’s desire to send a proven conservative statesman to represent the 3rd District at the federal level,” Crane said in a statement. The contracting company owner said he’d now turn his attention to drawing distinctions between his platform and Ferguson’s “big government, big business, central planning solutions.”
Ferguson said in an interview that his campaign was already beginning to attract new support.
“We are going to stick to the game plan we’ve been working,” he said Wednesday. “We have stayed focused on our message — to rebuild our economy and get government out of the way.”
Ferguson took the early lead in preliminary vote counting Tuesday, but Crane and Pace closed in as the evening unfolded. By the time The Associated Press called the race at 11:30 p.m., Crane had pulled ahead by fewer than 100 votes.
That margin matters. Since 2000, there have been 68 runoffs following federal or statewide primaries in Georgia. Only eight times did the person who finished second in the primary end up winning the runoff, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis of election returns.
The weeks ahead
The expected eight-week runoff will be a test of Crane’s network of evangelicals and grass-roots anti-establishment conservatives vs. Ferguson’s ability to unite other Republicans as a small-town leader who helped capitalize off Korean automaker Kia’s move to west Georgia a decade ago.
Their ability to drive voter turnout will undoubtedly be the biggest factor in determining who will ultimately come out on top.
Primary runoffs are generally low-interest affairs to the general public, particularly during the summer months when voters are vacationing and there are few other races to help generate interest. In that respect, Crane may initially have the upper hand since his support base draws from the crowd that's traditionally the most likely to vote in such races.
Crane and Ferguson combined accounted for about 54 percent of all votes cast, meaning 46 percent are theoretically up for grabs. Pace, who collected 23 percent of Tuesday’s vote, will surely become a popular guy as Crane and Ferguson are likely to seek his endorsement.
Pace on Wednesday did not concede the race as votes continued to be counted in Fayette County, which is one of the businessman’s strongholds in the district. A campaign aide said Pace would wait for a final vote breakdown before finalizing his next steps.
New money, attention likely
The runoff could attract outside money and attention.
Crane is seen as a darling of the right, a rabble-rouser in the mold of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, and ahead of the primary he received endorsements from the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks. He also received $5,000 from the Senate Conservatives Fund, a political action committee founded by former U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C.
Ferguson will undoubtedly be looking to win comparable outside attention, particularly regarding his jobs and economy-focused platform. An extrovert who excels in retail politics, he’s spoken at length about how he plans to apply the principles he learned helping re-energize West Point in Washington.
Ferguson enjoyed a fundraising lead during the primary campaign. That may no longer be the case.
Crane reported raising $150,814 through May 4, with nearly $100,000 in cash on hand. He raised an additional $98,000 in large contributions through this past weekend, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. Those reports, however, only show money raised, not spent, so it is unclear yet how much of that cash is left for the runoff.
Ferguson raised more than $280,000 through May 4, but he had just $54,800 left at that point. Ferguson brought in an additional $35,000 in large contributions through Friday, including $5,000 from a national credit union PAC.
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