The easy way would have been to say, "We were 10 yards short of the Super Bowl – we don't need to do anything big." But to take the path of least resistance wouldn't have led the Atlanta Falcons any closer to their desired destination. They were getting old, and their defense still wasn't good enough. They've given themselves a chance to get younger and better.
The Falcons cut three big names Friday. Even if these weren't so much personnel decisions as cap casualties, teams tend to keep what they value most. The Falcons just told us that, for all the good work done by Michael Turner, John Abraham and Dunta Robinson, none of the above was indispensable.
Turner was the least surprising. This time a year ago, the in-house belief was that he had one decent season left in him. Sure enough, he rushed for 800 yards in a redesigned offense that didn't need him to do very much. Abraham and Robinson were more problematic: They were key figures – pass rusher and starting cornerback – off a defense that ranked 24th among the 32 NFL teams. Not incidentally, all three cuts were on the high side of 30. Again we cite Danny Tuccitto of Football Outsiders, who noted for ESPN Insider that the 2012 Falcons had, by per-snap count, the NFL's oldest offense and defense.
By lopping Abraham, the Falcons saved themselves from sinking more money into a defensive end who’ll turn 35 in May. Dwight Freeney, formerly of Indianapolis, is nearly two years younger and is available, but aging pass rushers can be tricky buys. Even if the Falcons aren't ready to switch to a 3-4 set as their defensive base, one way to work around Abraham's absence might be to rely less on the 4-3, in which ends are expecting to do the sacking. (But that would put the onus on the linebackers, and the Falcons aren't brimming with talent there.)
In 2010, Robinson signed with the Falcons for $57 million over six seasons. He leaves after three seasons. (Good thing football contracts aren’t guaranteed, huh?) This tells us that Thomas Dimitroff isn’t afraid to yield to reality. Counting Ray Edwards, this makes two big-ticket free agents who haven’t panned out, but the unyielding NFL cap makes stubbornness a luxury no general manager can afford.
If anything, coming within 10 yards of the Super Bowl has only made the Falcons that much more restless. Under Dimitroff and Mike Smith, this team has gone 11-5, 9-7, 13-3, 10-6 and 13-3. It has proved it can win big in the regular season, and it proved in January that it could win an actual playoff game. There’s only one place left to go, but they'll never get there by staying the same.
Say this for Dimitroff and Smith: They haven’t been afraid to change. They did, let's recall, dump half an inherited defense after one season. In four years of trying, they still haven’t built one of championship stripe, but they’ve cleared nearly $16 million in cap space, which means they get to try again. (The guess here is that retaining cornerback Brent Grimes just became a bigger priority.)
After the Falcons went 4-12 in the lost season of 2007, four men arrived and were largely responsible for lifting this franchise to an ongoing excellence it had never known – Dimitroff, Smith, Turner and Matt Ryan. Turner was just jettisoned, but over five seasons he stamped himself as the best free-agent buy in Falcons annals. To suggest that he failed in any way is to have no sense of history.
Change is the way of all sports, and it’s especially the way of the hard-capped NFL. Turner was really good, and then he was less good, and now he leaves so the Falcons can find someone better. Steven Jackson, lately of the Rams, seems an obvious fit, but last season the Falcons began to wean themselves of the necessity of having a feature back. Moving further toward a Saints-like running-game-by-committee would likely be a cheaper way to go.
The Falcons keep evolving. We saw it last season, when new offensive and defensive coordinators put a spring in everyone’s step and brought more contemporary tactics to bear. We’ve seen Ryan go from being a rookie starter who needed a powerful running back as a counterweight to being a poised Pro Bowler who can win games by himself. We’ve seen Sean Weatherspoon go from Round 1 draftee to defensive leader.
We’re about to see more change. There’s a chance it might not be for the better, but not to change would have been the quickest way for a team that was 10 yards short to fall 30 yards short next time. For all their winning, the Falcons just told us that they know there’s work to do. Kudos to them for getting on with it.
About Mark Bradley
Has worked for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution for more than 25 years. Has won some awards but lost many more.
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