One year ago at this time, the Washington Nationals had the best record in the major leagues (73-49), led the Braves by 4 1/2 games in the National League East and exuded a youthful arrogance that suggested they thought they were on the way to conquering not only baseball but all sports globally, small nations and neighboring galactic empires.
Oops.
Today, the Nationals are 59-60. They haven’t been on the plus side of .500 in a month. Before Thursday’s games, they sat closer to the last-place Miami Marlins (13 games) than the first-place Braves (14). They seemed to mutate into reality television the other night when Jayson Werth and Gio Gonzalez got into a shouting match in the dugout after the first inning.
Neighboring galactic empires can rest comfortably.
The Braves and Nationals open a weekend series at Turner Field on Friday night. The backdrop isn’t what anybody expected. The Braves are in magic-number countdown mode. The Nationals are wondering what happened to a team they believed was so obviously set up for more championship runs that management made the dubious decision last year to put pitcher Stephen Strasburg in bubble wrap for the playoffs.
I would imagine the dinosaurs also got pretty cocky before they started wandering into the tar pits. None of them saw that one coming.
In spring training, Braves general manager Frank Wren looked at his team, looked at Washington and reached the logical conclusion. “I would’ve thought we would be battling with them, neck and neck,” he said. “I felt we were well-matched. I certainly had no expectations of a double-digit lead. I just didn’t see that as being plausible.”
Which leads to the question: What is reality for the future of the National League East? Is this year an aberration, or was last season the aberration.
I hoped to get some feedback from Washington general manager Mike Rizzo on this subject, but he declined comment through a spokesman. Or, possibly his phone fell into a tar pit.
The Braves owned their division (West, then East) for 14 consecutive seasons, ensuing October fizzles notwithstanding. The Mets won the East in 2006. Then Philadelphia won five consecutive, but the roster grew old. The Nationals, with youth and strong starting pitching, won the division, spending 180 of 190 days in first place.
But this season should change projections. Nobody is suggesting the Braves are going to reel off a string of division titles like they did in the 1990s — “I don’t think that’s ever going to happen again,” catcher Brian McCann said — but they seemingly were undervalued in this debate.
Consider some of the metrics. The Braves have the second-youngest roster in the majors with an average age of 26.6 years, six spots ahead of the Nationals at 27.9. (Contrast: The Yankees are the oldest at 31.3; the Phillies are oldest in the National League at 29.9) Washington also has a higher payroll at $118,289,679 and 11th overall, compared with the Braves at $90,039,583 and 17th. (The Yankees have the most bloated payroll at $228,106,125 million. Cue Dean Wormer: "Old, overpaid and stupid is no way to go through a season.")
The Nationals’ starting rotation, led by Strasburg, Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann, generally is touted as one of the majors’ best. But the Braves’ staff has been completely rebuilt. The rotation — minus the injured Tim Hudson — is young, with Brandon Beachy (26), Mike Minor (25) Julio Teheran (22), Kris Medlen (27) and Paul Maholm (31) or Alex Wood (22) and is part of a staff that ranks second in the majors with a 3.20 ERA. (Washington: 3.69.)
For whatever ills the Braves’ have had on offense at times this season, the problems pale in comparison with the Nationals’. You will find them near the bottom in batting average (.244), on-base percentage (.304) and scoring (3.79 runs).
The Braves aren’t without problems. One is named Dan Uggla. Another is named B.J. Upton. But would anybody take the Nationals’ lineup over the Braves’?
Wren isn’t an expert at foretelling the future. If he were, he probably wouldn’t have slid dizzying contracts across the table to Uggla, Upton and a few others. But he likes how his team is positioned.
“I just think every season has its own characteristics,” he said. “You can’t assume health, and you can’t assume performance. You do your best to put together ingredients that you think will help you win. But you just can’t assume everything. We’ve certainly had situations where some players didn’t meet expectations, just as we’ve had players that exceeded expectations.”
Wren said his view of the Nationals hasn’t changed.
“Sometimes you’re just going to have a year where it doesn’t work,” he said. “They’re going to be an elite team for a while.”
He went on to say positive things about the Phillies, and the Mets, and the Marlins. This isn’t the time to exude superiority. The Braves haven’t won anything, yet. They’ve fallen through their share of trapdoors. But at the very least, we know the Nationals’ reign was short-lived.
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