Maxwell playoff projections after Round Two
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2018 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.
Class AAAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds. | Class AAAAAAA brackets, schedules
| Team | Seed | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | #1 (1) | 12-0 | 103.35 | 80.39 | 4.50 | 919,086.53 | 844,703.83 | 737,994.89 | 0.36 |
| Grayson | #1 (8) | 10-2 | 87.47 | 86.83 | 3.42 | 747,439.02 | 542,088.41 | 134,553.47 | 6.43 |
| Archer | #2 (8) | 10-2 | 81.80 | 90.00 | 2.79 | 661,950.85 | 85,951.76 | 40,171.82 | 23.89 |
| Hillgrove | #1 (3) | 12-0 | 79.74 | 88.38 | 2.94 | 651,808.91 | 248,916.71 | 37,144.25 | 25.92 |
| North Gwinnett | #1 (6) | 10-2 | 79.05 | 91.49 | 2.14 | 80,913.47 | 40,985.21 | 16,550.58 | 59.42 |
| Lowndes | #2 (1) | 9-3 | 77.76 | 90.57 | 2.39 | 252,560.98 | 120,411.70 | 15,596.09 | 63.12 |
| Tift County | #4 (1) | 8-4 | 76.22 | 91.53 | 2.38 | 338,049.15 | 28,359.19 | 9,686.30 | 102.24 |
| Milton | #1 (5) | 10-2 | 73.47 | 89.55 | 2.45 | 348,191.09 | 88,583.17 | 8,302.61 | 119.44 |
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds. | Class AAAAAA brackets, schedules
| Team | Seed | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee County | #1 (1) | 12-0 | 90.41 | 60.36 | 4.72 | 944,117.53 | 918,101.05 | 857,172.89 | 0.17 |
| Valdosta | #2 (1) | 8-4 | 66.66 | 73.14 | 3.15 | 659,933.97 | 429,053.23 | 57,271.52 | 16.46 |
| Northside (Warner Robins) | #3 (1) | 7-5 | 63.77 | 73.74 | 3.02 | 672,166.45 | 313,113.81 | 34,402.45 | 28.07 |
| Creekview | #1 (6) | 12-0 | 62.14 | 75.52 | 2.11 | 55,882.47 | 38,178.81 | 17,873.13 | 54.95 |
| Coffee | #4 (1) | 9-3 | 57.97 | 74.34 | 2.71 | 659,260.39 | 34,576.21 | 12,807.08 | 77.08 |
| Dacula | #1 (8) | 10-2 | 58.89 | 74.35 | 2.51 | 340,066.03 | 161,452.86 | 12,623.58 | 78.22 |
| Sequoyah | #2 (6) | 10-2 | 55.45 | 74.56 | 2.43 | 327,833.55 | 96,380.09 | 5,860.72 | 169.63 |
| Lanier | #2 (8) | 9-3 | 50.23 | 74.93 | 2.35 | 340,739.61 | 9,143.92 | 1,988.64 | 501.86 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds. | Class AAAAA brackets, schedules
| Team | Seed | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warner Robins | #1 (1) | 11-1 | 80.51 | 68.69 | 3.90 | 956,060.18 | 536,165.22 | 403,437.32 | 1.48 |
| Rome | #1 (7) | 12-0 | 80.37 | 74.25 | 3.29 | 678,960.77 | 350,796.65 | 263,075.16 | 2.80 |
| Buford | #1 (8) | 10-2 | 72.74 | 68.72 | 3.60 | 799,312.02 | 601,615.36 | 203,101.87 | 3.92 |
| Dutchtown | #1 (4) | 12-0 | 72.88 | 77.03 | 2.50 | 321,039.23 | 110,443.90 | 65,748.33 | 14.21 |
| Stockbridge | #2 (4) | 11-1 | 64.71 | 71.17 | 3.01 | 715,652.98 | 251,567.53 | 47,320.66 | 20.13 |
