Just in time to spoil your summer, we offer Pigskin Pickin’, our annual long-range look at the college football season. These predictions come with only one guarantee: You’ll disagree with them all.
Georgia will go 10-2 and finish second in the SEC East. Kirby Smart has brought a blend of entitlement and paranoia to Athens. The paranoid bit I get: He worked under Nick Saban. The entitled part seems odd, given that Smart's career record is 0-0. But the fresh prince of Clarke County did inherit an inviting schedule. If the Bulldogs can beat North Carolina on Sept. 3 in the Georgia Dome — Carolina was last seen yielding 756 yards (645 rushing) to a Baylor team missing two quarterbacks — this could/should be a 10-win debut. Figure on back-to-back losses to Ole Miss and Tennessee and wins against everybody else.
Tennessee had darn well better win the East. Last year's pick of the Volunteers as division champs largely was a process of elimination. I figured that Georgia would find some way to blow it, that South Carolina was on the rocks and that Florida wasn't very good. (I was right about all of above, but the Gators maximized meager resources and claimed the East.) This year I'm thinking Tennessee beats Georgia in Athens, then loses at Texas A&M (trap game) and to Alabama — but wins the East via head-to-head tiebreaker. But this I vow: If these Vols don't break through, I'll not pick them in 2017.
Clemson will win the national championship. Once a Dabo doubter, I've become something close to a believer, though my greatest faith is in Deshaun Watson, the quarterback from Gainesville High. Swinney has built a powerful program that came very close to beating a tremendous Alabama team in one of the greatest games ever. (Ask Smart about the 550 yards that Watson and Co. amassed against his defense.) There's a tricky opener at Auburn on the aforementioned Sept. 3 — is that an overstuffed day or what? — but I can't see this offense being undone by that defense.
Baylor will crater; Ole Miss will not. The pre-Memorial Day newsmakers both figured to be top-10 teams. One still does. Unless someone of consequence gets fired/suspended, the furor around Oxford shouldn't distract the Rebels from their appointed rounds. In Waco, the Bears have replaced let-it-fly Art Briles with buttoned-down Jim Grobe, whose best Wake Forest team won the 2006 ACC championship by beating Georgia Tech in a game without a touchdown. Credibility-wise, Grobe was a fine interim choice. Stylistically, he'll be at odds with everything that brought Baylor to prominence.
The College Football Playoff will include ACC champ Clemson, SEC champ Alabama, Big 12 champ Oklahoma and Big Ten champ … Michigan! Jim Harbaugh won the offseason with his Florida practices and his satellite camps and his Twitter takedowns of the snooty SEC. Now, for those already sick of the man in khaki, here's the really bad news: He can also coach.
LSU will decide to fire Les Miles for a second time. The school had made up its collective mind to dump Miles when it allowed public sentiment — and a victory over Texas A&M, which should have been no big deal — to override that decision. But this remains a program on the descent: The Tigers' best victory last season came over Florida, which was about to fall apart. Of its three losses, the closest was by 14 points. Should LSU lose — on Sept. 3! — to Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, he'll again be Miles To Go.
Florida State and Florida will disappoint. Lots of folks are high on the Seminoles. I'm not among them. They beat nobody who was very good last season, lost to the worst Georgia Tech team in a generation and no-showed the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl against Houston. Dalvin Cook is a great back, but FSU hasn't found a post-Jameis quarterback who can make its offense work. The Gators haven't had a real quarterback since Tim Tebow. Maybe Luke Del Rio, who has spent time at Alabama and Oregon State, will be that guy. Probably not.
Auburn will lose six games. The Gus Bus has stripped its gears. Will Bobby Petrino ride to the rescue on his motorcycle?
Georgia Tech will go 7-5. I came close to making this 6-6 before granting Paul Johnson the benefit of some (but not all) doubt. I don't see the Yellow Jackets being vastly improved over last season, when they were 3-9. I see the ACC Coastal being much tougher, what with Mark Richt, Justin Fuente and Bronco Mendenhall taking the helm of listing programs. Pat Narduzzi is doing nice work at Pittsburgh. I see a bad moon a-rising o'er the Flats.
The bottom of the SEC East will again be awful. The frightful foursome of South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Missouri won a total of six conference games last season, all six against each other. Mizzou just lost Gary Pinkel. South Carolina replaced Steve Spurrier, who could coach, with Will Muschamp, who can't. Kentucky and Vandy are due to fire somebody. We ask again: How did Georgia go three years without winning this division?
Richt and Miami will win the ACC Coastal. Yeah, I'd lost confidence in his ability to win championships, but he's at a difference place in an even lesser division, and he has a real quarterback in Brad Kaaya. Richt tends to do well when he has a real quarterback.
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