Maxwell 2019 playoff projections after First Round
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2019 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.
Class AAAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowndes | #1 (1 - AAAAAAA) | 11-0 | 100.68 | 79.03 | 4.19 | 598,613.00 | 0.67 |
| Colquitt County | #2 (1 - AAAAAAA) | 9-2 | 89.31 | 80.99 | 3.33 | 193,206.78 | 4.18 |
| McEachern | #1 (3 - AAAAAAA) | 11-0 | 85.39 | 85.19 | 2.69 | 64,512.21 | 14.50 |
| North Gwinnett | #1 (6 - AAAAAAA) | 10-1 | 84.64 | 85.59 | 2.60 | 53,491.02 | 17.69 |
| Marietta | #2 (3 - AAAAAAA) | 9-2 | 80.64 | 82.76 | 2.63 | 43,981.41 | 21.74 |
| Grayson | #1 (8 - AAAAAAA) | 10-1 | 81.16 | 87.04 | 2.10 | 21,253.86 | 46.05 |
| Mill Creek | #2 (6 - AAAAAAA) | 9-2 | 75.49 | 83.32 | 2.31 | 14,907.79 | 66.08 |
| Archer | #2 (8 - AAAAAAA) | 8-3 | 71.58 | 83.58 | 2.08 | 5,928.83 | 167.67 |
| Parkview | #1 (7 - AAAAAAA) | 10-1 | 71.56 | 84.81 | 1.29 | 3,423.62 | 291.09 |
| Milton | #1 (5 - AAAAAAA) | 8-3 | 64.92 | 84.50 | 1.26 | 562.04 | 1,778.22 |
| Roswell | #1 (4 - AAAAAAA) | 8-2 | 58.91 | 84.33 | 1.20 | 86.36 | 11,578.86 |
| Cherokee | #4 (4 - AAAAAAA) | 8-3 | 55.79 | 85.37 | 1.17 | 19.70 | 50,752.61 |
| East Coweta | #2 (2 - AAAAAAA) | 6-5 | 58.94 | 89.92 | 1.09 | 10.05 | 99,538.31 |
| Norcross | #2 (7 - AAAAAAA) | 6-5 | 54.84 | 89.88 | 1.01 | 2.34 | 427,043.21 |
| Walton | #2 (4 - AAAAAAA) | 6-5 | 52.08 | 89.60 | 1.04 | 0.90 | 1,112,057.48 |
| North Forsyth | #2 (5 - AAAAAAA) | 7-4 | 45.74 | 89.55 | 1.02 | 0.09 | 10,550,144.73 |
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valdosta | #2 (1 - AAAAAA) | 9-2 | 81.93 | 65.93 | 3.78 | 446,198.26 | 1.24 |
| Lee County | #1 (1 - AAAAAA) | 10-1 | 76.79 | 70.19 | 2.93 | 163,691.54 | 5.11 |
| Dacula | #1 (8 - AAAAAA) | 11-0 | 76.82 | 70.47 | 2.89 | 159,991.35 | 5.25 |
| Harrison | #1 (6 - AAAAAA) | 11-0 | 72.97 | 67.50 | 3.20 | 137,563.85 | 6.27 |
| Coffee | #3 (1 - AAAAAA) | 8-3 | 68.97 | 70.30 | 2.37 | 49,500.61 | 19.20 |
| Allatoona | #2 (6 - AAAAAA) | 8-2-1 | 63.62 | 69.88 | 2.18 | 18,766.71 | 52.29 |
| Johns Creek | #1 (7 - AAAAAA) | 10-1 | 62.75 | 71.27 | 1.29 | 10,393.53 | 95.21 |
| Mays | #1 (5 - AAAAAA) | 10-1 | 59.17 | 70.95 | 1.46 | 4,505.33 | 220.96 |
| Lanier | #2 (8 - AAAAAA) | 10-1 | 57.82 | 70.27 | 1.77 | 4,249.86 | 234.30 |
| Houston County | #4 (1 - AAAAAA) | 6-5 | 58.84 | 72.10 | 1.81 | 3,474.37 | 286.82 |
| Stephenson | #1 (4 - AAAAAA) | 10-1 | 51.86 | 70.77 | 1.32 | 557.13 | 1,793.90 |
| Richmond Hill | #1 (2 - AAAAAA) | 7-3 | 50.24 | 70.33 | 1.37 | 406.48 | 2,459.12 |
| South Paulding | #2 (5 - AAAAAA) | 9-2 | 51.73 | 72.54 | 1.40 | 364.99 | 2,738.78 |
| Glynn Academy | #2 (2 - AAAAAA) | 6-4 | 53.24 | 75.71 | 1.09 | 186.86 | 5,350.61 |
| Creekside | #3 (5 - AAAAAA) | 7-4 | 50.79 | 75.66 | 1.07 | 82.88 | 12,064.31 |
