Georgia Tech was a two-touchdown underdog against a Georgia team that had lost to South Carolina and Florida. The Jackets are now a 3 1/2-point underdog against an opponent that hasn’t lost to anybody since Nov. 24, 2012. The Vegas line reflects what has become the overarching theme of this season: Even if nobody has gotten around to beating Florida State, the Seminoles appear eminently beatable.
The belief here is that Tech will be the team that does the deed. Here’s how and why.
1. This year's Noles aren't last year's Noles. The FSU of 2013 would beat the FSU of 2014 by two touchdowns. Florida State was great across the board a year ago — third nationally in total defense, sixth in total offense, third in turnover margin. It had a quarterback (Jameis Winston) who passed for more than 4,000 yards, a running back (Devonta Freeman, now with the Falcons) who rushed for more than 1,200 yards and two 1,000-yard receivers (Rashad Greene and Kelvin Benjamin). This year it's 46th in total offense, 46th in total defense and 91st in turnover margin. Its leading rusher (Dalvin Cook) has 728 yards. It has one 1,000-yard receiver (Greene again) but nobody else with even 520 yards. Winston has thrown for 3,250 yards and did, to be fair, sit out the Clemson game. But that's only part of it.
2. Famous Jameis is throwing the ball to the wrong team. Last year he passed for 40 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. This year he has 21 touchdowns, 17 interceptions. He threw four interceptions — three in the first half — against Florida on Saturday. He's still really good when he gets it going, but it's taking him longer and longer. Of those 17 interceptions, 13 have come in first halves. According to ESPN Stats & Information, only Nick Arbuckle of 1-11 Georgia State threw as many first-half INTs as the reigning Heisman holder.
3. Not coincidentally, Florida State keeps falling behind. A year ago, the Noles went 583 minutes and 42 seconds — from the final two minutes of the second quarter against Boston College on Sept. 28 until the BCS title game against Auburn; this again via ESPN S&I — without trailing. This year they've trailed five times after a quarter and six times at the half. That they've lost none of the above tells us that they've been unbelievably good at playing from behind. But falling behind Tech mightn't be quite the same.
4. It's true that Florida State did override an 18-point deficit to beat Auburn, which ran the ball pretty darn well, but again: That was last season. Those Seminoles were among the mightiest teams ever; these Seminoles closed their regular season with a four-point win over 6-6 Miami, a three-point win over 7-5 Boston College and a five-point win over 6-5 Florida. Last year's average margin of victory was 39.5 points; this year it's 12.6 — roughly one-third as much.
5. Tech's strengths dovetail almost eerily with the Seminoles' weaknesses. FSU is 42nd in rushing defense, 88th in time of possession; the Jackets are third in rushing offense and time of possession. The Noles, as noted above, are loose with the ball; Tech is 10th in turnover margin. Florida State is 89th in third-down defense; the Jackets lead the nation in converting third downs.
Conclusion: If the Jackets can get ahead early — and getting ahead of FSU has become a weekly occurrence — the same ground control and clock-bleeding that we saw over the final 33:03 against Georgia could happen even sooner in Charlotte. If the Noles' defense can't get off the field on third down, the frustration and pressure will build, same as it did on the Bulldogs.
The difference is that Georgia was playing for state pride and a nicer bowl; the Seminoles are playing for history. Tech-Georgia was on the SEC Network at noon; the ACC Championship game will be on ABC in prime time with a nation watching to see if the defending champ, which has spent three months dancing on the lip of a volcano, finally slips. If Tech loses, the worst that happens is that it goes to the Orange Bowl. But it won’t lose. It will win 31-27.
