Pitchers and catchers report to Braves camp at Disney on Friday, and some among us consider that – as opposed to the swallows returning to Capistrano – the first true sign of spring. A time of renewal! A time where all things seem possible! A time when …
OK, enough of that garbage.
For these Braves, the sight of pitchers and catchers in the Florida sun is as good as it’s apt to get. This figures to be the worst Braves team in 25 years, the worst since the 1990 edition went 65-97 and finished 26 games behind Cincinnati in the National League West. (The Braves wouldn’t move to the East for three seasons more, which tells you how long ago it was.)
Even as the Braves’ new hierarchy seeks to paint a smiley face on an offseason of deconstruction, the best we can say is that this club might be a contender come 2017, which not so coincidentally is when it sets up shop by Cumberland Mall. The Braves have restocked a farm system that the terminated Frank Wren – who, according to his terminators, must have been the worst general manager ever to preside over five consecutive winning seasons – had rendered fallow.
Rebuilding from the ground up is not, we should emphasize, a terrible thing. The Braves had gotten thin at the higher minor-league levels, and once you dip into the lower minors you’re mostly guessing. Owing to one dizzying trade after another and the banishment of nearly every player who ever shook Wren’s hand – the Braves even fired his brother the scout and traded his son the outfielder – the farmhands do appear more robust.
Keith Law of ESPN rates the Braves the sixth-best organization among 30 MLB teams, allowing that: “They were a bottom-5 system when the offseason started.” Six Braves rank among Law’s 100 best prospects – although only Jose Peraza, a Wren acquisition, rates above 46th – and of Law’s top 10 Braves minor-leaguers, six were acquired post-Wren.
Now for grimmer tidings. Sam Miller, the erudite editor of Baseball Prospectus, assessed farm systems rated the best in 2004 (Brewers), 2005 (Cubs) and 2006 (Diamondbacks). He writes that the club with the No. 1 chain can expect “around 100 wins above replacement, most of it at sub-market prices, peaking three to seven years after the rankings come out.” Then this: “We also have a surer sense of what the clubs can’t expect: A dynasty, a run of dominance, or even a single World Series appearance.”
A peak three years hence would mean the Braves would be really good in Cobb Year 2. That’s a darn sight better than stinking until the 22nd Century. Still, it will be cold comfort these next few summers.
Baseball Prospectus projects the 2015 Braves to go 75-87. FanGraphs tabs them at 71-91, which would make them MLB’s second-worst team. (Thank heaven for Philadelphia.) David Schoenfield of ESPN’s SweetSpot rates the Braves 28th in the majors and figures they’ll go 68-96. Buster Olney of ESPN notes that the Atlantis sports book sets the Braves’ over/under win total at 73.5 and assumes, because they’ll surely be dumping players at the trade deadline, they won’t make that.
And you know it’s bad when the Braves themselves tweet a photo of the grass and dirt at Turner Field with the caption: “Get ready to see lots of this on the uniform of Jonny Gomes.” Gomes is a newly acquired journeyman who has the reputation of playing hard if not well. The grass/dirt image inspired HardballTalk’s Craig Calcaterra, who identifies himself as a Braves fan, to author a post bearing the headline “Just Kill Me Now.”
In my debating days, we had a saying: If you have evidence, pound the evidence; if you have logic, pound the logic; if you have neither, pound the table. Trumpeting grass stains is the baseball equivalent of pounding the table.
Say the 2015 Braves indeed lead the majors in dirty uniforms. Will that be enough to lift them to .500? With an outfield of castoffs, plus Nick Markakis (whom Dave Cameron of FanGraphs rates the second-worst acquisition of the baseball offseason) and — oh, yeah; him again — B.J. Upton?
In a word: Nah.
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