Yet another stunning upset this fall by Iowa State may go over big in Ames, Iowa, but not so much in Irving, Texas, where the Big 12 lives and the College Football Playoff committee meets.
And if you don't believe me, which wouldn't be the first time, check out the first CFP rankings when they come out on Halloween.
Above all else, the Cyclones' 14-7 win over fourth-ranked TCU reinforces an old truism:
Whatever can go wrong with the Big 12, will go wrong.
The Horned Frogs aren't necessarily eliminated from CFP contention, but you can bet it'll be a long climb back for what had been the Big 12's best hope after such a dismal performance in Ames. Frankly, I'm having a hard time erasing that image myself.
Besides another tough game coming up in Norman, Okla., in a couple of weeks, the Frogs have a lot going against them.
Alabama and Georgia will surely sit atop the CFP's initial rankings, probably in that order. They're the sort of big-school brand names the committee likes, and they get no argument here. Even so, chances are pretty good they'll meet in the SEC title game, and it would put a lot of pressure on the committee to leave out a team that lost so late in the season.
Considering that scenario, an undefeated TCU would have made the playoffs, without question. The committee needs the kind of certainty a stainless season provides.
Now, though, the Frogs are awash in all the other one-loss teams, some with better credentials by committee standards.
Think: Ohio State and Penn State, to name a couple. The Nittany Lions' one-point loss on the road to the Buckeyes isn't going to hurt their chances much. You can probably count on a team from the SEC and another from the Big Ten. Maybe even two from one or the other. And if it ends up that way come December, after all the wailing, we might just get the six- or eight-team playoff everyone's always wanted.
All the Frogs had to do to clear up some of the confusion was to remain undefeated, and they couldn't do that even in a game where Cinderella seemed determined to refuse the glass slipper.
Penalties that negated big plays, questionable intentions on offense and the inability of Hill to generate any kind of momentum made the loss appear self-inflicted.
And not that it matters, because it was way premature, but that Hill-for-Heisman campaign? Over and out.
But as long as we're talking national awards, let's not overlook the job Matt Campbell has done at Iowa State this season. No coach has brought a team further, especially if you consider the historical baggage that comes with the Cyclones.
Campbell's players are true believers, anyway. Maybe Jason Garrett, too, if he heard that post-game speech.
"If you fall in love with the process," Campbell told his guys, "then eventually the process will love you back."
If that means a win over Oklahoma State on Nov. 11 in Ames, then it's good for the Cyclones' Big 12 title chances. But it probably won't mean much more than that.
The next two weeks will wreak even further havoc on the Big 12's chances with Bedlam next week and TCU at Norman on Nov. 11.
Exactly what's best for the league going forward is difficult to handicap. The mitigating factor in TCU's ugly loss Saturday was that at least it was on the road. The Sooners couldn't beat the Cyclones at home, and Oklahoma State has already lost to TCU in Stillwater.
And for the record, Iowa State has that loss at home to Texas.
Just the same, it's sure looking like the Cyclones are the best the Big 12 has to offer, and if you think that'll impress the committee, you haven't been paying attention the last few years.
As for any good news, well, Kliff Kingsbury can now make a case that Texas Tech's 31-13 loss at home to Iowa State last week wasn't all that bad. He might even get a few boosters to buy it.
And Tom Herman can always say Cinderella had nothing on his Longhorns in the fall of 2017, which isn't shaping up as the Big 12's favorite fairy tale.
About the Author