| Brunswick | #3 (2 - AAAAAA) | 6-5 | 47.15 | 72.73 | 1.08 | 66.24 | 15,096.19 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrollton | #1 (7 - AAAAA) | 11-0 | 75.37 | 62.60 | 3.35 | 351,502.69 | 1.84 |
| Warner Robins | #1 (1 - AAAAA) | 10-1 | 73.16 | 63.26 | 2.99 | 262,090.20 | 2.82 |
| Dutchtown | #2 (4 - AAAAA) | 10-1 | 63.55 | 62.29 | 2.73 | 76,850.19 | 12.01 |
| Buford | #2 (8 - AAAAA) | 10-1 | 67.75 | 67.59 | 1.87 | 64,353.36 | 14.54 |
| Ware County | #1 (2 - AAAAA) | 8-3 | 66.75 | 66.84 | 1.87 | 61,468.57 | 15.27 |
| Rome | #2 (7 - AAAAA) | 9-2 | 66.26 | 66.54 | 1.74 | 59,326.83 | 15.86 |
| Jones County | #1 (4 - AAAAA) | 10-1 | 60.01 | 61.91 | 2.55 | 44,660.19 | 21.39 |
| Kell | #3 (7 - AAAAA) | 9-2 | 61.03 | 64.18 | 2.26 | 34,898.11 | 27.65 |
| Griffin | #2 (3 - AAAAA) | 10-1 | 57.47 | 63.42 | 2.21 | 19,710.16 | 49.74 |
| Wayne County | #2 (2 - AAAAA) | 8-2 | 58.01 | 65.30 | 1.77 | 13,424.91 | 73.49 |
| Veterans | #2 (1 - AAAAA) | 9-2 | 57.72 | 68.54 | 1.19 | 5,090.13 | 195.46 |
| Clarke Central | #1 (8 - AAAAA) | 8-3 | 53.74 | 65.16 | 1.51 | 4,465.04 | 222.96 |
| Starr's Mill | #1 (3 - AAAAA) | 8-3 | 48.52 | 64.94 | 1.31 | 1,105.82 | 903.31 |
| Hiram | #4 (7 - AAAAA) | 6-5 | 46.98 | 65.21 | 1.31 | 605.44 | 1,650.68 |
| Cedar Shoals | #3 (8 - AAAAA) | 8-3 | 44.72 | 65.19 | 1.21 | 293.09 | 3,410.95 |
| Riverwood | #1 (6 - AAAAA) | 11-0 | 42.48 | 64.88 | 1.14 | 155.27 | 6,439.50 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Creek | #2 (5 - AAAA) | 10-1 | 67.54 | 58.51 | 3.52 | 211,136.71 | 3.74 |
| Cartersville | #1 (5 - AAAA) | 11-0 | 72.07 | 64.26 | 2.96 | 200,921.21 | 3.98 |
| Woodward Academy | #1 (4 - AAAA) | 11-0 | 71.90 | 64.01 | 2.98 | 200,806.87 | 3.98 |
| Marist | #2 (7 - AAAA) | 10-1 | 69.45 | 62.80 | 2.99 | 175,947.55 | 4.68 |
| Blessed Trinity | #1 (7 - AAAA) | 10-1 | 68.23 | 62.99 | 2.99 | 143,048.18 | 5.99 |
| Oconee County | #1 (8 - AAAA) | 10-1 | 60.14 | 63.36 | 2.31 | 34,310.53 | 28.15 |
| West Laurens | #1 (2 - AAAA) | 10-1 | 61.65 | 65.39 | 2.19 | 29,977.87 | 32.36 |
| Carver (Columbus) | #1 (1 - AAAA) | 10-1 | 52.11 | 65.81 | 1.24 | 2,294.18 | 434.89 |
| Mary Persons | #3 (2 - AAAA) | 6-5 | 43.40 | 63.87 | 1.85 | 586.83 | 1,703.08 |
| North Oconee | #2 (8 - AAAA) | 10-1 | 49.60 | 67.91 | 1.25 | 510.83 | 1,956.59 |
| Perry | #2 (2 - AAAA) | 7-4 | 44.62 | 66.16 | 1.18 | 208.67 | 4,791.33 |
| Americus-Sumter | #4 (1 - AAAA) | 6-5 | 39.98 | 64.67 | 1.08 | 99.98 | 10,000.55 |
| Baldwin | #3 (3 - AAAA) | 5-6 | 43.74 | 67.89 | 1.09 | 67.33 | 14,852.17 |
| Thomson | #2 (3 - AAAA) | 6-5 | 44.82 | 69.89 | 1.06 | 55.68 | 17,958.26 |
| St. Pius X | #3 (8 - AAAA) | 6-5 | 41.41 | 69.82 | 1.04 | 17.00 | 58,817.50 |
| Madison County | #4 (8 - AAAA) | 5-6 | 32.69 | 64.40 | 1.25 | 10.58 | 94,502.36 |
