Memorial Day weekend in Atlanta means three things: Swimming pools are open, schools are out for the summer and I’m about to make everybody mad. It’s time again for our annual long-range college football predictions, guaranteed to delight no one. If I pick your team lower than you think your team should be picked, you’re miffed. If I pick your team to do well, you’re worried because you believe – with some justification, I concede – I’m never right.
So why keep doing these? Because it’s a tradition! And tradition must be upheld, lest mere anarchy be loosed.
Florida State won't go undefeated. The Seminoles' schedule is slightly tougher – they'll face Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Louisville – and they'll be bored enough by all this winning that they'll slip up somewhere. But going undefeated, at least for a team of FSU's profile, will be less important than in the past. The College Football Playoff is at hand.
No SEC team will finish the regular season unbeaten. Here's the sort of thing you probably won't hear on the ballyhooed SEC Network, but the Only League That Matters looks a bit diminished. Of its seven best teams from last season, six – Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Missouri, South Carolina and Texas A&M – must replace quarterbacks of long standing, and the exception (Auburn) won so many close games that it's impossible to believe such luck will hold. I know a lot of folks have already penciled two SEC reps into the four-team playoff, but some pretty good two-loss SEC teams could be omitted.
Auburn will lose three games. True believers will note that Gus Malzahn's offenses get even better in Year 2, but SEC defenses catch on pretty fast. I'm not saying the Nick Marshall-powered spread will stop working; I'm just saying it won't work quite as well as it did with Tre Mason taking the handoffs Marshall didn't fake.
Alabama will lose a game – probably at LSU on Nov. 8 – but win the SEC West. The bulk of the Tide schedule is, as ever, nothing special. But the move from AJ McCarron to his replacement, whoever that is, won't be as seamless as the switch from Greg McElroy to McCarron was. McCarron was more than just a game manager; he was a darn good college quarterback.
The playoff foursome will be Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Oregon. Not coincidentally, those were my top four teams in mid-January. I'm not above changing horses in midstream, but we're not within sight of water. And for all of you scoffing at the inclusion of Ohio State because the Buckeyes spit the bit (another horse analogy!) against Michigan State: We bet against Urban Meyer at our peril. Even at his worst, he's the nation's second-best coach.
Florida State will beat Alabama for the national championship. Because the Seminoles won't be bored come January.
Georgia Tech will go 7-5. This is lower than I usually pick Tech, but it has been so long since the Jackets beat anybody any good that I've stopped believing they can. The Jackets have lost their most talented offensive and defensive players – Vad Lee and Jeremiah Attaochu – from last season, and they've also lost the two – freshman B-back Travis Custis and defender Jabari Hunt-Days – who might have been their most talented players this season. Seven wins has become the new Tech baseline. I don't see that changing.
Should Tech fool me and go 8-4, it might be enough to win the ACC Coastal. Miami missed its breakthrough chance last season. Virginia Tech hasn't been itself for a while now and mightn't be again under Frank Beamer. North Carolina is annually overblown. Duke wound up winning the Coastal last season, and while the Devils are coached as well as any team in the land, they're not very talented. It would be a surprise if any Coastal team is ranked among the Associated Press preseason Top 25. It would be a shock if any Coastal team wins more than eight games.
South Carolina has the schedule to win the East but not quite the team. The Gamecocks will play host to Georgia and Missouri, claimers of the three most recent division titles. But South Carolina has won 11 games each of the past three seasons — beating the eventual East winner every time — without reaching the SEC title game. And that was with the inspirational Connor Shaw and the famous Jadeveon Clowney, both of whom are gone.
Georgia will go 10-2 and win the SEC East. Hutson Mason won't be as polished as Aaron Murray, and the defense under Jeremy Pruitt won't be as stout as the defense under Todd Grantham in 2011. But it will be better than Grantham's defense of 2013, and that, plus Todd Gurley, will be enough to reclaim the division. The Bulldogs could well lose at South Carolina on Sept. 13, but that game has ceased to be a determinant. (The winner hasn't taken the East since 2010.) Even with all last season's injuries, a bit more defense would have left Georgia 10-3 or 11-2, as opposed to 8-5. These Bulldogs aren't as gifted as the 2013 team would have been at full strength, but they're still the East's most talented crew.
About the Author