| Bainbridge | #2 (1) | 7-5 | 60.06 | 73.20 | 2.30 | 200,687.98 | 90,364.38 | 11,562.57 | 85.49 |
| Carrollton | #3 (7) | 10-2 | 56.62 | 73.09 | 2.35 | 284,347.02 | 56,452.73 | 5,346.89 | 186.02 |
| Clarke Central | #3 (8) | 8-4 | 50.85 | 77.37 | 2.05 | 43,939.82 | 2,594.23 | 407.21 | 2,454.75 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds. | Class AAAA brackets, schedules
| Team | Seed | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blessed Trinity | #1 (7) | 12-0 | 79.12 | 69.12 | 3.99 | 922,513.62 | 718,592.44 | 350,307.62 | 1.85 |
| Mary Persons | #1 (2) | 12-0 | 83.19 | 74.32 | 3.63 | 763,325.72 | 519,156.74 | 343,455.45 | 1.91 |
| Cartersville | #1 (5) | 12-0 | 76.81 | 73.06 | 3.49 | 913,330.83 | 377,231.91 | 194,970.47 | 4.13 |
| Troup | #2 (5) | 11-1 | 69.52 | 74.00 | 3.13 | 816,977.13 | 242,729.58 | 66,634.16 | 14.01 |
| Marist | #2 (7) | 10-2 | 72.62 | 79.42 | 2.38 | 236,674.28 | 97,597.61 | 40,992.52 | 23.39 |
| Eastside | #1 (4) | 12-0 | 54.35 | 75.93 | 2.10 | 77,486.38 | 19,912.94 | 1,598.73 | 624.50 |
| Cairo | #1 (1) | 10-2 | 53.42 | 75.75 | 2.20 | 183,022.87 | 18,765.04 | 1,385.83 | 720.59 |
| Baldwin | #1 (3) | 7-5 | 53.26 | 77.89 | 2.09 | 86,669.17 | 6,013.73 | 655.23 | 1,525.19 |
Class AAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds. | Class AAA brackets, schedules
| Team | Seed | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Grove | #1 (5) | 11-1 | 75.74 | 66.39 | 3.75 | 845,926.15 | 549,872.40 | 354,222.79 | 1.82 |
| Calhoun | #1 (6) | 12-0 | 71.15 | 64.17 | 3.83 | 968,446.23 | 589,502.90 | 268,165.49 | 2.73 |
| Monroe Area | #1 (8) | 12-0 | 71.54 | 67.43 | 3.42 | 834,519.12 | 380,588.75 | 207,351.86 | 3.82 |
| Peach County | #1 (4) | 10-2 | 69.12 | 68.53 | 3.18 | 715,245.82 | 333,007.86 | 135,692.89 | 6.37 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) | #3 (5) | 8-4 | 61.05 | 71.67 | 2.38 | 284,754.18 | 75,804.23 | 18,388.43 | 53.38 |
| Benedictine | #1 (3) | 11-1 | 58.71 | 71.82 | 2.21 | 154,073.85 | 42,770.18 | 10,854.20 | 91.13 |
| Pierce County | #1 (2) | 12-0 | 55.36 | 71.58 | 2.20 | 165,480.88 | 26,768.67 | 5,266.79 | 188.87 |
| Jenkins | #3 (3) | 9-3 | 38.05 | 71.16 | 2.03 | 31,553.77 | 1,685.00 | 57.55 | 17,376.50 |
Class AA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds. | Class AA brackets, schedules
| Team | Seed | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockmart | #1 (7) | 12-0 | 68.87 | 57.01 | 3.94 | 858,635.16 | 649,057.09 | 432,454.72 | 1.31 |
| Dublin | #1 (3) | 11-1 | 65.98 | 58.74 | 3.61 | 761,150.96 | 560,822.74 | 292,458.89 | 2.42 |
