This could be a slow NBA offseason – except that NBA offseasons never are. From “The Decision” to the core of the 73-win Warriors descendng on the Hamptons to woo Kevin Durant to Kawhi Leonard, king of load management, coming off a championship in Canada to cluster with Paul George as a Clipper, this sport gets more intriguing after it stops playing. Your 2023 talking points:
· Some famous possible free agents face opt-outs, which means James Harden, Khris Middleton and Draymond Green might or might not become free agents. All are on the high side of 30. The top unrestricted free agent is Kyrie Irving, who since hitting the biggest shot in NBA finals history has gone from Cleveland to Boston to Brooklyn to Dallas.
· In pro sports, teams seek to mimic the new champ. There’s no way that happens here, there being no way anyone else could find another Nikola Jokic. There has never been and will never be another Nikola Jokic.
· Local angle: The Hawks have a new coach (Quin Snyder) and, for the third consecutive season, will pick outside the lottery. The guess is that they’ll look much different come October, but we’re not sure how different. Will John Collins get traded? Or will he, a decade from now, retire after 16 seasons of never-quite-getting-traded?
· The past two months have seen Doc Rivers, Mike Budenholzer, Nick Nurse and Monty Williams fired. All had won a title or been named coach of the year; three managed both. Williams was hired by Detroit, which has had one winning season since 2008. Nurse bounced from Toronto to Philadelphia, where he inherits MVP Joel Embiid and a team that has lost three Game 7s over five years.
· The Biggest Prospect Since LeBron will alight in San Antonio. Victor Wembanyama will play for Gregg Popovich, who won five titles with David Robinson and/or Tim Duncan, the most recent in 2014. Popovich is 74, the oldest coach in NBA annals. He has presided over four consecutive losing seasons.
· Google “how tall is Wembanyama.” Answers range from 7-foot-2 to, er, 7-9. The tallest players in NBA annals were Manute Bol and Gheorghe Muresan, each listed as 7-7. Player heights, however, have always been fluid. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was listed as 7-2, though opponents insisted he was 7-4.
· Next season’s NBA will feature another towering rookie – Chet Holmgren, picked No. 2 behind Paolo Banchero last June. He missed the season with a Lisfranc fracture. He’ll join an Oklahoma City team that includes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the league’s next great player. OKC could be the NBA’s next great team. Through sagacious tanking/trading, it holds 15 first-round picks through 2029.
· The NBA’s last great team – Golden State – is without its architect, GM Bob Myers having stepped aside. There’s thought Green could be allowed to leave. There’s thought Klay Thompson could be traded. That would leave Stephen Curry as the last Warrior standing, unless you count Steve Kerr, who doesn’t actually play.
· The Lakers have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but they haven’t been much of a team since winning the 2020 bubble title. James will be 39 in December and has hinted at retirement. Son Bronny just signed with USC and could be an NBA player in 2024. Watch this space.
· The Celtics are past due to win another champonship, but for all their gifts – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon– they remain on hold. Al Horford averaged 6.7 points and made 38.4% of his shots in postseason. He’s 37. It happens.
· The 44-win Heat caught lightning in a bottle. Having lost Game 1 of the play-in tournament to the Hawks, Miami trailed Chicago with 2-1/2 minutes remaining in play-in Game 2. After taking a 3-0 lead on Boston in the Eastern finals, the Heat went 2-7. Miami is a fine organization, but this wasn’t among its best teams.
· The Suns’ newly assembled Core Four could be down to two. Chris Paul is 38. Deandre Ayton missed the decisive Game 6 against Denver due to a rib contusion. Both could be traded. That would leave Durant and Devin Booker, which isn’t nothing, though the former has worked 137 regular-season games since 2019.
· Pay attention to Portland. It holds the draft’s third pick. It could trade Damian Lillard, though not for Trae Young.
· SportsBetting lists the Hawks’ odds of winning the 2024 NBA title at 55-1. Sixteen teams have shorter odds. The same site lists the Hawks’ chances of signing D’Angelo Russell at 5-1. Because a team with Young and Dejounte Murray really needs another scoring guard, I guess.
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