As a long-time Division I men's basketball coach once told me, February is the halfway pole in the race for the Final Four.
So as the teams with March Madness aspirations continue to jockey for position, let's look back at the first two-plus months of the season, and look ahead to what might happen in the postseason.
SURPRISE TEAM
Gonzaga: The Zags have become a standard of success in the West, but their rise to No. 1 in this week's polls surprised those who questioned how they compensate for the loss of four starters from last year's team. Several preseason magazines went as far as to predict they wouldn't finish first in their conference.
DISAPPOINTING TEAM
Michigan State: We just assume that Tom Izzo-coached teams are Final Four contenders, because they almost always are. But not this one. The Spartans lack a go-to offensive player and their team defense is porous. Could be a struggle to even make the 68-team field this season. Michigan State has been reeling since its opening-round loss to Middle Tennessee State in last year's tournament.
COACH-OF-YEAR CANDIDATE
Mark Few: He has built a national program at Gonzaga, but even he must pinch himself when he realizes his team is undefeated and ranked No. 1. Few lost four starters, who combined for 55 points per game, from a Sweet 16 team that won 28 games and eliminated Seton Hall in the NCAAs. Even with lottery pick Domatas Sabonis in the NBA, Gonzaga's offensive production hasn't dropped off.
PROJECTED NO. 1 SEEDS
Villanova, Kansas, Baylor and Gonzaga. Waiting in the wings: Arizona
KNICK IMPERSONATORS
UCLA: There are times when the Bruins are unstoppable offensively. Then they forget to play defense, just like the Knicks, as they did last week in losing to Arizona and USC.
PLAYER-OF-YEAR CANDIDATES
A wide-open competition, led by Villanova's Jason Hart. His stat sheet won't always knock you over, but he's a coach's dream: somebody who'll take a game-winning shot one time and get the ball to somebody else the next time. UCLA's Alonzo Ball, the engineer when the Bruins' offense is full steam, is a similar player. The memory of Kentucky freshman Malik Monk scoring 47 points against North Carolina in mid-December is still in the memory bank of some voters.
THE VILLAIN
Grayson Allen, Duke: With suspensions for tripping opponents the last two seasons, he is right out of Central Casting.
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