The All-Star break found the Atlanta Hawks at low tide — losers of five in a row, below .500 for the first time since Dec. 3, holding fifth place in the wretched NBA East after two months of being No. 3. Anyone paying attention had to figure this was coming, but the Hawks’ past two losses, coming as they did at Chicago and Toronto by an aggregate 36 points, left the impression of a depleted roster wearing down.
Granted, they’ve been hurt. Center Pero Antic hasn’t played since Jan. 22. Wing DeMarre Carroll has missed five games since Christmas with various ailments. John Jenkins, the Hawks’ Round 1 pick of 2012, has been lost to back surgery, and Al Horford, the team’s MVP, is out for the duration with another torn pectoral. That’s a lot of shelved manpower for a team that wasn’t being mistaken for the Showtime Lakers in the first place.
The Hawks have a 3 1/2-game hold on the East’s final playoff spot, which could be subject to change. Washington, which is No. 6 in the East, started the season 2-7 but has righted itself. Brooklyn, which is No. 7, has won 14 of 20 since being 10-21 on New Year’s Day. Charlotte is a weak No. 8, but No. 9 Detroit should get a bounce from firing coach Maurice Cheeks, who couldn’t get along — stop me if you’ve heard this one before — with Josh Smith, and the No. 10 Knicks could dump Mike Woodson, of whom you’ve also heard, and begin to play closer to their gifts.
In sum, if the Hawks were to think about tanking their way into the draft lottery — and clearly they didn’t over the summer, or why sign Paul Millsap and Carroll and re-up Kyle Korver and match Milwaukee’s offer to Jeff Teague? — now’s their last chance. The trading deadline is Thursday.
They could move Teague, provided he’d agree to the trade. He’s good but not great, and his matched four-year deal might be a bit longer than the Hawks liked. They’d get a slew of offers for the excellent Millsap, but they’d surely keep him because he’s cheap ($9.5 million per season) and under contract only through 2015, and he has become the embodiment of what general manager Danny Ferry and coach Mike Budenholzer are seeking in a player.
The guess here — just a guess — is that Ferry will do much talking before Thursday but will, for the second year running, opt to do nothing, or nothing much. Without Horford, the Hawks aren’t in position to be a buyer: The best they can hope is to win one playoff round, and that’s not worth assuming any oppressive contracts. Besides Ferry and Budenholzer, cap space remains the best thing this franchise has working for it.
The guess is also that Ferry mightn’t see the hyped-to-the-heavens lottery class of 2014 as quite so bountiful. Andrew Wiggins of Kansas is a major talent, but he’s not LeBron James. Indeed, Wiggins isn’t a lock to be the first Jayhawk drafted. Teammate Joel Embiid could go No. 1 overall, and he’s not Anthony Davis. Jabari Parker of Duke is a skilled scorer but not Kevin Durant, and Julius Randle of Kentucky is a power player who won’t overpower as many guys in the NBA.
Besides, there would be no percentage in tanking now. Even if the Hawks dumped Teague, they wouldn’t fall so far as to render the lottery math truly inviting. (Though it does take only one serendipitous sequence of Ping Pong balls to flout probability.) Owing to the Joe Johnson selloff, the Hawks have the right to trade Round 1 picks with the Nets, but it’s unlikely Brooklyn will backslide into the lottery. And for all the ballyhoo over this draft class, it’s not clear a player the caliber of Horford — forget LeBron and Davis and Durant — will be available.
Having gone this far with the intention of winning as many games as possible, the Hawks would be better served keeping on keeping on. The habits instilled in Year 1 under Budenholzer could resonate come Year 3 or 4. As Ferry said last week: “Even without Al, when we have our full complement — DeMarre and Pero — we’re competitive. We know how we want to play.”
That’s no small thing. Lots of teams never get that far. The question regarding the Hawks remains the same — when will they land the superstar that their San Antonio model found when it drafted Tim Duncan No. 1 overall in 1997? — but the groundwork they’re doing shouldn’t be discounted. If the Hawks never land a Duncan, they’ll soon be smart enough and tough enough to be a consistent 50-game winner. If they ever get lucky, they’ll be positioned to play for championships.
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