School takeover plan could be Deal’s toughest — and most vital — sale

Deal has long been proud of his cozy relationship with lawmakers, an open-door policy that’s led to some of his proudest legislative achievements. But he’s never taken on a fight so big as his proposal to create a new statewide district that can take over failing schools, convert them into charters or shut them down.

For some Republicans, including those who virulently oppose federal Common Core guidelines, it presents a new intrusion on sacred local control over schools. Key Democrats view it as a distraction from a broader debate over stabilizing poverty-stricken neighborhoods and pouring more resources into needy schools.

The governor has cast the proposal as a moral imperative and says often the state should be the safety net for a wave of children failed by low-performing schools. His aides are confident they will be able to secure the daunting two-thirds vote needed in each chamber of the General Assembly to cross the finish line.

But a failure could have great consequences for the governor. Fresh off a solid re-election victory, his prestige and power in the statehouse have rarely been higher. A defeat here could risk him being labeled the dreaded “lame duck” and force him to scale back other ambitious proposals.

“It’s a tough fight that he’s picked. Two-thirds is a big hill to climb,” said Kerwin Swint, a Kennesaw State University political scientist. “He knows he has to get it done this year; next year will be too late. He won’t get much support from the other side of the aisle, so that means a full-court press among Republicans.”

Choosing charm over pressure

Deal has so far used more of the carrot than the stick to entice supporters. His aides have had quiet conversations with Democrats who are receptive to the idea, along with wary Republicans, and he picked a group of legislative leaders to travel with him to New Orleans last week for a sobering lesson on the challenges of a similar program in Louisiana.

The trip began with a discussion of Louisiana’s system with a range of state leaders shortly after the delegation arrived, and it ended a day later after visits to two schools that were reborn through the initiative.

“Let’s take the lessons we’ve learned back with us,” the governor said. “We’re in that early stage and so we have that flexibility. If there are ideas you’ve heard that you don’t think we’ve incorporated, I hope you’ll share it with us.”

As the 40-day legislative session draws nearer to its April 2 end date, though, the governor may soon begin to turn up the pressure on the bill’s opponents.

He’s got 38 co-sponsors for his proposal in the Senate — precisely the number he needs — but there’s no guarantee they stick with him. Reaching the two-thirds mark in the House, where there’s an ever-shifting range of GOP factions, may prove a greater challenge.

Many Democrats have raised concerns about the proposal, but others have sounded more receptive. Among them is House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who peppered speakers with questions during the trip. Deal doesn’t necessarily need Abrams’ support for his proposal to succeed — a pledge that she won’t actively block it could help secure its passage.

Rank-and-file Republicans, meanwhile, are sure to be squeezed by their party leaders to support it. House Pro Tem Jan Jones, who was also a part of the delegation, said she knows it might not be an easy sell with some GOP lawmakers.

“The greater risk is that we keep doing what we’re doing,” she added.

Change in tactics a possibility

Deal could be forced to take hardball tactics more openly embraced by his predecessor Sonny Perdue. In one of the more public tiffs with lawmakers, Perdue called a special session in 2004 to fill a $57 million hole in the budget. He threatened to veto the budget and call another special session if legislators failed to act.

It would be a decided shift for Deal, who has built generally warm relations with lawmakers in both chambers to secure vast changes to the criminal justice system, a number of tax cuts and legislation he credits with saving the HOPE scholarship.

Even measures that curtailed his office’s power, such as last year’s move to give lawmakers the final say on expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, were endorsed by his office.

The governor’s focus on his school plan comes at a price. He’s put the brunt of his energy behind pushing his proposal and advocating for an increase in transportation revenue. It’s forced him to delay an overhaul of the school funding formula he pledged during his re-election campaign along with other legislative pitches.

It also means he may be willing to make other concessions. Take, for instance, his stance on controversial legislation that supporters say is designed to prevent government intrusion on religious freedom. Last year, he pointedly said the proposal was not on his radar. This year, though, he’s been quick to note that he supported a federal version of the law.

“He must really think this will be part of his legacy, and that it will in fact improve education,” Swint said. “It could mean a combination of sharp elbows, mixed in with some pot sweeteners to individual legislators.”