Incumbents’ financial advantage + friendly redistricting = long odds for challengers

2. Sen. Don Balfour, R-Snellville, $675,958

3. House Speaker David Ralston, R-Blue Ridge, $620,263

4. House Ways and Means Chairman Mickey Channell, R-Greensboro, $351,539

5. House Rules Chairman John Meadows, R-Calhoun, $284,604

6. Senate Health and Human Services Chairwoman Renee Unterman, R-Buford, $275,674

7. Senate Majority Caucus Chairman Butch Miller, R-Gainesville, $183,475

8. Senate Rules Chairman Jeff Mullis, R-Chickamauga, $170,189

9. House Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones, R-Milton, $166,810

10. House Health and Human Services Chairwoman Sharon Cooper, R-Marietta, $152,326

Source: Campaign finance reports

The crowds began gathering early Monday in the Capitol’s expansive lobby, and they didn’t stop filing in until four days later. By the week’s end, hundreds of candidates had qualified for political office. And for most incumbents, a cakewalk awaits to another term.

Qualifying week brought a cascade of candidates with their eyes on November. But despite hundreds of offices up for grabs, most candidates face no opposition. Redrawn political districts have etched out safe zones for most incumbents. And those who have managed to get elected wield an almost insurmountable financial advantage.

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis found that incumbent state lawmakers together have roughly $11 million in campaign cash ready to unload against anyone with the temerity to mount a challenge. A fund aimed at protecting House incumbents has raised an additional $762,000.

That may help explain why only about one-third of incumbents seeking re-election in the Legislature face opponents.

The challenges only stiffen for those seeking higher offices. Republicans, who won every statewide post four years ago, have amassed nearly $8.5 million to maintain their foothold. All told, statewide and legislative incumbents have raised nearly $20 million to protect their offices.

‘Nobody really wanted to do this’

The lack of competitive down-ticket races is a perennial one. The Republican majority in the Legislature redrew the political lines after the 2010 census, making most districts virtually unwinnable by Democrats. Meanwhile, minority Democratic districts were reworked to make them largely impossible for a Republican to prevail.

The perks of incumbency, and the campaign cash that goes along with it, only complicate a would-be challenger’s strategy.

“It’s called public service for a reason,” said Elena Parent, a former Democratic state representative now running for an open Senate district that stretches from east Atlanta to Decatur. “Our goal needs to be getting more people, particularly women, to run for office. People know it can be difficult to beat a sitting legislator.”

With lopsided districts, many incumbents are more worried about a May 20 primary challenge than they are the general election. More than a dozen Democrats face competitive intraparty contests. And there are about 30 GOP primary contests, many waged by tea party supporters seeking to oust lawmakers deemed too moderate.

One challenge takes aim at state Rep. Mark Hamilton, a Cumming Republican first elected in 2006. His Republican challenger, Sheri Smallwood Gilligan, said she knows she faces steep odds, if only because Hamilton will have an "i" next to his name branding him as an incumbent. But she's willing to take the gamble.

“For eight years now my opponent has never faced a serious challenger. And I think it’s time he had a little competition,” said Gilligan, a substitute teacher and technical school instructor in Forsyth County. “I kept looking around, and nobody really wanted to do this. So I did.”

The built-in advantages of incumbency have created a frenzy for the few open seats. Shortly after Senate Majority Leader Ronnie Chance, R-Tyrone, announced he would retire, seven Republicans announced for the contest.

The same thing happened when Republican John Barge decided to vacate the state school superintendent’s post and run for governor. Nine Republicans have entered the race along with six Democrats who see a rare opening to take a statewide spot.

A ‘security blanket’ for officeholders

Analysts point to several reasons for the lack of challenges. Redistricting and financial advantages have surely given incumbents a “security blanket,” but the media attention on marquee races at the top of the ticket also doesn’t help, said Kerwin Swint, a Kennesaw State University political analyst.

“Legislative races are taking a back seat to all the statewide activity this year — the open U.S. Senate seat and the governor’s race,” said Swint, a former political operative who studies campaign rhetoric. “That can sometimes drain the fundraising pool, as well as party commitments and other resources.”

George Hooks, a former long-serving legislator who retired in 2012, sees campaign financing as the root of the problem.

“It’s gotten more and more and more expensive. The ability to raise campaign funds or have personal funds has gotten to be a major favor,” said Hooks, a Democrat who is a legislative historian. “When I first ran for the House 34 years ago, little thought was given to how much money you had to raise.”

Changing tactics

Both parties have had to recalculate their strategies.

Democrats, whose commanding majorities in both chambers gave way to overwhelmed minorities in the past 12 years, hope to swing a handful of legislative districts their way this year. But they rest their best chances at chipping away at the GOP’s dominance on Jason Carter, the gubernatorial candidate, and Michelle Nunn, who is running for the open U.S. Senate seat.

“Because of reapportionment, the nature of the election has changed,” Democratic Party Chairman DuBose Porter said. “But you can’t reapportion the state.”

Republicans, meanwhile, will be forced to play defense within their own caucus about as often as they have to square off against Democrats. Some challenges they view as welcome, such as the primary opponent facing state Rep. Sam Moore, the Macedonia Republican who was recently forced to apologize after he proposed scrapping sex-offender restrictions.

Others will be met with a hefty injection of campaign cash.

State Sen. Don Balfour, recently acquitted on fraud charges, has more than $670,000 at his disposal as he faces three challengers. House Speaker David Ralston has $620,000 to combat the wrestling coach he’s facing. And Senate President Pro Tem David Shafer, who faces a Democratic union organizer, has nearly $900,000 at his disposal.

Chance, the exiting Senate majority leader, said the wild card in the primaries is the fact that they’ve been moved up two months and many voters may not even know there is a spring vote.

“Given the fact that we have an election on May 20, the earliest we’ve had a primary, I don’t know what to expect,” Chance said. “I don’t know what to anticipate in the turnout because that’s where incumbents have the advantage, having the high turnout, because voters recognize the (incumbent’s) name.”

Hooks is still expecting most incumbents to win, as they always have.

“Incumbents have an advantage,” he said. “Like it or not, that’s the way the game is.”