Mike Budenholzer is going to make decisions over the next seven days that are sure to end up defining his tenure as Hawks boss. They won’t be easy calls.
ESPN reports the Hawks are having internal deliberations about trading core pieces Al Horford, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver before next Thursday's deadline. Here is the crux of the matter, according to that report:
The Hawks won't deny they're tackling the difficult exercise of determining whether to forge ahead with the current core or to disassemble the roster in an effort to retool for the future. Sources close to the organization emphasize that if the Hawks become active in the next week, it will not be to "blow it up," but rather an attempt to exchange their existing players for commensurate, if younger, talent.
Those sources also said head coach/president of basketball operations Mike Budenholzer isn't inclined to dismantle a team less than nine months removed from a conference finals appearance.
My take: Budenholzer doesn't have much choice. The Hawks aren't good enough to topple the Cavs, who seem to have sorted themselves out under new coach Tyronn Lue. If Tiago Splitter is done for the season or can't get his hip right then the outlook gets even worse for the Hawks.
But more important than how the Hawks match up with the Cavs is the fact that Budenholzer's pending decisions aren’t just about now. Committing to this Hawks group now means committing to it for the long haul. I think that’s too risky under the circumstances, and there’s enough value with potential trade pieces that the Hawks can expect a good haul for the ensuing retool.
Don't forget that the Hawks' "magic" of last season was based on four veteran players having career years: Teague, Korver Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll. Carroll is in Toronto now. And while the steep decline that one statistical model projected for Millsap hasn't materialized—he's been at least as good this year as last—Horford has slipped a bit, Teague has fallen off significantly and Korver has cratered.
Signing Horford to a maximum five-year, $144.5 million deal is risky because of his age and injury history. But the Hawks will have to do it if they decide to keep the core together because Horford will get a max offer as a free agent this summer.
If re-signing Horford means the Hawks are keeping the gang together for the long haul then they also might end up having to re-sign Korver after next season. He's showing signs of coming around lately and it's hard to trade an all-time shooter and leader. Maybe Korver's struggles are about those surgeries, as he recently suggested to David Aldridge, but the Hawks have to at least wonder if the sudden decline is about something more.
Teague's team-friendly deal runs through next season but he's the most expendable of the core group because Dennis Schroeder is waiting in the wings. The Hawks plausibly could trade only Teague now and then this summer re-sign Horford to a max deal; re-sign pleasant surprise Kent Bazemore to a reasonable deal; hope Tim Hardaway Jr.'s recent resurgence is real, and then ride into next season with Schroeder and whatever pieces they get for Teague.
Again, these aren’t easy decisions. If Budenholzer is struggling with them, as the ESPN story says, then I get it. But I think he has to let go of those 2015 memories and deal with the reality that the 2016 Hawks aren’t a contender and keeping together a core of declining-or-leveling veterans with no superstar among them isn’t a good long-term strategy.
If that’s the way Budenholzer decides to go, then it was fun while it lasted.
[cmg_cinesport url="http://cinesport.ajc.com/embed/ajc-atlanta-sports/bradley-time-blow-hawks/"]
About the Author