Class AAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Grove | #1 (5 - AAA) | 9-2 | 68.96 | 53.20 | 3.11 | 283,193.53 | 2.53 |
| Peach County | #1 (4 - AAA) | 10-1 | 68.27 | 55.82 | 2.91 | 238,583.68 | 3.19 |
| Pierce County | #1 (2 - AAA) | 11-0 | 63.78 | 56.00 | 2.76 | 147,420.98 | 5.78 |
| Jefferson | #1 (8 - AAA) | 9-1 | 59.66 | 49.38 | 2.64 | 108,341.33 | 8.23 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | #1 (7 - AAA) | 10-1 | 57.97 | 52.31 | 2.55 | 60,091.65 | 15.64 |
| North Murray | #1 (6 - AAA) | 10-1 | 55.09 | 55.00 | 2.61 | 58,054.40 | 16.23 |
| Crisp County | #1 (1 - AAA) | 8-3 | 55.43 | 58.16 | 2.30 | 48,343.17 | 19.69 |
| Jenkins | #1 (3 - AAA) | 10-1 | 54.03 | 57.91 | 2.23 | 37,572.34 | 25.62 |
| Appling County | #2 (2 - AAA) | 9-2 | 50.53 | 59.38 | 1.43 | 8,316.24 | 119.25 |
| Dawson County | #3 (7 - AAA) | 8-3 | 47.65 | 100.00 | 1.48 | 4,626.51 | 215.15 |
| North Hall | #2 (7 - AAA) | 8-3 | 46.43 | 59.09 | 1.36 | 2,751.21 | 362.48 |
| Hart County | #2 (8 - AAA) | 9-2 | 47.69 | 56.12 | 1.20 | 1,366.69 | 730.69 |
| Calhoun | #2 (6 - AAA) | 10-1 | 47.31 | 55.90 | 1.12 | 760.46 | 1,313.99 |
| Jackson | #2 (4 - AAA) | 8-3 | 39.89 | 100.00 | 1.21 | 435.41 | 2,295.68 |
| Benedictine | #2 (3 - AAA) | 8-3 | 41.98 | 100.00 | 1.06 | 142.09 | 7,036.72 |
| Cook | #2 (1 - AAA) | 4-7 | 23.13 | 57.34 | 1.03 | 0.29 | 3,410,352.63 |
Class AA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabun County | #1 (8 - AA) | 11-0 | 69.12 | 49.38 | 4.11 | 525,093.74 | 0.90 |
| Rockmart | #1 (7 - AA) | 11-0 | 61.14 | 52.31 | 3.32 | 208,814.36 | 3.79 |
| Hapeville Charter | #1 (6 - AA) | 9-1-1 | 60.22 | 55.00 | 2.97 | 134,009.27 | 6.46 |
| Callaway | #1 (5 - AA) | 10-1 | 56.08 | 53.20 | 2.93 | 96,615.49 | 9.35 |
| Dublin | #1 (3 - AA) | 10-1 | 51.00 | 57.91 | 2.04 | 16,712.71 | 58.83 |
| Brooks County | #2 (1 - AA) | 7-4 | 46.18 | 57.34 | 1.33 | 5,861.07 | 169.62 |
| Fitzgerald | #3 (1 - AA) | 8-3 | 42.91 | 57.06 | 1.34 | 2,695.23 | 370.03 |
| Union County | #2 (8 - AA) | 10-1 | 41.35 | 56.12 | 1.77 | 2,677.14 | 372.53 |
| Douglass | #2 (6 - AA) | 10-1 | 40.62 | 55.90 | 1.83 | 2,447.88 | 407.52 |
| Thomasville | #1 (1 - AA) | 7-4 | 42.89 | 58.16 | 1.60 | 2,116.46 | 471.49 |
| Pepperell | #2 (7 - AA) | 9-2 | 42.13 | 59.09 | 1.50 | 1,286.50 | 776.31 |
| Bremen | #2 (5 - AA) | 8-3 | 41.64 | 60.00 | 1.31 | 776.21 | 1,287.31 |
| Metter | #1 (2 - AA) | 9-2 | 34.68 | 56.00 | 1.41 | 363.60 | 2,749.27 |
| Jefferson County | #1 (4 - AA) | 9-2 | 33.36 | 55.82 | 1.40 | 265.35 | 3,767.64 |
| Swainsboro | #3 (2 - AA) | 8-3 | 37.70 | 60.12 | 1.11 | 201.76 | 4,955.42 |
| Toombs County | #2 (2 - AA) | 8-2 | 33.26 | 59.38 | 1.03 | 63.26 | 15,806.97 |
Class A Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irwin County | #1 (2 - A) | 9-0 | 64.56 | 34.91 | 4.48 | 731,892.35 | 0.37 |
