Ohio State vs. Michigan is a crucial game in the race for the College Football Playoff this year. The Buckeyes enter Saturday’s game in Ann Arbor as the No. 2 team in the country, with the Wolverines right behind at No. 3.
Who will win The Game? Who will take that all-important next step toward the Playoff? We’ll find out on Saturday afternoon!
Stick around until the end of this column for our best bet!
If you’re going to bet on the game, here’s all the information you need to know:
Ohio State vs. Michigan Betting Lines
Here’s a look at the betting lines for The Game on Saturday, via bet365:
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +3.5 (-110) | O 46.0 (-110) | +150 |
| Michigan | -3.5 (-110) | U 46.0 (-110) | -170 |
When was the last time The Game featured fewer than 47 total points? You have to go back to 2010, when Ohio State beat Michigan 37-7. That game was later vacated, though, so “technically” you have to go back to 2009, when Ohio State won 21-10.
The last time the betting points total was this low was back in 2016, when the over/under was set at 45.5 points. (Ohio State won 30-27 in double-overtime that year.)
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Ohio State betting trends
- Ohio State is 6-3-1 against the spread this season
- Including 5-1 in its last 6
- The under is 9-1 in Ohio State games this season
- Ohio State is 1-2-1 against the spread on the road this season
- The lone cover was against Purdue
- Ohio State has been the favorite every game so far this season prior to Week 13 vs. Michigan
As you can see, Ohio State has been red-hot against the spread in its last 6 games. But the tempting thing is looking at the Buckeyes’ record with the points total under.
Michigan betting trends
- Michigan is 5-5 against the spread this season
- The over is 5-4-1 in Michigan games this season
- The over is 5-1-1 in Michigan’s last 7 games; the only ‘under’ in that stretch was against Penn State
- Michigan is 1-4 against the spread this season at home
- Michigan has been favored in every game so far this season
- This is the first time all season Michigan has been favored at home by fewer than 31 points
- Michigan is 3-1 this season when favored by 20 points or fewer
- Lone loss was last weekend vs. Maryland
Michigan and the over have been a great pair lately, but as you can see, the Wolverines are only 1-4 against the spread at home. What does that mean? Well, it could end up as a tight, low-scoring affair against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State vs. Michigan Havoc Rate
A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
For defenses, a higher havoc rate is a good thing. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.
Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:
- Ohio State offensive havoc rate: 15% (71st percentile)
- Michigan defensive havoc rate: 21% (96th percentile)
Michigan’s defense is elite in this regard. The Wolverines have been a menace to opposing offenses. While Ohio State has been good at protecting the ball, Michigan’s defense has been even better at creating problems for other teams.
- Michigan offensive havoc rate: 11% (97th percentile)
- Ohio State defensive havoc rate: 18% (67th percentile)
Michigan simply doesn’t let opposing defenses impact its offense. The Wolverines take care of the ball, pounding opponents on the ground with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s defense has been fine at producing havoc plays, but it is far from elite.
Ohio State vs. Michigan History
Ohio State vs. Michigan, fittingly dubbed “The Game,” has been played 118 times heading into the 2023 edition on Saturday in Ann Arbor. This year’s showdown features No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Michigan as each team battles to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive.
The College Football Playoff had not yet been thought of when these 2 legendary football squads first met on the gridiron all the way back in 1897. The start of the rivalry didn’t go so well for the Buckeyes, as Michigan jumped out to a 12-0-2 lead in The Game between 1897 and 1912.
Ohio State finally got in the win column against “That Team Up North” in 1919 after Michigan’s 13th win in the series in 1918. (The rivalry was paused from 1913-1917 due to World War I.)
Since then, the Buckeyes have been narrowing the gap. Heading into the 2023 version of The Game, Michigan’s lead in the all-time series has narrowed to 60-51-6. The Wolverines are riding a 2-game winning streak against the Buckeyes after Ohio State rattled off a win every year from 2012 to 2019.
The Game also wasn’t played in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Here’s a look at the last 5 Michigan-Ohio State matchups:
- 2022: No. 3 Michigan 45, No. 2 Ohio State 23
- 2021: No. 5 Michigan 42, No. 2 Ohio State 27
- 2020: NO GAME
- 2019: No. 1 Ohio State 56, No. 13 Michigan 27
- 2018: No. 10 Ohio State 62, No. 4 Michigan 39
- 2017: No. 9 Ohio State 31, Michigan 20
As you can see, these teams are often some of the best in the country. To find a game where 1 of the 2 teams wasn’t ranked, you have to go back to 2017, when Michigan entered The Game without a number in front of its name.
To find a rivalry matchup between the Buckeyes and Wolverines where neither team was ranked, you have to go back a few decades more. Back in 1987, when Ohio State won 23-20 in Ann Arbor, neither team was in the AP Poll top 25.
Who will win on Saturday? That remains to be seen, but whoever does emerge victorious will have a great shot at making the Playoff.
Ohio State vs. Michigan Best Bet
Michigan’s defense is absolutely incredible. The Wolverines have smothered every team it has played this year. Yes, they’ve struggled by their own lofty standards in wake of the sign-stealing scandal and subsequent suspensions/firings.
But this is still an elite football team. The offense doesn’t make mistakes. The defense forces plenty. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s numbers have been only slightly above average. On Saturday, the Wolverines will win by 4+ points and cause Ohio State fans to grow even more frustrated with Ryan Day.
Best bet: Michigan -3.5
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