The Buccaneers have been the class of the NFC South for four consecutive seasons. Yes, that bar has been low lately. The Bucs won the division with a losing record in 2022. They’ll repeat as champs with a 9-8 mark if they win at Carolina on Sunday. But Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl with Tom Brady, and they’ve managed to stay competitive without him.
No matter how the regular season’s final weekend turns out, the Bucs already pulled off what the Falcons couldn’t. They splurged on contracts for aging players and fielded a contender while pushing salary-cap penalties into the future. It will be time for the Bucs to pay up during the coming offseason. Cap constraints likely will force them to depart with several key players.
The best team in the NFL’s worst division will be weakened. The Falcons and Saints weren’t far behind the Bucs to begin with (the Panthers have much, much further to go). Now there will be an opening to leapfrog Tampa Bay. Doing it will depend on many variables. Some of the most important ones (other than dumb luck) are player talent, quarterbacks, salary-cap health and coaching.
All in all, the Saints are in better position than the Falcons to take control of the South in 2024. They have more talent, a better quarterback and a coach who’s not any worse than Arthur Smith. The Saints will have to massage the salary cap, but that’s nothing new.
If the Falcons aren’t as talented as the Saints, at least the gap isn’t as large as it was only two years ago. That’s when the Falcons reset their salary cap. It’s in good shape for 2024. The Saints started working on their projected $80 million cap overage by restructuring Marshon Lattimore’s contract. There’s more for them to do, but it’s manageable.
That leaves quarterbacks and coaching. We know all about how Smith blundered with his quarterbacks. It ultimately could lead to Smith losing his job in a few days.
Smith went from calling criticism of Desmond Ridder “toxic groupthink” in October ... to benching Ridder for Taylor Heinicke not long after saying that. ... to making Ridder the starter again ... to going back to Heinicke after Smith foolishly trusted Ridder at Carolina and got a predictable result. Ridder might start Sunday if Heinicke (ankle) can’t play.
The Saints did better than the Falcons with their quarterback (another low bar). They signed the top free agent, Derek Carr, to a contract with $150 million guaranteed. He’s been up-and-down while dealing with injuries. Carr’s 2024 salary is guaranteed for $30 million. The Saints are pretty much committed to sticking with Carr, restructuring his contract and improving the offensive line.
Like Smith, Saints coach Dennis Allen hasn’t distinguished himself. Allen was 8-28 as Raiders coach from 2012-14. He’s 15-18 with the Saints. NFL Network reported last month that Allen was in a “good spot” as far as job security. Then the Saints beat the Bucs to put themselves into position to make the playoffs should the Bucs stumble at Carolina.
The Falcons are in the same boat. Only team owner Arthur Blank knows for sure if Smith will be retained should the Falcons not get lucky and make the playoffs. Blank left an out by defining being competitive as something less than making the playoffs in the NFL’s weakest division. If Blank decides to retain Smith, it will be despite the coach and play-caller failing to construct a good offense.
The Falcons used high draft picks to select tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson. The team spent heavily on building the veteran offensive line. After all those investments, Smith has engineered the NFL’s No. 26 scoring offense. That’s worse than the Falcons did last season (15th) and equal to Smith’s first season.
The Falcons can win the South despite their flaws. It wasn’t always like this in the division. It peaked in 2017, when three of four teams made the playoffs. The division-champion Saints beat the second-place Panthers in the wild-card round. The third-place Falcons won a wild-card game at the Rams.
Since that year, South teams have earned one of 13 available wild cards. The division isn’t likely to get a wild card this season, either. In a league designed for bad teams to turn around quickly, the Panthers, Saints and Falcons have struggled to rebuild.
The Panthers have hit rock bottom. The Saints fell off without Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They need to beat the Falcons to avoid a second consecutive losing season. The Falcons kept Dan Quinn and Matt Ryan around too long. They already clinched a third consecutive losing season.
Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot get a pass for their first season. There wasn’t much talent after the cap purge. The Falcons finished 7-10 again in 2022, but there was tangible progress with the offense improving from awful to average. The Falcons will be 7-10 again with a loss Sunday.
The Bucs should have been also-rans by now, but they’ve taken advantage of the flailing by the Falcons and Saints. Tampa Bay went all-in to sign Brady before the 2020 season. It paid off with the franchise’s second Super Bowl title. Tampa Bay splurged on salaries to keep the roster intact and won the NFC South in 2021 and 2022.
Brady retired before this season. The Bucs signed quarterback Baker Mayfield to a make-good contract. He’s done so while leading them to the cusp of another South title. Now the Bucs may not be able re-sign Mayfield because of cap limits. The same goes for wide receiver Mike Evans, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and linebacker Lavonte David.
The Bucs aren’t likely to have as many good players or as much quality depth (or both) in 2024. There will be an opening for the Falcons and Saints. The choices both teams make in the coming weeks will determine which one takes advantage. The Saints will start from a better position.
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