The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings have Georgia Tech at No. 11. Maybe you Tech fans saw that and thought, “That’s too far to jump.” Here’s where we offer a dozen encouraging words: The Yellow Jackets can make the four-team field without straining credulity.
“They need 1, 2 and 3 to win,” said Brad Edwards, who tracks the playoff for ESPN Insider. “And they need 4, 5 and 6 to lose. That’s pretty simple.”
There’s actually one tangle — it involves the definition of “champion” — but first to Edwards’ scenario. Tech needs Nos. 1, 2 and 3 to win to erase any question as to whether a two-loss Alabama/Oregon/TCU would be superior to the two-loss Jackets. This assumes Tech beats No. 4 Florida State for the ACC crown; that domino must fall for anything else to matter.
If Alabama and Oregon win, it would eliminate two two-loss teams — No. 16 Missouri, which faces Alabama for the SEC championship, and No. 7 Arizona, which will meet Oregon for the Pac-12. (TCU plays 2-9 Iowa State. If there’s one team that’s a Final Four lock, it’s TCU.)
Even if Florida State loses to Tech, the Seminoles would have only half as many losses as the Jackets. Still, it’s hard to envision the same committee that rates an undefeated FSU only No. 4 would leave it there after losing its conference title. No. 5 is one-loss Ohio State, which will play No. 13 Wisconsin for the Big Ten championship; because of the loss of quarterback J.T. Barrett, the Buckeyes are a betting-line underdog.
That leaves one-loss Baylor, which is No. 6 and which plays host to No. 9 Kansas State. Tech needs the Bears to lose and to force the committee to choose between the two-loss Wildcats and the two-loss Jackets, and here’s where things could get fuzzy.
The Big 12 doesn’t play a conference championship game anymore. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby said this week that, should there be a tie atop his league, the Big 12 won’t break it. If TCU wins its regular-season finale, the Horned Frogs and the Baylor-Kansas State winner will both be presented to the committee as champions.
Other conferences see this as unfair. (“Why do they get two champs to our one?”) What nobody knows is whether the committee will honor the league’s request and treat both TCU and Baylor/Kansas State as titlists. Making this comical is the Big 12’s slogan: “One True Champion.”
Because this is the playoff’s inaugural season, there’s no precedent for anything. But, as the sagacious Edwards has written, the committee’s written protocol allows it “to select a non-champion … (that is) unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.”
Said Edwards: “Here’s what it comes down to — how big a deal is being a conference champion?”
Then this: “I don’t think we could say Georgia Tech was definitely in, but if those three things (the Jackets winning, Ohio State and Baylor losing) happen and if winning a conference championship is as important as they say, it would have a shot.”
If the Jackets beat FSU, they’d surely hurdle No. 8 Michigan State and No. 10 Mississippi State, neither of which can be a champion. They should stay ahead of Wisconsin on strength of schedule. (According to ESPN’s ratings, Tech’s is the 35th-toughest to the Badgers’ 68th.) And even if Kansas State finishes tied atop the league some consider stronger than the SEC, the Wildcats’ profile — good victories over Oklahoma and Baylor, respectable losses to Auburn and TCU — wouldn’t necessarily outshine the Jackets’.
Edwards: “Georgia Tech’s body of work was non-existent before last three games, but if they beat Florida State they’ll have three top-20 wins (over Clemson, Georgia and FSU). Three wins of that quality is enough, especially when they come late. Can you say ‘unequivocally’ that Kansas State is better than Georgia Tech? I don’t think we can.”
Could the unassuming ACC send a team to the playoff that isn’t Florida State? “The committee says it looks at teams, not conferences,” Edwards said, and it’s worth noting that the mighty SEC has only one team in the top nine. Contrast this with Jeff Sagarin’s USA Today computer rankings, which have five SEC teams in the top seven, and be glad there’s no more computer-fueled BCS.
One thing more: Clarity won’t come early Saturday. Tech-FSU, Baylor-Kansas State and Wisconsin-Ohio State will be played more or less concurrently. To borrow from Bette Davis in “All About Eve”: Fasten your seat beats — it’s going to be a bumpy night.
