The Atlanta Braves invested nearly $300 million this winter to ensure success for the long haul. The flimsiness inherent in pitching arms has made it so that the Braves actually appear better off in the short term.
They’ve managed to flesh out their diminished rotation by hiring Ervin Santana for one season at $14.1 million, but at age 31 — and especially at $14.1 million — he probably isn’t an answer for 2016 or 2018. But Kris Medlen is bound for a second round of Tommy John surgery Tuesday and Brandon Beachy soon could be, which might mean their careers as starting pitchers have been compromised beyond repair.
Guys return from a first TJ throwing as well as ever and in some cases even better. Not so from Take 2. That’s why Medlen, who’s nothing if not a positive thinker, was so obviously distressed by this latest development. Having a first TJ is almost a rite of passage for a young pitcher — in sum, no big deal. The trick is avoiding it thereafter.
Medlen is 28, Beachy 27. They projected as rotational fixtures not just for this season but the next several. Now, pending a third opinion regarding Beachy from a Los Angeles doctor, they might be fixtures of nothing. Given that Beachy was leading the National League in ERA when he underwent TJ in June 2012 and given that Medlen has been the Braves’ best starting pitcher since he returned full-bore from TJ in July 2012, these would be massive losses. These could be franchise-changing losses.
Of the five young players signed to contract extensions in February, two are pitchers. One of those is Craig Kimbrel, who closes. Julio Teheran, who’s 23, stands alone as the starting pitcher under club control beyond his arbitration years. It’s possible that Mike Minor could see his contract likewise extended, and that would make two — but two men comprise only 40 percent of a rotation.
Back in 2011, the Braves believed they had four young arms of rare promise – Teheran, Minor, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino. The latter hurt his arm, underwent TJ and was subsequently traded to the Cubs for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. (Groomed by the Braves as a starter, Vizcaino hasn’t pitched the past two seasons and is now viewed as a reliever.) Delgado was traded to Arizona last January in the Justin Upton deal. For the Braves’ purposes, the fab four has been halved and the two who remain are in the majors.
What’s available in the farm system? Lucas Sims, the No. 1 pick in 2012 from Snellville, has risen to become the Braves’ top prospect. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus cites favorable comparisons to the Giants’ Matt Cain, which would have been high praise before last season. Sims could be in this rotation soon, perhaps even by next season. Behind him, alas, there’s not much.
J.R. Graham’s stock dipped after he suffered a shoulder injury last year. Sean Gilmartin, the Braves’ No. 1 draftee in 2011, was shipped to Minnesota for backup catcher Ryan Doumit. On Parks’ list of top 10 Braves prospects, only five are pitchers and the top three are Sims, Graham and Mauricio Cabrera, who has a big fastball but, as yet, not much else.
Even as we applaud the Braves for re-upping first baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Andrelton Simmons for the rest of the decade, we underscore the longstanding truth that no team can ever expect to win big with a substandard rotation. With Medlen and Beachy healthy, the Braves would have been equipped with the requisite complement of stellar starters. But everything changed in the span of 24 hours: First Medlen walked off the mound holding his forearm, and the next day Beachy left his start two innings sooner than was scheduled.
Signing Santana should enable the Braves to work enough good innings to put them in position to make the playoffs. But Santana and Gavin Floyd are signed only through 2014, which means next year could prove problematic, to say nothing of the years after.
If Alex Wood is as good as he looked last season and if Sims continues to progress, they could soon stand with Teheran and Minor in a newly formidable rotation. But not every big-name prospect pans out and we’ve just been reminded that not every prized arm will hold up. A month ago, even 10 days ago, we’d have sworn the Braves were as fortified for lasting success as an organization can be. Today they stand as yet another team singing that timeless tale of woe: In baseball, there’s never an inoculation against sore arms.
