Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is a big fan of Warren Buffett, even if the 90-year-old tycoon is of no use to him in the bullpen. Filed away in the notebook of Anthopoulos’ phone are various quotes, some from a common-sense businessman whose words seem to resonate with a baseball man.
Buffett says don’t invest in any business you can’t understand. So, Anthopoulos says, he doesn’t play the stock market. He saves his canniness for the Major Leagues, a unique ball market whose daily returns arrive in the form of standings.
And very much like a business Buffett could get behind, Anthopoulos’ Braves have shown a strong, steady growth these last three seasons. They have been blue-chip all the way.
From the ugliness of three straight 90-loss seasons and an international signing scandal by the preceding GM, the Braves’ first postseason appearance in four years coincided with Anthoopoulos’ arrival in 2018.
They won seven more games in the 2019 regular season than the year before and came one little step closer to winning the National League Division Series.
Then, amidst the coronavirus confusion of an abbreviated 2020 schedule, the Braves won a wild card and division series — their first postseason playoff series victories of any kind since 2001 — and came within a game of denying the Los Angeles Dodgers their presumptive spot in the World Series.
Fans of the bar graph would plot these years one next to the other and be quite pleased with the trend. If the Braves were to follow form, shouldn’t this be about the time they break on through to the Fall Classic? That’s about the only place left to go from here if the trend is to be honored, right?
So, go ahead and start laying in supplies for one long October baseball bacchanal.
Credit: Curtis Compton / curtis.compton@ajc.com
Credit: Curtis Compton / curtis.compton@ajc.com
But consider a couple possible sticking points, if you must.
The Braves are not operating in a vacuum. For some reason, other teams refuse to simply stand aside and watch the Braves blossom. Las Vegas does not fully recognize the purity and beauty of their growth chart. The Dodgers, who keep spending like they’re their own government, are less than 2-to-1 picks to win the National League pennant. San Diego and its hipster lineup is around 4-to-1 on futures line. That great March sucker bet, the Mets, are in play again, in the same 5-to-1 range as the Braves.
What do they say in small print in the investment brochures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
“You’re starting over every year,” Anthopoulos said, kind of stepping all over the continual growth theme. “You don’t have any teams that are rebuilding in (the National League East). Every team is trying to win, every team has a chance to win. Two teams in the division made the playoffs last year (the Braves and Miami Marlins) and the year before that, the Nationals won the World Series. The Mets are significantly better and I think Philadelphia is a lot better, too.
“You don’t look back.”
And remember they are working with the most schizophrenic capital of all, human capital. Assuming the Braves continue on their upward path is to assume that the young human beings filling out the uniforms in large part stay healthy and fight off that most dread condition: The prolonged slump.
“Those guys who are consistent year in and year out, those are the Hall of Famers,” Anthopoulos said. “Very few players can be consistently great year in and year out. It’s hard.”
Does starting pitcher Mike Soroka return fully to form after Achilles repair? Do his young peers in the rotation like Max Fried and Ian Anderson build upon the solid foundation they have laid? Can Marcell Ozuna be as popular long-term as he was short? Can Ronald Acuna find yet another level? Is Austin Riley to be trusted at third or Cristian Pache in center?
In answering those and other questions, you must deal more in belief than certainty.
This is no time to take a step back. So, what makes manager Brian Snitker believe that can’t happen this season?
“The continued maturity of this group as a whole,” he answered.
“These guys are getting older and more experienced. They’ve tasted just a little bit more every year,” he said. “Getting within a game of the World Series last year just fuels these guys, their competitiveness. They’re coming to realize what they’re capable of.
Credit: John Bazemore
Credit: John Bazemore
“I think it’s a team that’s going to continue to grow. They started out at a really young age doing this, putting themselves in these positions. With the experience and growth and maturity they’re going to continue to get better every year.”
Another Buffett-ism states that risk comes from not knowing what you are doing. In order to make his push for the World Series this year, Anthopoulos recognizes that he took on a bit more risk than in seasons past. That has to be mitigated by the presumption that he surely must know what he’s doing by this time.
“I think our approach this offseason, we went a little more upside,” the GM said. “Our payroll’s going to be down from what it was in ’20. We’ve been a good, competitive club the last few years and we’re looking for more upside, more ceiling. With that comes more risk.”
Here he points to the faith put in the one-year free agent deal he gave to 37-year-old starter Charlie Morton — “More an upside play; he didn’t have his best year statistically last year but showed something in October (with Tampa Bay),” Anthopoulos said.
Drew Smyly pitched 26 pretty good innings for San Francisco last season and the Braves brought him into the rotation on a one-year deal. Ozuna was otherworldly over 60 games last year and the Braves invested in four more years of, hopefully, that. On such moves is Anthopoulos ultimately judged.
Judgment for each and every Brave now centers on one weighty question: Did you do anything to get one step closer to the World Series, when one step is all it might take?
