In this age of extremism, temptation tilts Chicago toward either desperation or denial when it comes to the Cubs, leaving the middle ground as empty as so many ballparks this month.
Find it.
The Cubs have won only seven of their first 15 games against a soft spot in the schedule. They have postponed four because of crummy weather. This young season has had more interruptions than a political roundtable discussion, a reality offered as context more than an excuse. The Cubs will deserve criticism if they continue to flirt with .500 around, say, Memorial Day. But it's worth noting the 2017 Cubs opened 8-7, one game better at the same stage, and finished a slog of a season in the National League Championship Series.
So avoid declaring the 2018 Cubs incapable of playing deep into October too. And for anyone on the opposite end of the spectrum already reserving a Wrigley Field rooftop for Game 1 of the NLCS, resist guaranteeing the Cubs will be back again. We haven't seen enough baseball in the first three weeks to feel good about what to expect in six months, making the rush for a pass-fail interpretation of the season a little silly.
We have, however, seen enough to form opinions on ways the Cubs can start looking like the team everyone anticipated. Here are seven — one for every victory.
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1. Everything starts with starting pitching, which must improve. Nothing has been more disappointing. The group manager Joe Maddon called his best ever has two victories after three spins through the rotation and entered the Cardinals series with a collective 5.40 ERA. Only four rotations in the majors had started worse. Tyler Chatwood has been wildly inconsistent. Jose Quintana has looked terribly cold. Yu Darvish allowed himself to be rattled by a balk. None of those three made it past the fifth inning in his most recent start. Conventional wisdom says once the weather warms and the rhythm of regular rest returns, so will everyone's command. It better, and soon.
2. Play Albert Almora Jr. more in center field. Ian Happ struck out 25 times in his first 49 at-bats, a far cry from the way he blistered the ball in spring training. If Happ keeps struggling as the leadoff man, give Almora a chance to win the job at the top of the order as the primary center fielder. The hope is Happ will snap out of the slump quicker than Kyle Schwarber did a year ago, but regardless of his growth, Almora shows signs of being ready for more.
3. Move up Javy Baez in the batting order. Nobody dreads leaving Wrigley Field after Thursday's game more than Baez, who is 8-for-24 with five home runs and 12 RBIs during the homestand — batting sixth. If Maddon wants to preserve the righty-lefty-righty sequence by keeping a slumping Schwarber fifth, then perhaps eventually he will consider moving Baez into the cleanup spot instead of Willson Contreras, who has yet to homer and has driven in just three runs. Baez can be feast or famine with his mighty swings, but if he consistently shows plate discipline and goes to right field as often as he has lately, a big season awaits.
4. Get Anthony Rizzo hitting like Anthony Rizzo. Even before the back injury that landed the slugger on the disabled list for the first time in his career, Rizzo scuffled. Or maybe it was because of the bad back. After Tuesday's game, Rizzo's average had dipped to .097 with one home run and three RBIs. The back of his baseball card says patience will be rewarded and before long he will regain the power stroke that occasionally carries the Cubs.
5. Stop stranding runners in scoring position. Only four teams have left more runners on base than the Cubs' 129 — and each of them has played at least three more games. The Cubs average a robust five runs per game but also have been shut out three times, illustrating their trademark inconsistency at the plate. Does the lack of a true leadoff hitter throw everything off to that degree? In two offseasons now, the Cubs haven't replaced Dexter Fowler offensively. When they changed hitting coaches from John Mallee to Chili Davis, they promised a shift in philosophy and approach would trigger something up and down the lineup. So far, the same lineup has encountered similar results under Davis, a discouraging trend.
6. Be willing to bench right fielder Jason Heyward. After last season, President Theo Epstein insisted Heyward would play regularly only if he earned the right in what Epstein called a "meritocracy." Offensively, his merits again are lacking. People looking for subtle signs of progress in Heyward's swing can find it, but his slash line of .204/.298/.286 suggests more scuffling ahead. Ben Zobrist, on the other hand, possesses a livelier bat the Cubs also could use at the top of their unconventional batting order. Happ could play there if Almora seizes an opportunity in center. Defensively, Heyward remains elite, but is that a luxury the Cubs can afford if manufacturing runs persists as a problem?
7. Ride the relief pitchers. The best early sign for the Cubs has come out of the bullpen with its added depth. Relievers have had reason to dance besides the occasional home run. Eddie Butler, the 25th guy to make the roster, has emerged as a godsend. Closer Brandon Morrow, used scarcely, looks solid. Steve Cishek seems like a smart addition. Justin Wilson, still shaky at times, appears salvageable. Holdovers Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr. and Mike Montgomery have experience Maddon trusts. By the All-Star break, you wonder if it will become obvious that Epstein turned a 2017 weakness into a strength every World Series contender needs.
And, yes, the Cubs still can consider themselves World Series contenders, 15 blah games notwithstanding.
