The Falcons have defied conventional wisdom.
Winning the turnover battle is a formula with a proven success rate. The Falcons have done quite the contrary entering Week 16. Atlanta is tied for second to last in takeaways in the NFL. Only the winless Browns have fewer. As a result, the Falcons have accumulated a minus-4 turnover differential.
Despite the Falcons’ inability to create game-changing plays on defense, the team finds themselves within reach of a second straight NFC South crown. A position Falcons coach Dan Quinn scratches his head about when looking at that turnover differential stat. Analogous to most coaches, Quinn would have forecast a much different scenario if someone would have told him the team would be deficient in the turnover department in December.
“I would have said really low because if you had told me that part of being in the minus at this part of the year when we really try to emphasize it,” Quinn admitted when asked how he would feel about the team’s chances at a division title at the start of the season with such a turnover margin.
Although, Quinn did take into account that things would be a little different if some turnovers weren’t negated by penalties.
“We’ve lost I think five or six on some fouls, and I think that would make a real difference where we’ve lost some interceptions. It happened again (last week) where there was a defensive holding penalty that cost the one for (Ricardo) Allen,” Quinn said. “Those six interceptions, that’s a big difference, man, in terms of going from (12) takeaways up to however many it is into that spot, that’s a big difference. That part of our game we’ve got to get cleaned up because we know where we can go to when the ball is right and glad we took a good step in that direction last night.”
In what was a microcosm of their season, the Falcons lost the turnover battle in their last meeting with the Saints. Atlanta coughed the football up three times, while only registering one takeaway and still managed to beat New Orleans, 20-17, on Dec. 7.
“For us to finish at minus-2 that's hard to win,” Quinn said reflecting on the win. “So we know we lost possessions and we didn't gain enough to give it back to the offense. The turnover margin, we've had a couple games where it was really out of whack where we had three. And that kind of really sets us off in a bad way.”
The Falcons probably won’t be as fortunate this time around with the game location in New Orleans. Saints coach Sean Payton said the first meeting was somewhat of an anomaly.
“If you would have just said on paper we were gonna create three turnovers defensively, it's a little bit of the exception to the rule. We weren't able to capitalize enough offensively," Payton said.
Hard-hitting safety Keanu Neal is one player capable of taking the ball away. The second-year safety has amassed eight forced fumbles already in his young career. Cornerback Desmond Trufant is tied for a team-leading two interceptions with linebacker Deion Jones. Neal, Trufant and Jones are the three most proficient players at taking the ball for the Falcons.
“[Turnovers] are one of the things that we continuously talk about,” Falcons defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel said. “If you look at anything that we can continue to get better at, to become great at, is give the offense more opportunities.”
The Falcons will attempt to do just that in Sunday’s rivalry game.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees has thrown seven interceptions. New Orleans’ dynamic backfield combo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have combined for three lost fumbles. The ball will be in the hands of Brees, Ingram and Kamara early and often at the Superdome. Atlanta’s success stealing the football will likely go a long way in deciding the outcome, opposed to last time around.
“Turnovers are always important, especially with the way our offense and how explosive they are,” Falcons third-leading tackler linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said. “I mean, we always try to get them the ball as much as possible and we want to try to keep the ball away from their offense as much as possible. I think turnovers are going to be a huge part of this game.”
In totality, Quinn knows creating turnovers is going to loom large in the next two season-defining games. Crucial contest No. 1 is this weekend in New Orleans. The regular-season ends with a home game against the Panthers. The Falcons are a game behind both teams in the division.
“The mindset is there for it,” Quinn said. “We have got to go capitalize when we get our opportunities. Two things are going to stand out in this game I think quite a bit are going to be the ball and explosive plays.”
