So, if you have any kind of resume as a Falcons fan, you probably feel like you’ve been wearing a hair shirt because, well, who can figure out this team, especially on third downs?
There’s no reconciling the differences between the offense and the defense.
An offense that sputtered last season ranks No. 2 in the NFL with a third-down conversion rate of 50 percent – even with a blah running game -- while a defense that surged in 2017 is metering at No. 31 in third-down conversions allowed at 54.12 percent.
Man, being second-best on one and second-worst on the other sure itches.
So, maybe your question is, can the Falcons’ offense help the defense square things up?
Well, maybe, but with a seasonal asterisk. Yes, offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel offer each other insights.
As examples of tips offered from O to D, Sarkisian said, “I think the biggest thing we learned is, ‘Man, this was a tough look, this was a tough pressure, or this was a tough coverage.’
“We get the same information from them: ‘Here’s a really tough run somebody ran against us; you guys should look into it.’ Sometimes that run fits our scheme, other times it just doesn’t fit our scheme. Cool play, but it doesn’t always fit what we do.”
Problem is, most exchanges like this happen earlier in the year.
“A lot of that stuff happens more in the offseason when we’re going against each other. When you go all the way back to OTAs and throughout training camp, we go against each other a lot so that’s where a lot of the suggestions come,” Sarkisian explained.
“... When you get in season, it’s a little more difficult because ... a lot of times when we go on offense we’re doing our thing, and when the defense goes I’m off to the side with Matt (Ryan) or Julio (Jones) or the O-line or whoever working on stuff, so I don’t always get to see and I don’t know what the (defensive) plan is.”
Likely owing at least partly to a rash of injuries, defensive plans have not worked very well since Atlanta’s season-opening 18-12 loss at Philadelphia, a rare game where the offense scuffled on third downs while converting only 4 of 15.
The defense allowed 8 of 16 third-down conversions that night, and those were better-than-average metrics.
There’s no way to way to gloss over the Falcons’ defensive problems on third downs; they’ve been shellacked.
The Falcons’ defense has faced third-and-1 14 times, and opponents have converted 11 – eight times by rushing and with three complete passes in as many tries.
The Falcons have faced 17 rushing plays on third downs, and opponents have converted 14 into first downs, including a 13-yard run on third-and-10.
Coach Dan Quinn has folks run the numbers for him.
He’s not likely to play them in a lottery.
“OK, that assessment came back and we’re doing things that we like (but) it’s in that 3- to 6 (-yard) window that we have certain areas that we can improve,” Quinn said. “Do we have certain matchups, certain coverages that we play in there? That’s what we’ve tried to implement this week. Each team that you go through has a little different style on third down.”
Quinn’s partially right, although the full truth is his team has been riddled in almost all third-down situations.
The Falcons have allowed only two third-down conversions in 18 third-down situations where opponents had nine or more yards to gain.
But that’s the easy stuff.
And it’s easy to move past Atlanta allowing 11 of 14 third-and-1 conversions (8 of 11 runs, 3 of-3 pass) because that’s a tough situation for every defense.
Look at these other situations, and the Falcons’ conversion rates allowed (all by pass):
Third-and-4: 4-of-7 conversions.
Third-and-5: 5-of-9 conversions.
Third-and-6: 6-of-10 conversions.
Third-and-7: 2-of-3 conversions.
Third-and-8: 7-of-11 conversions.
Ugh.
The Falcons are going on the road.
They’ve lost their first two road games, and with a 3-2 record at home and six of their nine remaining games to be played away from home, they need to figure out third downs on both sides of the ball.
It starts on first down, which so often begets third down. Just ask the quarterback.
“I think in the two games that we had (on the road), we weren’t very productive in the first and second down,” quarterback Matt Ryan said. “If you can stay in front of the chains, especially when you’re on the road and keep yourself in third-and-manageable ...
“That helps you kind of stay on the field and keep the drive going and score points.”
Ryan has room to talk.
He’s scrambled five times this season on third downs, and converted every one into a first down or a touchdown. When he’s passed on third downs, the Falcons have converted 27-of-61 into first downs.
Dropping out situations of third-and-11 or more, he’s completed 23 of 42 (54.8 percent) for first downs, including 5 of 5 conversions on third-and-7 and 5 of 6 on third-and-8.
Maybe defenders should pick Ryan’s brain, and get better on first down. Opponents are averaging 4.78 yards per rush on first-and-10, and 9.98 yards when they pass in that situation.
“The offense and defense will see some (third downs Thursday in practice) and they’ll do some post-practice and again (Friday) into Saturday,” Quinn said. “Having that extra work as we keep dialing down on it, that helps.”
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