PHILADELPHIA--After yet another game in which Freddie Freeman hit a solo home run, the Braves slugger said he's "not worried at all" about the batters in front of him struggling to get on base this season.
Instead, Freeman (playfully) said he’s more concerned that he will stop producing so much once his teammates in the Nos. 1 and 2 slots get going.
“They are going to start hitting and hopefully I continue to hit,” Freeman said after the Braves lost 4-3 to the Phillies on Friday. “Hopefully they don’t start hitting and I stop hitting.”
Freeman touched on an important factor about team hitting. Sometimes teams get unlucky with how they string their production together and don’t score as many runs as their offensive production suggests they should.
The Braves have been a bit unlucky early in the season in that respect. That can be illustrated by the "Batting Runs" and "RE24" metrics, as described by Dave Cameron at FanGraphs.
“Batting Runs” is the offensive measure used for the Wins Above Replacement metric. It measures offensive production (adjusted for league and ballparks) but does not account for situations
“RE24” is a run-expectancy metric that accounts for the context of outs and base runners (but not the score or the inning). It assigns more value to production with runners on base than when the bases are empty.
After 16 games, the Braves had a Batting Runs of minus-5.4 and a RE24 of minus-8.91. Subtracting the former from the latter equals minus-3.51, which is the number of runs below expectations the Braves have scored based on their offensive output.
In other words, the Braves have been a bit unlucky with their sequencing, or the order in which they’ve produced hits (and walks). Those 3.51 runs may not sound like much, but consider that the Braves have lost four games by one run.
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Over the long haul sequencing tends to be random, so the Braves’ luck could improve but, right now, they aren’t scoring as many runs as their production suggests. A major reason for that is because their Nos. 1 and 2 hitters aren’t getting on base much, and so Freeman’s superlative production isn’t producing as many runs as it could.
This season Freeman is hitting .397 with four doubles, a triple and the seven homers, but has only nine RBIs. He’s hit six of his seven home runs this season with the bases empty (the other homer was a two-run shot).
Only one player since 1920 has had fewer than nine RBIs with seven homers: Gary Sheffield had eight with the Marlins in 1996. Three players since 1920 other than Freeman then had nine RBIs with seven homers: Eddie Yost (1959), Garrett Jones (2009) and Brian Dozier (2014).
Entering Saturday, Braves No. 1 hitters had a .278 on-base percentage and the No. 2 batters had a .159 on-base percentage. Freeman only had 18 plate appearances with runners on base.
Braves manager Brian Snitker moved Dansby Swanson from No. 2 in the order to No. 8 on Friday and had Adonis Garcia hit No. 2 for the past two games. Garcia went 3-for-8 with a home run and two RBIs as the No. 2 hitter over the past two games.
However, Garcia’s career OBP over 825 plate appearances is just .301. Inciarte had a .351 OBP during his breakout season in 2016.
Even as Inciarte hit four home runs over four games earlier this season — more homers than he had in all of 2016 — he said setting the table for Freeman remains his focus.
“I’ve got to get on base,” Inciarte said Friday. “I’m not saying Freddie has to hit home runs. We are doing the best we can. Adonis did a great job (Friday). It’s just a matter of time before we start scoring some runs.”
The good news for the Braves is that Freeman’s production has been consistent since his early-season slump in 2016.
Even when including that slow start, Freeman has been outstanding. From the beginning of 2016 through Friday (174 games) he was hitting .311 with a .407 on-base percentage and .595 slugging percentage.
With Freeman in a groove, there's a good chance the Braves will score more runs if the Nos. 1 and 2 hitters can get on base consistently.
“No one is worried,” Freeman said. “I’m not worried. I know that’s going to change because our guys are too good.”
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