After an up-and-down non-conference schedule, Georgia Tech begins ACC play Saturday at home against Wake Forest. In his third season, coach Josh Pastner has a team that can defend, can’t shoot, is young and appears to be getting better.
Here are five things to look for over the next 18 games.
» A plan gone awry
In the summer, Pastner said that he had challenged five of his guards (Brandon Alston, Jose Alvarado, Michael Devoe, Curtis Haywood and Shembari Phillips) to shoot 43 percent or better. It was part of Pastner’s plan for the Yellow Jackets to be more reliant upon 3-point shooting after keeping it muzzled for his first two seasons (in no small part because of its inconsistency).
As ACC play begins, Tech has made 31 percent of its 3-pointers (309th of 351 Division I teams) and only Alston is at 45 percent, with the other four at 36 percent or below. Pastner is perplexed particularly by Devoe (27 percent) and Alvarado (25 percent), the latter of whom shot 37 percent last season. Pastner is hopeful that the Jackets are overdue and that they’ll see better results, in the 36-38 percent range. Alvarado has been putting in extra work to extricate himself from his slump.
“They’re better than their percentages,” Pastner said. “Those are facts. That’s not just me wishing or trying to be Mr. Positive Paul.”
» Better at the other end
The one thing Tech is doing well? Playing defense. The Jackets rank 19th nationally in field-goal percentage defense. Forward James Banks ranks 21st nationally at 2.42 blocks per game and alters just as many shots if not more. Haywood and Devoe, both long of limb, challenge shots and create deflections and steals.
“It’s about just playing hard,” Alvarado said. “It’s not about strategies or anything.”
The offense, as noted, is a work in the progress, but Tech’s effort on defense and its mix of man and zone schemes have caused problems and should keep Tech in games. The Jackets, however, are about to face an onslaught of scoring expertise. Eleven of the ACC’s 15 teams are ranked in the top 60 in offensive efficiency (KenPom).
» Moving the ball
Pastner wants to avoid long possessions for a number of reasons, including the fact that they lack a go-to scorer who can bail out the offense by getting a basket or draw a foul in the last seconds of the shot clock.
“That is something we’ve talked about, that if you’re open and your feet are set, even if it’s early in the clock, shoot it,” Pastner said.
For a team that has struggled as much on offense as Tech, getting scores in transition, even in the few seconds after the defense has retreated but hasn’t fully set, is critical. It’s incumbent upon the Jackets to push the pace after defensive stops, meaning quick outlet passes and guards like Alvarado and Devoe making good decisions on the break.
“We think if we get the rebound cleanly and get it out to the guards and just push the ball up, we can get a lot of points,” Haywood said.
» How they stack up
The Jackets were picked to finish 13th in the ACC before the season and haven’t done much to drastically challenge that projection. It doesn’t help that Tech plays single games against the other five teams picked to finish in the bottom six (average KenPom rating: 89), but have home-and-homes with Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech (average rating: 32).
KenPom projects Tech to finish 6-12 in the ACC for an overall record of 14-17. A three-game improvement at 9-9 – which, given the league’s depth, would be a major achievement – could put the Jackets in the conversation for the NIT. However, Tech’s first NCAA berth since 2010 appears elusive.
Pastner is banking on next season, when his roster will be more mature, to make the NIT and then the NCAA tournament in the year following. Only four power-conference teams have gone longer than Tech since its last NCAA tournament.
» Reasons for hope
The Jackets appear to be improving, which doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll win much in league play, but is something. While he has been inconsistent, Banks is capable of being a double-double player. Devoe, a freshman, has perhaps as much scoring touch as any player on the team. Freshman forward Khalid Moore has gone from playing seven minutes in the opener to a spot in the starting lineup. Forward Evan Cole, back and healthy from an ankle sprain, can be an effective role player.
If, as noted earlier, Alvarado, Devoe and Haywood in particular can start making 3-pointers, the Jackets will have much more of a chance to stay in games.
“If we just help each other out, just cheer each other on, support each other 100 percent, we can go a long ways,” Haywood said.
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