| Washington County | #3 (3) | 10-2 | 59.07 | 63.14 | 2.71 | 489,501.54 | 151,830.33 | 67,193.52 | 13.88 |
| Callaway | #2 (5) | 10-2 | 58.35 | 62.70 | 2.73 | 510,498.46 | 151,357.01 | 64,472.85 | 14.51 |
| Fitzgerald | #2 (1) | 9-3 | 56.76 | 62.37 | 2.71 | 496,750.05 | 162,001.35 | 51,288.31 | 18.50 |
| Rabun County | #1 (8) | 11-1 | 55.75 | 61.62 | 2.72 | 503,249.95 | 165,475.77 | 49,089.73 | 19.37 |
| Heard County | #1 (5) | 10-2 | 54.39 | 62.72 | 2.38 | 238,849.04 | 111,700.14 | 30,266.35 | 32.04 |
| Jefferson County | #1 (4) | 10-2 | 50.83 | 63.24 | 2.20 | 141,364.84 | 47,755.57 | 12,775.63 | 77.27 |
Class A - Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds. | Class A-Public brackets, schedules
| Team | Seed | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irwin County | #1 (2) | 11-0 | 71.50 | 49.49 | 4.50 | 951,478.03 | 854,177.34 | 694,465.66 | 0.44 |
| Clinch County | #6 (2) | 10-1 | 60.21 | 56.07 | 3.66 | 831,178.13 | 628,146.51 | 196,875.52 | 4.08 |
| Pelham | #4 (1) | 11-0 | 51.78 | 58.73 | 3.10 | 916,215.23 | 128,834.11 | 52,741.65 | 17.96 |
| Marion County | #2 (4) | 11-0 | 50.03 | 57.75 | 3.09 | 769,058.04 | 273,936.11 | 43,822.99 | 21.82 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | #3 (6) | 10-1 | 43.13 | 60.20 | 2.24 | 168,821.87 | 64,528.19 | 6,105.76 | 162.78 |
| Commerce | #9 (8) | 10-2 | 42.88 | 62.29 | 2.07 | 48,521.97 | 15,098.09 | 3,562.82 | 279.68 |
| Schley County | #7 (4) | 9-2 | 39.14 | 60.60 | 2.27 | 230,941.96 | 33,389.20 | 2,278.39 | 437.91 |
| Greene County | #5 (7) | 9-2 | 29.00 | 61.66 | 2.09 | 83,784.77 | 1,890.46 | 147.20 | 6,792.48 |
Class A - Private
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds. | Class A-Private brackets, schedules
| Team | Seed | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagle's Landing Christian | #3 (5) | 10-1 | 56.16 | 45.12 | 3.98 | 917,359.53 | 672,993.72 | 388,309.86 | 1.58 |
| Athens Academy | #1 (8) | 11-0 | 55.72 | 46.99 | 3.75 | 844,355.62 | 579,705.37 | 329,450.15 | 2.04 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | #4 (8) | 10-1 | 50.96 | 49.16 | 3.31 | 814,119.02 | 342,871.81 | 156,864.63 | 5.37 |
| Savannah Christian | #2 (3) | 10-1 | 47.07 | 48.57 | 3.17 | 792,818.65 | 279,807.13 | 101,855.45 | 8.82 |
| Calvary Day | #8 (3) | 10-1 | 39.95 | 53.42 | 2.21 | 155,644.38 | 44,528.34 | 10,396.19 | 95.19 |
| North Cobb Christian | #5 (6) | 10-1 | 37.33 | 53.10 | 2.23 | 185,880.98 | 32,894.48 | 6,345.62 | 156.59 |
| Fellowship Christian | #7 (6) | 10-1 | 34.79 | 52.49 | 2.24 | 207,181.35 | 26,846.24 | 4,065.58 | 244.97 |
| Darlington | #6 (6) | 9-2 | 33.23 | 52.58 | 2.11 | 82,640.47 | 20,352.91 | 2,712.51 | 367.66 |
