Perhaps you’ve been underwhelmed by what the Falcons have done in free agency. (We stipulate that it’s early yet.) Perhaps you heard they landed a defender from Houston and were disappointed it wasn’t J.J. Watt. Perhaps you noted that Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus, in a post for ESPN Insider, graded their signing of the Texans’ Brooks Reed a C-plus.
If so, here’s where we offer a consoling word. Four of them, to be precise.
Free agency is overrated.
The AJC’s D. Orlando Ledbetter compiled a listing of the five best free agents signed by the Falcons under Thomas Dimitroff, who has been in place (although that place has shifted) since January 2008. No. 1 was Michael Turner, who would gain 1,300 or more yards in three seasons and make the Pro Bowl twice. No. 2 was Devin Hester, a returner and fourth receiver. No. 3 was Mike Peterson, a serviceable linebacker. Nos. 4 and 5 were safeties Dwight Lowery and Erik Coleman.
The point being: Dimitroff has signed one free agent (Turner) who made a real difference. That’s one in seven years, which doesn’t seem like many, but this isn’t intended as a slam of TD the GM. Not many difference-makers are allowed to change teams. Reggie White was one, albeit 22 years ago. Drew Brees was another, albeit in 2006. Peyton Manning was another, although special circumstances — he’d been hurt and the Colts wanted to draft Andrew Luck — were involved.
Pre-Dimitroff, the best FA landed by the Falcons was Warrick Dunn, who was very good here. But Dunta Robinson wasn’t, and Ray Edwards was awful, and Steven Jackson, hailed as an upgrade over Turner, wasn’t half the producer the Burner had been, and Osi Umenyiora did nothing. And last year’s Toughness Graft — Jon Asamoah, Tyson Jackson, Paul Soliai — made nary a dent. Sometimes there’s a reason free agents are available.
That said, I submit that the Falcons have been no worse — but certainly no better — at picking free agents than most teams. An NFL free agent is someone with some years on him who has been deemed inessential by his current team. Often that declaration means, “We wouldn’t mind keeping him, but not at that price.”
Stan Kasten, who has been president of many professional teams, once said of free agents: “The team that best knows a player’s value is the one that has him.” If that team thinks it’d do better to spend money on someone else, that should tell us something. But the nice thing about the NFL, where contracts aren’t guaranteed, is that whiffing on a free agent carries a lesser stigma. The Falcons cut Jackson after two years; the Braves only wish they could have cut Melvin Upton Jr. after two years.
NFL free agency often is no more than a round of musical chairs. Not many franchise quarterbacks come to market. (Brees didn’t become a franchise quarterback until he left San Diego.) After quarterbacks, the most essential players on NFL teams are pass rushers and left tackles, and those guys are hoarded. Receivers, running backs, linebackers, interior linemen, even cornerbacks — they’re mostly seen as interchangeable.
Example: As we around here moaned that Sean Weatherspoon’s loss to a torn Achilles last summer was massive, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders assessed the linebacker’s value as “a quarter of a win,” which was to say negligible. If you’re concerned that Weatherspoon just exited to sign with the Cardinals, keep that nugget in mind.
In other sports, difference-makers change teams all the time. In the 1992 baseball winter meetings at Louisville’s Galt House, Barry Bonds and Greg Maddux signed with new clubs, and for a dizzying moment the Braves’ John Schuerholz thought he’d hooked both. LeBron James changed teams twice in four years. Pro football isn’t like that. There aren’t as many guys who can actually alter a team’s fortunes, and what few there are tend to stay put.
All of which means: The Falcons were never going to do more than tweak their roster in free agency. The draft is the place where the real remaking has to happen, if it happens at all.
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