This is, I promise, going to be about the Falcons. Bear with me for four paragraphs.
By Thanksgiving 2007, Dan Radakovich had seen enough. Georgia Tech’s athletic director had decided to fire Chan Gailey, the coach he’d inherited 21 months earlier. Only once in seven seasons had Gailey’s Jackets won more than seven games, and even the exception ended badly — Tech lost its final three games in 2006.
For Radakovich, the point of departure came Nov. 1, 2007. With No. 11 Virginia Tech as the opponent and Big Boi of OutKast performing in a heavily promoted halftime show, the Jackets couldn’t fill Bobby Dodd Stadium on a Thursday night. Even worse, Virginia Tech won 27-3. Worst of all, Gailey’s appearance in a public service announcement shown on the message board was booed.
Radakovich saw he had a coach who wasn’t a failure but wasn’t apt to be a raging success; a coach whose program inspired few in the Tech community; a coach who could be replaced by someone who might well do better. There was, however, one hitch: The Jackets were playing No. 6 Georgia two days after Thanksgiving. What if Tech won? Could Radakovich in good conscience fire a coach whose greatest failing was never beating Georgia after he finally beat Georgia?
The answer: No, he couldn’t. So Radakovich and his closest associates watched the game knowing its outcome would determine the course of Tech football for the next year and maybe for many years. That the Jackets lost 31-17 came almost as a relief. The AD was free to do what needed doing, and two days later he did. Gailey was fired Nov. 26. Paul Johnson was hired 11 days later.
Which brings us, via the scenic route, to the local NFL franchise. The Falcons are 9-21 over the past two seasons. A case can be made that they’ve been worse this year than last. In 2013, they played eight games — half their schedule — against opponents that won 10 or more games. In 2014, they’ve played only seven teams guaranteed to finish above .500.
If the season ended today, the belief here is that Blank would fire coach Mike Smith or general manager Thomas Dimitroff and probably both. (Latest whispers hold that the GM is in bigger trouble, which would be saying something; after the Cleveland whiff, Smith seemed a gone goose.) Thing is, the season doesn’t end today.
If the 5-9 Falcons get to 7-9, they’ll win their division and play host to a postseason game. Their opponent could be Arizona, which is the only plus-.500 team the Falcons have beaten in two years and which is down to its No. 3 quarterback. Say the Falcons take the NFC South and win in Round 1 and upset somebody — they just played Green Bay within six points at Lambeau Field — in Round 2. Would that be enough to save Smith and/or Dimitroff?
As much as we on the periphery might harrumph, “One hot streak in two years doesn’t change the big picture,” it could well sway sentiment. Georgia AD Damon Evans stood ready to fire basketball coach Dennis Felton in March 2008, but doggone if the Bulldogs didn’t win the conference tournament and qualify for the NCAA. Had Georgia lost the SEC final by one point in triple overtime, Felton would have been fired the next day. As it was, he kept his job.
But here’s the greater point: He kept it for only 10 1/2 months. Evans fired Felton in January 2009. One hot streak brought a gust of good will but didn’t change the climate.
If the Falcons’ woes are systemic enough that Blank today feels new leadership is warranted, he should feel the same no matter what happens the next few weeks. (Unless the Falcons up and win the Super Bowl, which they won’t.) Systemic woes don’t disappear because you won the worst division ever. And, as was the case with Tech/Gailey, there’s also the matter of public opinion.
Three of the past four home dates have seen vast numbers of opposing fans — Bears, Browns and Steelers — occupy the Dome. Already a soft ticket, the Falcons are scheduled to announce prices of the personal seat licenses for the new stadium early next year. The prices will be met with outrage. Imagine if the Falcons go 7-9, lose in Round 2 and retain the current adminstration. Imagine how those PSLs sell then.
Going further: What if Smith and Dimitroff remain and next season isn’t appreciably better? Then Blank will be seeking a new coach/GM to shepherd a rebuilding team through its lame-duck Dome year and into Xanadu come 2017, and that’ll be no easy task. If the Falcons are to make major changes, better to make them now and let the new guys have two seasons before the move.
It would, however, be just this franchise’s luck to have a late-season surge prove counterproductive. It’s pretty clear today what needs to happen. It will be less clear if the Falcons win in Green Bay four weeks hence.
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