With no first-round pick in a draft that's considered short on depth, the Hawks face long odds of finding the next Gilbert Arenas or Carlos Boozer in this week's NBA draft.
Those two players became All-Stars after they were drafted in the second round but they are the outliers in the history of the draft. It's uncommon for teams to find players in the second round who become even established starters, much less stars.
There is a chance, however, that the Hawks can find a player who eventually becomes a rotation player and a relatively cheap one too. The Hawks are preparing for Thursday's draft with the idea that they can beat the percentages and select a player who can contribute with the No. 48 overall pick.
“We are not approaching this like there is luck involved,” Hawks assistant general manager Dave Pendergraft said. “We are approaching it like, ‘This is our pick and somebody we expect to make our team.’ And hopefully, if there is an injury [to a regular], you can plug [the rookie] in there and they will be able to help.”
That's difficult to pull off. The Hawks traded their first-round pick to Washington in February as part of the deal to acquire Kirk Hinrich. That pick ended up being No. 18 overall.
According to a study by DraftExpress.com, only 3 percent of the 574 players selected in the second round of the draft from 1980 to 2001 became “star” players. Just 10 percent ended up as “solid starters,” 14 percent topped out as “marginal starters” and 19 percent became “solid bench” players.
Of those 574 players, 29 percent never played in an NBA game and 62 percent played in fewer than 100 games. The percentages are even worse for players selected outside of the first few picks of the second round.
A look at the second-round draft picks since 2001 tells a similar story. Boozer is the only All-Star of a bunch that includes a few steady starters like Monta Ellis and some good reserve players such as Kyle Korver.
The Hawks would be glad to get a solid role player out of the draft. General manager Rick Sund said the Hawks most likely would select an experienced collegiate player.
The Hawks covet size, toughness, shooting and rebounding. Sund said the last two categories generally translate well from college to the NBA.
“We ask a couple different questions [about prospects]," Sund said. "Does he have one NBA skill? Another is, does he have size? Or is there a player that is a little bit opposite of ‘Do they one NBA skill?’ and ‘Do they have multiple skills?'
“A lot of those guys ... are jacks-of-all-trades. They do a lot of things good but nothing necessarily great. Those players do have an opportunity to make it as -- and I’m using this in a positive way -- to have more of a journeyman status over the years.”
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