The field at Nationals Park was nearly empty Monday afternoon when Jordan Zimmermann walked from left field to a small group of players near the batting cage. He greeted some former teammates and Washington Nationals staff, and then clasped hands with the man who essentially replaced him, Max Scherzer, in what amounted to a $320-million embrace.
Standing to the side: Justin Verlander, who is in the midst of a seven-year, $180-million deal that kept him with the Detroit Tigers, Zimmermann's new team. Not pictured: Stephen Strasburg, who was about to pitch that evening -- and sign a seven-year, $175-million contract extension to remain with the Nationals.
So then, when the Tigers and the Nationals took the field for the second game of their series Tuesday night, four pitchers will sit on two benches, worth a total of $675 million.
Pick up your jaw, and move on. It is, by now, the cost of doing business. But that doesn't mean it's an easy, sure-bet business. Strasburg's is the 21st nine-figure deal for a pitcher in major-league history. If you're a Nats fan, and you want to remain elated, don't go hunting for that list just yet.
Over the offseason, David Price signed the most lucrative deal ever granted a pitcher: seven years and $217 million from the Boston Red Sox. Seven starts in, his 6.75 ERA is the worst in the American League. Over the same offseason, Zack Greinke set a new mark for average annual value for any player: more than $34.4 million each year for six years. Seven starts in, his 5.15 ERA is more than double his mark in the three years he played for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the years that essentially earned him his new deal.
And in that embrace between Zimmermann, the new Tiger, and Scherzer, the former Tiger, was all of the hope and angst these contracts can bring. Zimmermann, whose six-year, $110-million with Detroit took him away from the team that drafted and developed him, leads every starter in baseball with a 1.10 ERA.
"He's kinda exactly what we thought he was," Tigers Manager Brad Ausmus said Monday. "Bulldog. No frills. Dry sense of humor. Low-maintenance. Very good pitcher."
So for Detroit, currently mired in a seven-game losing streak and staring at an expensive, aging roster, Zimmermann represents a good buy - for now. The perception of these deals, though, can turn in a month's time, and there's reason to be worried about Zimmermann's peripheral stats. His average fastball velocity is down to 91.7 mph from 93 last year and 93.9 in 2013, according to Pitchf/x data, a drop that can't be considered insignificant. That has to play a part in his swing-and-miss rate of 7 percent, down from 8.6 percent last year and 10.3 percent a year before, according to FanGraphs. That's the fourth-worst swing-and-miss rate in the American League, and Zimmermann's strikeouts-per-nine-innings mark is down to a career-low 5.5, and those all could indicate that a more difficult summer awaits.
Zimmermann, though, could continue to perform in his first year with the Tigers. But facing him Wednesday night is Scherzer, a walking, talking cautionary tale. His first 15 starts after leaving Detroit for Washington were best-in-baseball brilliant: a 1.79 ERA, a .180 average against, 130 strikeouts and 14 walks in 110-1/3 innings pitched. But in the last calendar year, no pitcher in baseball has allowed more home runs than Scherzer, who has coughed up 34. His career ERA entering this season: 3.46. His ERA after seven starts in 2016: 4.60.
Scherzer may well fix himself. Zimmermann could continue to dominate. But with these deals, there always seems a reason to fret. Verlander is another example, right in front of us: His ERA since 2014 is 4.23 -- and at least three years at $28 million per remain after this season.
Unlike the deals for Scherzer and Zimmermann, Strasburg's new contract includes a pair of opt-out clauses - one after 2019, the other after 2020 - and significant deferred money, $70 million to be paid out after the contract expires in 2023. Such opt-out clauses are a relatively new, and increasingly popular, means of making deals more attractive for a player.
The common thought: Opt-outs completely favor the player, because if he is performing well, he likely will be worth more in the future given how much revenue continues to pour into the game. If he's performing poorly, then he stays with his current club - which suddenly is burdened with him for the remainder of the contract.
But it's possible that, with pitchers, teams could embrace the idea of letting their expensive pitchers walk with an opt-out. It could seem painful at the time. It might be wise in the long-term.
Strasburg, just 27 now, is young to have signed such an extension, and he'll be just 30 when his first option to become a free agent arrives. That would put him in line, age-wise, with Scherzer and Zimmermann when they signed their deals.
The problem with these nine-figure pitching deals, though, typically isn't in the first few years, when a player might be 30-to-32. Rather, it's later. Cliff Lee made $25 million from the Phillies in 2015 - and didn't pitch. He was 36. Barry Zito had a 5.74 ERA and allowed 1.703 walks and hits per inning pitched in 2013 - when the San Francisco Giants paid him $20 million. He was 35. The examples are both numerous and gruesome.
But the opt-out gives one more cautionary tale that might be a good guide for the Nationals. Namely, if Strasburg pitches well enough to opt out in three or four years, you might want to let him walk. In 2011, CC Sabathia threw 237 1/3 innings with a 3.00 ERA for the Yankees, whom he had led to a World Series just two seasons prior. He had the right to leave mid-deal. But instead, New York added more money and another year onto his existing contract. For four straight seasons, he made $23 million annually. In this, the fifth, he's earning $25 million. The Yankees' reward: the better part of the 2014 season lost to injury, a 4.33 ERA when he has pitched, and zero playoff victories in the last three years.
So enjoy it when Nationals stars/millionaires present and past take the mound against each other. Revel, for now, in the fact that Strasburg's - Washington's first true baseball star in more than a generation when he arrived - enjoys it enough here that he wanted to stay. But be realistic, too, about what to expect as pitchers move into their 30s, when both their bank accounts and their ERAs tend to get fatter.