| Clinch County | #4 (2 - A) | 9-1 | 53.70 | 45.06 | 3.19 | 176,598.78 | 4.66 |
| Wilcox County | #11 (2 - A) | 9-2 | 40.23 | 43.95 | 2.46 | 33,589.41 | 28.77 |
| Mitchell County | #3 (1 - A) | 9-1 | 37.17 | 42.84 | 2.55 | 24,442.94 | 39.91 |
| Commerce | #10 (8 - A) | 9-2 | 35.74 | 43.23 | 2.33 | 16,715.21 | 58.83 |
| Bowdon | #5 (6 - A) | 8-2 | 38.27 | 50.33 | 2.10 | 7,217.59 | 137.55 |
| Lincoln County | #7 (7 - A) | 8-2 | 29.20 | 43.96 | 1.65 | 2,939.59 | 339.18 |
| Marion County | #2 (4 - A) | 8-2 | 27.02 | 42.78 | 2.06 | 2,753.22 | 362.21 |
| Pelham | #6 (1 - A) | 9-1 | 30.44 | 45.15 | 1.46 | 2,718.26 | 366.88 |
| Johnson County | #8 (3 - A) | 8-2 | 28.63 | 50.47 | 1.60 | 545.69 | 1,831.55 |
| Turner County | #14 (2 - A) | 7-4 | 23.01 | 45.62 | 1.22 | 244.89 | 4,082.54 |
| Manchester | #9 (4 - A) | 9-2 | 26.16 | 50.72 | 1.42 | 214.17 | 4,668.27 |
| Schley County | #18 (4 - A) | 7-4 | 18.86 | 44.36 | 1.34 | 112.49 | 8,888.58 |
| Emanuel County Institute | #20 (3 - A) | 6-5 | 18.71 | 51.91 | 1.03 | 10.60 | 94,331.73 |
| Warren County | #21 (7 - A) | 7-4 | 16.14 | 51.85 | 1.09 | 4.61 | 216,980.91 |
| Chattahoochee County | #17 (1 - A) | 7-4 | 6.63 | 50.73 | 1.00 | 0.23 | 4,382,922.90 |
Class A Private
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the strength of draw, average depth, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | AvgDepth | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fellowship Christian | #4 (6 - A) | 10-0 | 65.75 | 49.60 | 4.04 | 380,155.12 | 1.63 |
| Holy Innocents | #2 (5 - A) | 10-0 | 69.16 | 55.72 | 3.68 | 338,913.96 | 1.95 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | #6 (5 - A) | 9-1 | 66.36 | 61.58 | 2.74 | 132,880.08 | 6.53 |
| Athens Academy | #3 (8 - A) | 10-0 | 64.39 | 60.13 | 2.83 | 118,633.34 | 7.43 |
| Darlington | #7 (6 - A) | 9-1 | 52.76 | 62.08 | 2.17 | 10,210.89 | 96.93 |
| Wesleyan | #9 (5 - A) | 9-2 | 47.11 | 57.08 | 2.02 | 9,273.05 | 106.84 |
| Christian Heritage | #8 (6 - A) | 9-1 | 44.92 | 57.11 | 1.87 | 5,588.28 | 177.95 |
| Hebron Christian | #12 (8 - A) | 7-4 | 42.34 | 57.52 | 1.80 | 2,726.70 | 365.74 |
| Savannah Country Day | #1 (3 - A) | 10-0 | 36.56 | 55.93 | 1.93 | 988.00 | 1,011.14 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | #11 (8 - A) | 9-2 | 44.76 | 65.84 | 1.11 | 234.44 | 4,264.45 |
| North Cobb Christian | #13 (6 - A) | 8-3 | 35.14 | 58.50 | 1.06 | 190.37 | 5,251.99 |
| Mount de Sales | #5 (7 - A) | 10-0 | 33.11 | 57.84 | 1.33 | 155.64 | 6,424.09 |
| Savannah Christian | #16 (3 - A) | 7-3 | 29.09 | 57.46 | 1.34 | 46.25 | 21,621.02 |
| St. Francis | #18 (6 - A) | 7-4 | 30.37 | 64.00 | 1.02 | 3.71 | 269,322.66 |
| Mount Paran Christian | #23 (6 - A) | 6-4 | 20.51 | 63.89 | 1.04 | 0.12 | 8,569,058.75 |
| Brookstone | #19 (4 - A) | 7-4 | 20.06 | 65.45 | 1.01 | 0.05 | 21,725,486.01 |
