The 2013 Braves overachieved. They won the National League East in a season where much went wrong. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said Wednesday that if he had known in the spring all that would befall his team, he would have guessed it might finish “10 games above .500,” meaning 86-76. His Braves went 96-66.
The 2013 Braves also underachieved. If you add the FanGraphs WAR (wins above replacement) ratings for the former All-Stars Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Brian McCann, you get 9.3 — or 1.1 fewer wins than the Angels’ Mike Trout was worth by himself. If you add the WAR numbers of Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton, you get minus-0.1, which is to say they contributed less than nothing.
Come the playoffs, the Braves essentially were without Uggla and the elder Upton. The former didn’t make the postseason roster; the latter made it only as the 25th man and struck out three times as a pinch-hitter. Their utter futility turned what was in February a great-looking roster into a cracked structure that needed painting over just to remain presentable.
Come the playoffs, the flaws were conspicuous. Because Uggla was a dud of historic proportions, the Braves had to use the Kansas City castoff Elliot Johnson at second base; he went 1-for-14 and was lucky to be charged with only one error. Because the Braves couldn’t trust B.J. Upton to do anything but strike out, their outfield consisted of three men playing out of position, as was made immediately evident in Game 1.
As we bid adieu to the 2013 Braves, we salute them for doing as well as they did. As we look toward 2014, we shouldn’t expect them to win so big again without significant upgrade. The pitching was very good and should be again. The hitting wasn’t anywhere near championship caliber. The Braves batted .249 as a team, ninth-best in the league, and we saw in the Division Series what happened if they couldn’t hit home runs. They managed four extra-base hits in four games, or two fewer than the Dodgers’ Hanley Ramirez.
The Braves had pitching and power (at least in the regular season) going for them. They also had the NL East. They were 47-29 against division opposition, 49-37 against everybody else. They were a good team, yes, but they probably weren’t 96-win good. In the NL Central, they would have done well to finish third.
For 2014, the Braves will probably have to find new players at two up-the-middle positions and possibly a third. Even if they have to pay Uggla the full $26 million to go away, he’ll be gone. (Asked Wednesday if Uggla would be a Brave in 2014, Gonzalez offered this non-endorsement: “I don’t know. Every year, we make a lot of tweaks.”)
McCann doesn’t figure to be back, either. Yes, he’s a great teammate and he once was a great player, but he hasn’t really been himself since he was injured in July 2011. He’ll turn 30 in February, and he stands to be offered more money by the Rangers or the Yankees or some other American League club. Besides, Evan Gattis needs a place to play.
Asked who’ll be the No. 1 center fielder headed into spring training, Gonzalez said: “It’d be B.J.” Later he offered a rave review of Heyward’s enforced stint in center field, so you might not want to do that depth chart in Magic Marker.
The rotation will change: Paul Maholm, a free agent, won’t be back, and Tim Hudson might not be. With Brandon Beachy presumably returning to health and Alex Wood primed to become a fully minted starter — and with David Hale available as insurance — is there a place for a 38-year-old coming off a broken ankle?
The season just completed was a confounding thing: The Braves got great value (96 wins) even as they were getting next to nothing from Uggla and B.J. Upton ($26.25 million between them, including bonuses). Assuming McCann and Hudson aren’t re-signed, that’s $21 million that could be used to shop even as Uggla is being bought out. But is having money to spend really a good thing? As we know, general manager Frank Wren is at his worst when he pays retail.
On paper, the Braves look pretty good for next season — maybe not 96-win good, but these 96 wins were something of a harmonic convergence. As Gonzalez said, “A lot of days we’d walk off the field and think, ‘How did we win this one?’”
Then the 92-win Dodgers appeared, and the 96-win Braves were made to look puny. They were outhit in the NLDS 46-28, out-homered 7-1 and outscored 26-14. The wonder wasn’t that they lost in four games. The wonder was that they hung around that long.
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