This exclusive Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of 1003 registered voters statewide was conducted Monday through Thursday by Abt SRBI of New York. The poll included 839 likely voters. The margin of error for the registered voter sample is 3.9 percentage points. For the likely voter sample, it is 4.26 percentage points.
The survey used both traditional landline and cell phones. The data are weighted based on mode (cell-only, landline-only and mixed), region (metro vs. nonmetro), gender, age, race, education and ethnicity (Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic). Some totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.
18 days until vote
Friday marks 18 days until Americans vote in federal and state races on Nov. 8. All year, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has brought you the key moments in those races, and it will continue to cover the campaign's main events, examine the issues and analyze candidates' finance reports until the last ballot is counted. You can follow the developments on the AJC's politics page at http://www.myajc.com/s/news/georgia-politics/ and in the Political Insider blog at http://www.myajc.com/s/news/political-insider/. You can also track our coverage on Twitter at https://twitter.com/GAPoliticsNews or Facebook at https://facebook.com/gapoliticsnewsnow.
The presidential race in Georgia could come down to the wire.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Friday shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked with less than three weeks until Election Day. Trump is leading Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent among likely Georgia voters, which is within the poll’s margin of error. Libertarian Gary Johnson trails at 9 percent.
Georgia has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton's 1992 victory, but a string of recent polls show a tightening race for the state's 16 electoral votes. A Trump defeat in Georgia would be devastating for the candidate, who is trailing Clinton in national polls and in must-win battleground states.
The poll found both candidates remain deeply unpopular in Georgia, with about six in 10 voters saying they had negative views of both Trump and Clinton. And a significant portion of voters — one-third of Clinton’s supporters and almost one-half of Trump’s backers — said they see their pick for president more as a vote against the opponent.
“I don’t agree with everything about Hillary, but she’s the lesser of two evils,” said Tru Lysander, a 47-year-old truck driver from Stone Mountain. “It’s like picking bad fruit — you pick the best of the group.”
There are growing signs Trump is dragging down other Republicans with him. U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson maintains a hefty lead over his two rivals, Democrat Jim Barksdale and Libertarian Allen Buckley. But in a race against two little-known opponents, he fell short of the 50 percent plus 1 that he needs to avoid a runoff.
And part of the reason is that he’s bleeding Republicans like Rebbeca Digiuro, a 43-year-old in DeKalb County who said Trump so disgusts her she’s voting for Clinton for president. That disdain is driving her to do what she said was once unthinkable.
“I’ve never voted for a Democratic Senate candidate in my life, but Isakson is still supporting Trump,” Digiuro said. “I don’t see how people can say, ‘I’m a committed Christian’ and put him … he is the most un-Christ-like person to run for public office.”
‘No confidence’
It comes after a devastating few weeks for Trump's campaign. Scores of high-profile Republicans abandoned the GOP nominee after incendiary remarks in an "Access Hollywood" videotape surfaced, and several women have accused him of forcibly groping or kissing them. He has denied their claims, accusing some of seeking fame.
And Trump struggles with even solid conservatives over whether he is fit to serve in office. More than half of Georgia voters say Trump is not qualified to lead the country, and 62 percent told pollsters he doesn’t have the temperament or personality to serve effectively in the White House.
“I don’t like Clinton, but I don’t care for Trump,” said Matthew Lainhart, a 33-year-old warehouse manager from Barrow County who is typically a Republican voter. “So I’ve got to support Gary Johnson, even though I don’t feel good about it.”
The Clinton campaign has looked to broaden her electoral map by stepping up its efforts in reliably conservative states such as Arizona. That strategy has largely bypassed Georgia and its 16 electoral votes, though a pro-Clinton super PAC poured at least $1 million in an ad blitz this week in the state.
Yet Clinton, who had a 4-point lead over Trump in the AJC's August poll, has a laundry list of her own problems in Georgia. Although a majority of voters believe she's qualified to serve as president, almost two-thirds don't see her as "honest and trustworthy." That includes nearly all Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats.
“I definitely have no confidence in the trustworthiness of Mrs. Clinton,” said Stephen Hatcher, an educator in Dacula who is among the 4 percent of Georgia voters who haven’t made up their minds. “She has a real problem relative to her honesty with the American people, and she skates along a thin line with what is legal and not legal.”
A gaping gender divide
The same sharp demographic divides that are playing out nationwide are echoing in Georgia.
Trump has built a solid lead among men — 50 percent to 35 percent — while women favor Clinton by 48 percent to 37 percent. Some 66 percent of men have a negative perception of Clinton, while 64 percent of women have an unfavorable view of Trump.
Almost two-thirds of white voters say they’ll back Trump, but his support among minorities has almost bottomed out. Only 3 percent of black Georgians back his campaign, and most of the rest — about 90 percent — say they’re behind Clinton.
The poll shows a stark split among older and younger voters, too. More voters under age 65 are backing Clinton than Trump, though a solid majority of voters 65 and older are siding with the Republican.
Nearly 60 percent of voters view Trump’s treatment of women as a legitimate issue in the presidential race in light of his crude comments. By contrast, less than one-third of voters see Bill Clinton’s treatment of women as a key factor. But it’s unclear whether Trump’s remarks have left lasting damage on his campaign.
“He’s had scandals with women, but it’s not like it’s a new thing. He’s had multiple marriages, affairs — it’s just not a big deal to me,” said Kevin Puckett, a 38-year-old Canton educator. “To me, the questions about Hillary’s emails, they really do impact your life.”
Puckett is among the skeptical Republicans who are a bright spot for Trump in the poll. The vast majority of Republicans — 85 percent — say they will back their party's nominee. But only four in 10 independents, a traditionally conservative voting bloc in Georgia, say they are behind Trump.
A down-ticket drag
Democrats across the nation are trying to tie Trump to down-ticket candidates, though that task is harder in Georgia. The state’s GOP establishment has stood by him, though many have criticized some of his more controversial statements, and the poll helps explain why.
Nearly half of Georgia Republicans say they’re more likely to vote for an elected official who supports Trump — and an additional 38 percent said it wouldn’t make any difference. Only a small fraction of Georgia GOP voters — 6 percent — say backing the GOP nominee makes them less likely to vote for that politician.
Claims the New York businessman has made about a "rigged" election have not gained much traction in Georgia. Nearly 80 percent of voters say they are confident their vote for president will be accurately counted. And only 10 percent of Georgians say they will not accept the outcome of the election if the candidate they support loses.
“It’s totally sour grapes. And it’s a dangerous claim to make. Our whole democracy is based on our belief that our vote matters,” said A.J. Norris, a 49-year-old operations manager in Decatur. “When you begin to question that, you really shake people’s confidence and we give voice to people who can be dangerous to our democracy.”
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