The Falcons are 3-0 and getting better as they go. Their second half against Dallas was among the most impressive road performances I’ve witnessed from any Falcons team, my benchmark being the 41-10 victory at New England on Nov. 8, 1998. That season would end in Super Bowl XXXIII.
Understand: I’m not yet saying these Falcons, who’ve trailed in the fourth quarter of every game, are a Super Bowl team. What I am saying: The prospects for this becoming a really big season have grown – not incrementally but exponentially – with every week.
There’s a reason I keep citing the numbers crunched by Football Outsiders: Numbers aren’t products of you-were-there excitement, in which even jaded journalistic types can get swept up. Numbers are unfeeling. After three weeks, here are Football Outsiders’ bloodless projections for the Falcons – a 63.6 percent chance of winning the NFC South, an 88.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, a 23.2 percent chance of being the No. 1 seed and a 45.4 percent chance of a first-round bye.
Oh, and a 6.3 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Football Outsiders lists five NFL teams with better odds of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy: New England, Arizona, Green Bay, Denver and Cincinnati. If you’re asking, “Are the Falcons as strong as any of those five?”, my answer would be no. (My answer today, though maybe not tomorrow.) The longer any team stays unbeaten, the more its odds improve. The Falcons could stay undefeated for a while.
Yes, they could lose to Houston on Sunday. But they’re favored by a touchdown, and here’s where this gets intoxicating. It’s possible the Falcons will be favored in every game from now until Dec. 13, when they’ll face Carolina in Charlotte.
Only one of the Falcons’ next nine games will come against an opponent that, after three weeks, has a winning record. The exception is Minnesota, and that game will be staged here. Sure, records will change over the next two months, but still: If the Falcons are any good at all – and that second half at AT&T Stadium suggested they can be very good – they could win a slew of games.
Numbers being unfeeling, they don’t get carried away. Football Outsiders’ projected win totals tend not to go hog-wild on any club. Even as it’s being suggested that the Patriots could again be bound for 16-0, Football Outsiders shows New England’s “mean wins” total at 12.5. The Falcons are now listed with 11.6 mean wins. Rounded up, that’s 12-4.
How many times have the Falcons gone 12-4 or better? Four. Three of those seasons — 1980, 2010 and 2012 — yielded No. 1 seeds; the fourth produced an NFC title.
But now you’re asking: What about Carolina? Aren’t the Panthers likewise 3-0? Aren’t they playing essentially the same schedule?
Answers: Carolina is a solid team, not to be dismissed, and is indeed 3-0. Question No. 3 is where the difference lies: The Panthers have to play Seattle and Green Bay, neither of which the Falcons do, and must face the three NFC East teams the Falcons have already beaten. Carolina is 3-0 having played opponents that are 2-7; the Falcons are 3-0 against teams that are 4-5.
That’s surely why Football Outsiders’ proprietary power rankings slot the Falcons a spot ahead of the Panthers (No. 8 to No. 9) and why Carolina is given only a 33.4 percent chance of taking a third consecutive NFC South title. The Panthers’ schedule isn’t terribly demanding; the Falcons’ schedule is, to borrow from the late great Joe Dean, as soft as church music.
As for the flesh-and-blood stuff, here goes: Julio Jones is the NFL’s best receiver and maybe its best player; Matt Ryan is an excellent quarterback; Desmond Trufant is a Pro Bowl cornerback, the rookie Vic Beasley Jr. has been good; the offensive line has been better than anyone dreamed.
Three weeks ago, I thought this team could go 10-6 if things broke right. They’ve broken so right that I’m now thinking 12-4. Then I check the schedule and wonder if there are really four losses on it. Then I slap myself upside the head.
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