At the beginning of the season, before expectations were tempered by results, Georgia State men’s basketball coach Ron Hunter said he didn’t want his team to peak in December. Instead, he hoped it would peak in February and March.
A few losses — some ugly, some close — followed.
Now, the Panthers (13-7, 6-3) are again near the top of the Sun Belt Conference as they try to defend the regular-season title won last year. And, Hunter said he thinks they are starting to peak, following the timeline he wished for months ago.
“I don’t think we’ve played our best game, but every team takes on a winning formula, and once you find that formula you stick with it,” Hunter said. “I think we’ve found that and … the last 4-5 games we are starting to see that.”
The Panthers won four of their previous five entering play Thursday at Texas-Arlington. They play host to Arkansas State on Saturday. They are half-game behind surprising Georgia Southern with 11 conference games remaining.
The formula to overtake the Eagles includes ball-movement and smart shot selection on offense and a deeper bench with subs that can make the right rotations on defense.
In the past four wins, the Panthers are averaging 73.75 points and shooting an average of 48 percent with 12.5 assists per game. Those are mostly consistent with the season averages of 73.3 points, 48.8 percent shooting and 13.8 assists per game.
But as Hunter points out, not every quality shot becomes a made basket. He said his staff charted 12 misses on quality shots in Saturday’s win over Louisiana-Lafayette. He can live with those misses as long they shots are good.
When the offense is more patient — and the evidence can be seen by watching how frequently passes are made from side to side across the opponent’s defense — it not only reduces the amount of time the Panthers have to spend on defense but also usually leads to better shots.
“The great part is we haven’t had a game where everybody clicked,” Hunter said.
On defense during those same four games, the Panthers are allowing an average of 63 points, 37.2 percent shooting and forcing 16.25 turnovers. Both are slightly better than the season averages of 65.7 points, 39.8 percent shooting 15.95 turnovers per game.
Hunter said he can begin to see patterns of stops on defense, scores on offense and stops on defense.
“That’s when wins really start to pile up,” Hunter said.
The problem is, as exemplified in many of Georgia State’s wins and most of their losses, is an inability to consistently and emphatically close teams out when a big lead has been built. The stop-score-stop pattern is replaced by score-stop-score. Sometimes, such as the win at home against Louisiana-Lafayette, the Panthers have held on. Sometimes, such as in the loss at Louisiana-Lafayette, they haven’t.
Finishing games may be the last ingredient in getting this season’s team to peak.
Ryan Harrow said he thinks Georgia State gets too emotionally caught up in the other team’s momentum. Instead of relying on what helped build the lead — patient offense and communication and fundamentals on defense — the parts start to break down.
It’s not a bad thing that the team has yet to play its best game. Harrow said the best game doesn’t need to be played until the Sun Belt tournament and NCAA tournament, when it’s win or go home.
Last season’s team, which went 17-1 in the Sun Belt, peaked too early.
Instead of playing its best in the final weeks, its best came in late December and January, fueled by its 15-game win streak. The team began to lose steam in the season’s final two months amid nagging injuries and a lack of depth and had trouble finishing games in March, culminating in blowing an 11-point lead in the final six minutes of the Sun Belt tournament championship. That defeat cost the Panthers a spot in the NCAA tournament.
Hunter said this season’s team has the players on the bench who know how to play within the zone defense to avoid giving up too much should R.J. Hunter or Harrow, the team’s leading scorers, need to rest.
Like his coach, Harrow can see progress as the team starts to come together.
“Our best game, we are doing good on defensive and offensive ends for 40 minutes, not 25 minutes,” he said. “Once we get a full game on offense and defense, playing basketball we know we can play, we’ll blow teams out. We’ll be having fun, laughing and joking and all of that.”
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