Trump leads in New Hampshire, but a second loss could reshape race

All the public polls leading into the final days before the vote show the billionaire far ahead of the Republican field, and a second loss for Trump following his runner-up finish in Iowa — where polls going into the final weekend also pegged him as the leader — could devastate his presidential hopes.

What’s harder to define is what will become of the jumble of candidates seeking to emerge as the leading GOP alternative to the brazen billionaire. Polls show a tangled mess of mainstream candidates competing for second place, and Tuesday’s vote could be a make-or-break moment for some of them.

Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s strong third-place finish in Iowa helped him make the case that he’s the Republican who can unite the party, but his uneven performance in Saturday’s debate in Manchester raised fresh doubts among some New Hampshire residents about his experience.

A trio of governors who are his chief rivals for the establishment vote may have even more to prove.

Once the perceived front-runner, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has fully embraced his famous family name after falling to sixth place in Iowa. He drafted his mother to stump for him in frigid New Hampshire, and his brother and father, both former presidents, aired commercials on his behalf. To growing crowds, he's displayed a more aggressive side by calling Trump a "liar and a whiner" and describing Rubio's debate style as "weird."

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has sharpened his attacks as well, depicting Rubio as the “boy in the bubble” and painting him as the riskiest choice for voters who favor establishment candidates. At a town hall meeting in the seaside city of Hampton, he compared the Florida senator to a shiny new truck and himself to the dirt-spattered, but reliable, older model.

“No one can throw more mud in American politics than Hillary Clinton,” Christie said Sunday of the Democratic front-runner. “And last night I wanted to show you – do you want the new truck or the old truck? You nominate the old truck, I’m going to run her right over on the way to the White House.”

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, the third of the trio, has taken a sunnier message to more than 100 town hall meetings across the state. Several voters at those events said they are leaning toward supporting Kasich, but they worry that he’s not doing better in the polls after investing so much time in the Granite State.

“I like that Kasich isn’t all that ideological. He’s got the best experience,” said Chris Crawford, who is torn between the Ohioan and several other candidates. “I care more about that type of thing. It’s unfortunate he’s not doing better. He’s a problem-solver.”

No apologies

Rubio, meanwhile, has made no apologies amid criticism that four times he repeated the same talking points bashing President Barack Obama even as he was facing attacks on the substance of his policy platform from Christie.

“People think it’s a bad thing, but I’m going to keep saying it. I don’t care how much it bothers people in the media, upsets people on Twitter,” Rubio said at a Sunday campaign event. “This president is trying to change America. We are going to be America again.”

And some supporters say the debate only reinforced their pick.

“Governor Christie knows he doesn’t have a prayer, and he wasn’t doing any favors to any of his Republican competitors that really do have a chance,” said Jim Cartwright, a Rubio backer. “I wish he and the other candidates who don’t have a prayer would just drop out and open the way to those who do.”

Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, the Iowa winner, may have the least expectations. The Republican electorate here is much more independent-minded and moderate than the deeply conservative and religious voting bloc that propelled him to victory last week in Iowa. He’s focused on small towns in more rural parts of the state, trying to persuade Libertarian voters to support his bid.

And two other outsiders, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, hope to muster enough support to stay in the race at least until the Feb. 20 GOP primary in South Carolina.

Late breakers

The race is still deeply in flux — and deeply unpredictable. Some polls show roughly a third of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire haven’t made up their mind.

Among the late breakers is Jay McCarthy, who said he was a Bush supporter until the debate. Now he’s siding with Christie — and encouraging his wife, who is in Florida, to cast her absentee ballot for him as well.

“I tell you, I was gonna vote for Jeb until Chris stuffed it down Rubio’s throat last night. He really stuffed him,” McCarthy said. “I definitely want a governor, and this guy has what it takes.”

The muddled mess of establishment candidates sniping at each other is expected to help Trump, who relies on an outsider appeal and a say-anything candor to draw support.

With the shifting dynamics of the race, he’s added more traditional campaign stops to the roster of raucous rallies he’s staged throughout the state. And the bombast that evaporated in the hours after his Iowa defeat has returned, with Trump predicting a big victory and a newly invigorated voter turnout machine.

“We’re at the beginning of a very, very important last few days. This is really crunch time,” he said to a crowd of hundreds at a rally Monday. “This is going to lead to one of the most important presidential elections, maybe the most important in many, many decades. You’re going to play such a big role.”