At this time last year, the Hurricanes cut down the net after winning the ACC regular-season title and entered the conference tournament believing a long run was possible.
They still think that. It’s just the odds are a lot longer.
After losing its top six scorers from last year’s team, Miami needed Saturday’s win over Wake Forest to avoid finishing below .500 for the first time since 2007.
Now the 10th-seeded Hurricanes (16-15, 7-11) return to the Greensboro Coliseum for Wednesday’s game against 15th-seeded Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m., ESPN2), a struggling team that has given them fits this season.
To fight their way up the ladder of a top-heavy tournament, UM will have to handle the Hokies, who finished just 2-16 in conference play (9-21 overall) but beat the Hurricanes for both of their victories. The winner plays seventh-seeded N.C. State at 7 p.m. Thursday, with second-seeded Syracuse waiting to play the winner of that game Friday.
In a new 15-team format, becoming a champion as a 10-15 seed means winning five games in five days. That’s unlikely to happen, given the top four seeds — Virginia, Syracuse, Duke and North Carolina — receive double byes to begin the tournament and boast a combined 56-8 record against the other 11 teams.
TeamRankings.com’s probability numbers give Virginia Tech a zero percent chance to beat Miami, which is questionable since the Hokies won both regular-season meetings.
Miami lost its Dec. 8 ACC opener at home to Virginia Tech, leading by 10 points in the final minutes but falling 61-60 in overtime. On Feb. 15 in Blacksburg, Va., the Hurricanes suffered their worst offensive performance of the season in a 52-45 loss, shooting 15-of-58 (25.9 percent) from the field and 7-of-34 (20.6 percent) from 3-point territory.
“The first game down there early in the year, we caught them,” Hokies coach James Johnson said. “They lost a lot of guys and were still figuring out how they wanted to play. Here, I think we made some shots.
“We got them at a good time in both games. It should be a heck of a game.”
Against teams not named Miami, the Hokies have been dreadful. In the last three months, they have one other win: Dec. 31 against Maryland-Eastern Shore, which finished last in the MEAC. Virginia Tech has lost 16 of 17.
“I think we’re playing good basketball,” Johnson said. “We’re not playing winning basketball. We’re not making winning plays.”
Johnson was UM coach Jim Larranaga’s assistant at George Mason for three years, including a 2006 trip to the Final Four. However, success has eluded him in Blacksburg.
In two seasons, he is 22-40 overall (6-30 in conference play) and has finished last in the ACC both years.
Asked about Johnson this week, Larranaga said in general, a coach should have at least five years to build a program. A tournament win over his mentor would help Johnson’s standing with Virginia Tech’s new athletic director, Whit Babcock, who was hired in January.
One thing is almost certain: This game will be low-scoring.
Playing at the slowest pace in the nation according to statistician Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted tempo ratings, UM averaged 61.7 points per game, which ranked 342nd out of 351 Division I teams, and allowed 59.5, which ranked 11th.
That is the fewest points allowed per game since UM rejoined D-I play in 1985. Since then, only one Hurricanes team — the 1991-92 squad — scored fewer (60.7).
The Hokies, meanwhile, averaged 63.2 points (327th) and allowed 67.3 (102nd).
Shaking off those surprising losses to the Hokies, UM closed the regular season by winning four of six and went 5-4 in the second half of the ACC schedule after starting off 2-7.
Before the season, Larranaga was asked what message he would send to the team’s supporters. He said to be patient, since it could be a long season.
Has his team performed better than expected?
“I’d have to say yes. I hate to say that, though,” he said. “As a coach, you go into every game thinking you’re going to win. You think your plan is good enough to win. It doesn’t matter who you’re playing against.”
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