He may not want the credit, but sometime next year Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the Republican inventor of the SEC primary, could become the man who saved Hillary Clinton’s Democratic presidential campaign.
With her poll numbers sinking, her email excuses building and an anguished Joe Biden pacing the stage like a modern prince of Denmark, Clinton is pointing panicky supporters to her firewall: The March 1 presidential primaries, orchestrated by Kemp, that will be held in several Southern states, including Georgia.
On the Republican side, we have heard something similar from U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who says white Southern evangelicals will be the bulwark who keep him in next year’s race for the White House. But Cruz must prove that he can wrest those voters from former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, neurosurgeon Ben Carson and others.
Hillary Clinton’s Southern firewall may be more formidable, built brick-by-brick over two decades by the husband-and-wife team from Arkansas, largely through potent alliances with African-American leaders.
Democrats in South Carolina will hold their primary on Feb. 27. Three days later, six Southern states plus Oklahoma – all with significant black voting populations – will hold their primaries. Roughly 15 percent of 4,400 delegates to Philadelphia will be decided – 116 in Georgia alone.
“When she then turns to South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast states, that’s really when she clinches the nomination,” said DuBose Porter, chairman of the Georgia Democratic party. “I think [the firewall] is very real.”
But wait, you say. Didn’t this same Clinton wall collapse eight years ago in the race against Barack Obama? Why, yes, it did. But it has been rebuilt, and may now be stronger than before. Guilt is a powerful cement.
The 2008 Democratic presidential primary was a period of torture for many African-Americans, especially in Georgia. Guided by a familiarity that stretched back to the Zell Miller years and the Bill Clinton presidency, figures such as U.S. Reps. John Lewis and David Scott gave early pledges to Hillary Clinton – only to be caught flat-footed when the Obama movement caught fire.
Both congressmen would ultimately switch their support to the senator from Illinois. Obama would win Georgia with 66 percent of 1 million votes cast, to Clinton’s 31 percent. Joe Biden received 2,538 votes, or .2 percent of those cast – an important figure to be considered in who-might-replace-Hillary hypotheticals.
The Clintons hardly helped themselves when the former president picked a primary fight in South Carolina that quickly became a racial melodrama – with Bill Clinton dismissing the importance of the Deep South’s first primary by noting that the Rev. Jesse Jackson won it in 1988.
U.S. Rep. James Clyburn, perhaps the most influential Democrat in South Carolina, may still be ticked off. He’s declared his neutrality in the current contest. “People are really concerned about those emails,” Politico recently quoted him as saying.
That said, Hillary Clinton has hired an ex-Clyburn aide to run her South Carolina campaign. The Clintons haven’t stood still in Georgia, either. They’ve established a strong relationship with Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. This summer, CGI America, the domestic foundation arm of the Clinton Global Initiative, announced that it would hold its 2016 gathering in Atlanta next June – just before the Democratic National Convention.
Spokesmen for congressmen Lewis and Scott describe their bosses as strong Hillary Clinton supporters this time around.
But it’s also worth noting that certain Democrats, who might otherwise be tempted by the more liberal blandishments of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, aren’t biting.
Eight years ago, U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson of Decatur was among the first prominent Democrats in Georgia to endorse Obama – even though two years earlier, Bill Clinton had trekked to Atlanta to endorse his election to Congress.
“It really wasn’t that tough for me,” Johnson said this week. “I just felt that the time was right for Barack Obama, and that he was the man for that time period. I feel the same way about Hillary right now.”
Johnson said he signed onto Clinton 2016 two years ago, long before the former secretary of state jumped into the race. He described Clinton’s support here as “vast and deep.”
“I think that early work she did to capture that support will pay off March 1 – not just in Georgia, but throughout the South,“ Johnson said.
State Sen. Vincent Fort of Atlanta also falls on the more liberal end of the Democratic spectrum. He describes himself as a “devotee” of Hillary Clinton.
“In 2008, Obama versus Hillary was a tough choice for many of us, because of what the Clintons had done,” Fort said. “I don’t know if it’s a matter of being owed, but I think people have the same respect for her that they did then. She’s still a revered figure among Democrats in Georgia.”
Fort specifically cited Clinton’s “debt-free college” proposals. “When I saw that, that was very heartening,” he said.
But there is another, more important reason that Georgia Democrats are unlikely to abandon Hillary Clinton. It has nothing to do with loyalty, or guilt. It has everything to do with extreme self-interest.
After we had hung up, Fort immediately called back. The state senator had an additional motive for supporting Clinton. “It’s my understanding that they’re committed to Georgia,” he said.
Just what did he mean? Everyone in Georgia politics understands that changing demographics portend a future shift in which party will rule the state. But stinging defeats in the 2014 races for governor and U.S. Senate taught Democrats this change could be a long slog, stretching over many election cycles.
Hastening that day would require the massive registration of new voters, a time-consuming and expensive process. It also requires a Democratic presidential candidate who considers Georgia to be something close to winnable, and is willing to spend bucket loads of cash to make it happen.
No matter who else should jump into the Democratic presidential contest, Hillary Clinton is likely to be the only candidate who fits that bill.
Mutual interests are at stake. Clinton needs Georgia Democrats to construct her firewall. Democrats here need Clinton to help chip away at one.
About the Author
