73 days until vote
Only 73 days are left until Election Day on Nov. 8. All year, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has brought you the key moments in federal and state races, and we will continue to cover the campaign’s main events, examine the issues and analyze candidates’ finance reports until the last ballot is counted. You can follow our political coverage on our politics page at myAJC.com, or track us on Twitter and Facebook.
Are we or aren’t we? Polls have gone back and forth, and both major-party campaigns have made minor investments in the state. So far, our local airwaves are free of blaring campaign ads, yet, major television networks and publications have declared Georgia a battleground state. Here’s a look at why Georgia will — and won’t — be a swing state in the fight between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.
POLLS
YES, we're a battleground state: RealClearPolitics.com, which aggregates state-by-state polls of the presidential race, shows Clinton holds a 0.3-point lead in an average of all polls done in Georgia since late July. That includes an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted early this month that had Clinton ahead by 4 percentage points as well as a CBS poll from Aug. 12 that had Trump ahead by 4 percentage points.
NO, we're not a battleground state: The CBS poll used a sample of "likely voters," while the other polls that showed Clinton leading used "registered voters." At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver's data gurus explained in 2014 that polls of registered voters over the past several election cycles have overstated Democratic advantages by several percentage points.
CAMPAIGN INFRASTRUCTURE
YES, we're a battleground state: Of the two major-party candidates, both have paid staff on the ground in Georgia. Clinton has sent cash to the Democratic Party of Georgia to help boost field operations, and this past weekend her state campaign opened its headquarters in Atlanta.
NO, we're not a battleground state: Neither candidate has spent a dime on television advertising here, and Trump's campaign has signaled it plans to rely on the Georgia Republican Party to handle its get-out-the-vote effort, a sign the Republican sees no need to pump real money into Georgia. Yes, Clinton sent money to the state party, but nobody will say how much — meaning it could be a drop in the bucket, a symbolic measure to pretend the campaign is challenging in Georgia.
THIRD-PARTY INFLUENCE
YES, we're a battleground state: The Libertarian Party's nominee for president, Gary Johnson, is a former Republican governor of New Mexico who could siphon votes away from Trump here. The last time Georgia went for a Democrat in a presidential election was 1992, when Bill Clinton won with 43.47 percent of the vote, thanks to independent Ross Perot, who took more than 13 percent. It was a direct blow to incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush, who finished with 42.88 percent. The AJC's poll of the race in July found Johnson receiving the support of 13 percent in Georgia — enough to throw the race to Hillary Clinton.
NO, we're not a battleground state: Yes, Johnson is polling anywhere from 5 percent to 13 percent in recent surveys, but no Libertarian since 1988 has gotten more than 1.4 percent of the general election vote in Georgia. Johnson, himself, was on the ballot in 2012 and was the choice of just 1.16 percent of Georgia voters.
ADVERTISING
YES, we're a battleground state: Clinton's campaign has peppered cable networks and national news programming with advertising that penetrates into Georgia. Areas of the state along the North Carolina and Florida borders are blanketed by ads. Trump's campaign has inquired about ad rates with local television stations, a typical step in advance of buying airtime.
NO, we're not a battleground state: Neither campaign so far has bought airtime on Atlanta's four major television network stations, the truest sign of a competitive statewide race.
HISTORY
YES, we're a battleground state: There is no recent history that bolsters this case, outside the 1992 campaign where a third-party candidate (Perot) led to a Democratic victory. Still, Democrats are showing major gains in other Southern states, and even many Republicans believe the trend in Georgia is moving toward the Democratic Party thanks in large part to shifting demographics.
NO, we're not a battleground state: Barack Obama put millions into Georgia in 2008 but largely pulled out of the state around Labor Day and lost by 5 percentage points. Obama did not contest Georgia in 2012 and lost by nearly 8 points. Republicans control 10 of 14 congressional seats and both U.S. Senate seats, and they hold near super-majorities in the state House and Senate and occupy every statewide position.
VOTER REGISTRATION
YES, we're a battleground state: There are actually fewer registered voters in Georgia than in any election year since 2006, and while the number of black voters is down nearly 7 percent since 2008, the drop in white voters is more precipitous: 12 percent. White voters now constitute just under 58 percent of the electorate, compared with 63 percent in 2008. African-Americans, meanwhile, make up 29 percent of all registered voters, down slightly from 30 percent in 2008.
A recent AJC poll found Trump getting the support of just 2 percent of black voters in Georgia, compared with 21 percent of white voters who say they'll vote for Clinton, meaning that overwhelming support of black voters for the Democrat is significant.
NO, we're not a battleground state: The split in percentages of white and black voters in Georgia is largely unchanged from the 2014 general election, when high-profile Democrats Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn were trounced in their bids for governor and U.S. senator, respectively. Data don't vote.
INTANGIBLES
YES, we're a battleground state: Trump's weakness among some Republicans is so intense that even dyed-in-the-wool GOP voters are publicly pledging not to vote for him in November. Many others are saying they will, but they're not excited about it. That lack of enthusiasm alone threatens to give Democrats the edge they need, especially with the possibility of record-breaking votes for Libertarian Gary Johnson.
NO, we're not a battleground state: Just as many Republicans are uneasy with Trump's candidacy, so, too, are many Democrats wary of Clinton. That especially applies to those who supported Bernie Sanders in his bid for the Democratic nomination. It's entirely possible that there are equal percentages of voters in both parties who just can't bring themselves to vote for their nominee, thereby canceling out any perceived advantage.
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