The Falcons needed a center. They went out and signed the best center available in free agency, Alex Mack, a player who is a perfect fit for their zone blocking scheme. The Falcons are a better team now than they were before the start of free agency.
All of these things are indisputable. What's also indisputable is that the Falcons overpaid for Mack, who gets $20 million guaranteed and is likely to get another $8 million next year. Teams that sign top-tier free agents from other teams always overpay, and such acquisitions have been hit-or-miss. The best NFL organizations build their core talent through the draft, re-sign their own pending free agents and plug holes with free agents from other teams.
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That’s not to say the Falcons were wrong to sign Mack. As I said, there is no question they filled a position of need with the best player. They paid what they had to pay to get him. It’s just a reminder that signing marquee free agents always comes with risks in the general sense.
The specific risk for the Falcons with in signing Mack is that he's 30-years old and coming off his worst pro season. He wasn't as effective in 2015 after he suffered a broken fibula and ligament damage during a game in 2014. Sam Monson breaks it down at Pro Football Focus:
In every other season before 2015, Mack has consistently graded out positively, so his career baseline is commensurate with one of the best-paid players at his position—but the most recent evidence is not nearly as promising."
Before his injury Mack had been remarkably durable. He had never missed a game in his previous five seasons. Mack played all 16 games last year, too. Even if Mack plays at a level just slightly above average in 2016 it will be an upgrade for the Falcons. But with so much cap space devoted to Mack over the next three seasons the Falcons need the league's highest-paid center to be something closer to his league-best form.
Centers can age gracefully—Todd “Mud Duck” McClure certainly had a year left in him when the Falcons stupidly forced him out at age 35. It’s reasonable for the Falcons to believe Mack can regain his pre-injury form and play at least three more seasons at a high level. His history suggests he will be durable.
The Falcons overpaid Mack with the hope that’s how it all will come to pass. That’s just the way it goes when NFL teams lure big-time free agents.
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