This is how it starts. Baseball’s best player comes to bat. There’s a 50 percent chance he won’t make an out. That’s not an exaggeration. Ronald Acuna’s on-base percentage when leading off the game is .508.
If you’re the pitcher, you ask yourself, “Am I better off if he hits a home run?” Acuna has done that 28 times in his career, though only twice this season. If he hits a homer, the Braves have one run. If he leads off with a single or a walk, the pressure heightens.
He has reached base in the first inning 33 times in 65 games – 28 hits, four walks, one HBP. He has scored 20 first-inning runs. The Braves have scored in the first 28 times. That’s the most of any MLB club. They’re tops in first-inning runs (59) and first-inning homers (19). It starts with Acuna, but it doesn’t end there.
Matt Olson is hitting .228 on the season. His first-inning batting average is .303. There’s a chance he’ll strike out – he leads the majors with 82 whiffs – but also a chance he’ll hit the ball over the fence. He’s tied for fourth in homers with 18.
Eight of those homers have come in the first inning. One came Sunday. As ever, Acuna was aboard. Sixteen of Olson’s 45 RBIs have come in the first. His first-inning OPS is 1.053. Hitting behind Acuna means Olson is apt to see a good pitch. It also means will be distracted.
Acuna leads the National League in stolen bases. Of his 28, seven came in the first inning. Acuna on the bases is a bigger deal in 2023 than in 2022. Owing to rule-tweaking, a pitcher can throw over or step off the rubber only twice. Bases are larger by three square inches, making them more inviting. Acuna is on pace to steal 70 bases. The club record is 72 by Otis Nixon in 1991.
The Braves are 20-8 when they score in the first inning. They’re 20-17 when they don’t.
It doesn’t end with Olson. More than half of Austin Riley’s RBIs (17 of 33) and more than two-thirds of his homers (seven of 11) have come in the first inning. His first-inning OPS is 1.116. He has scored 12 first-inning runs, meaning someone hitting behind him has driven him home.
Sean Murphy, usually the clean-up hitter, has eight first-inning RBIs. The Braves’ front four has wrought havoc all season. What’s different is that no longer looks top-heavy.
Through May 25, Eddie Rosario’s OPS was .665. It’s .726 today. He had five homers in April and May. He has three in June.
Ozzie Albies’ June OPS is .885. He usually hits sixth in the order. He’s tied for second among Braves with 42 RBIs. Esteemed former colleague Gerry Fraley believed a leading indicator of a lineup’s worth was its No. 6 hitter. If he’s good, it’s good. Albies is All-Star good.
On May 1, Marcell Ozuna was hitting .085. His OPS was .397. He’s hitting .242 with an OPS of .813 today. He’s no longer the worst hitter in baseball. The Braves stuck with him – I wouldn’t have – and, not for the first time, have reaped the benefit of patience.
Among shortstops with 150 plate appearances, Orlando Arcia is first in batting average, second in on-base percentage and fifth in slugging. (He tops Dansby Swanson in all three categories, FYI.) Among position players, Arcia is third – behind Acuna and Murphy, ahead of Albies and Olson – in WAR, and that’s with missing 21 games.
Owing to injury, Michael Harris started slowly and poorly. He went 14-for-84 with 24 strikeouts in May. He’s 8-for-33 with nine strikeouts in June. If he gets going, this lineup will be what the Braves envisioned – deep and dangerous, essentially without a hole.
And here we note: This team is second in the majors in OPS as is. Imagine if the pressure that begins with the game’s first at-bat grows to include nine lineup spots though nine innings. Imagine that.
The above is part of a regular exercise available to all who register on AJC.com for our free Sports Daily newsletter. The full Buzz, which includes extras like a weekly poll and pithy quotes, arrives via email around 1:30 p.m. on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
How do you sign up? Go to the AJC.com home page. Click on “newsletters” at the top right. Click on “Sports Daily.” You’ll need to enter your email address. Thanks, folks.
About the Author
