While the national media and pundits might be surprised by Herman Cain's sudden rise in the ranks of the Republican presidential race, there's a huge contingent of people who aren't: "Cainiacs."
Those loyal Cain supporters said Wednesday that his jump in the polls is what they expected. But others who are following the GOP race said Cain's light fundraising and thin campaign operation in early voting states make him a long shot, still.
Whether all of America has become captivated by the Georgia native is unclear, but it is increasingly obvious that a good chunk of the Republican electorate is.
"I always knew it was possible for Herman to reach this point," said Mike Pennesi, 57, of Duluth. "America needed time to hear this man, to become captivated by all his human qualities, as well as his professional skills."
In the past three weeks, Cain has dominated the GOP race for president. He's gone from an after-thought to a top-tier candidate. Just this week a new CBS national poll has Cain tied for the lead with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Other polls have him within the margin of error of first place in Florida and dominating Georgia. He's been all over TV from late-night appearances on the "Tonight Show" to daytime stalwart "The View."
That kind of exposure tends to build upon itself, where momentum begets momentum.
Cain's challenge for the moment is to maintain that momentum and not make mistakes. But some think Cain is making a huge mistake right now.
Cain's new book, "This is Herman Cain!" is rocketing up the Amazon.com bestseller list.The Stockbridge resident launched a book tour to support it Wednesday in Orlando. That book tour will take him to many states, few of which are among those voting early in 2012 when the GOP nomination could be decided.
That could be a problem for Cain, said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, S.C..
"With the new primary schedule being shoved forward it makes consistent and repeated appearances in these early states that much more important," Huffmon said. "The timeline is condensed. Taking a month off has very different ramifications now than it did when South Carolina was going to go Feb. 28 instead of a month earlier."
South Carolina Republicans this week announced its primary would be Jan. 21, which will likely push Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada even earlier into the new year. Florida's primary will be Jan. 31.
"People are going to look at this and say he’s just handing fuel to his skeptics who say this [campaign] is clearly just bolstering his personal finances," Huffmon said.
The Cain campaign did not return requests for comment. Its Stockbridge-based operation lost much of his communications staff, including chief spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael. She left to return to her native Louisiana and a job with a candidate for lieutenant governor. Carmichael told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that her departure was amicable.
Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz predicted in May that Cain would struggle to break out of the GOP pack and could have trouble facing more experienced candidates like Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
Abramowitz said Wednesday he's sticking to that opinion.
"I remain very skeptical about his chances of winning the nomination," Abramowitz said, noting that Cain has benefited from Perry's "weak performance thus far and the reluctance of conservatives to embrace Mitt Romney."
Perry's campaign announced Wednesday it will report having raised $17 million in less than two months when campaign finance reports are due Oct 15. While Cain's team said he has seen a significant boost in fund raising from his string of strong performances, he's not likely to have the campaign cash to compete with Perry and Romney, who is also expected to announce he raised more than $10 million in the third quarter.
Abramowitz also questioned the timing and schedule of Cain's book tour.
"It is ridiculous if he’s serious about winning the nomination," Abramowitz said. "But it’s sensible if his goal is selling books. He’s the new Sarah Palin."
Cain told ABC News on Tuesday that his strategy for winning the nomination involves finishing in the top three in Iowa and New Hampshire and then winning South Carolina and Florida. Given his place in national polls, a top-three finish in Iowa and New Hampshire seems possible. But winning South Carolina won't be easy, especially -- as Winthrop's Huffmon notes -- if Cain isn't there to personally campaign.
According to Tea Party websites in South Carolina, Cain's headquarters in the state will have its grand opening on Friday, but Cain won't be there. Meanwhile, Romney will be delivering a major foreign policy address in Charleston that same day.
Still, Rusty Paul, a former Georgia senator and state Republican chairman, said Cain has accomplished what few thought he could and therefore should not be discounted going forward.
He’s waging a “guerilla presidential campaign. All you need is a suitcase and a message," Paul said.
“I would not underestimate Herman Cain," Paul continued. "He has had the most consistent message, he articulates it well and is capitalizing on the exposure. If he does well in a couple early primaries and caucuses, the money will come."
Cain, speaking to Fox News late Tuesday, said his rise hasn't surprised him, although the speed with which it came has.
"I expected to go this far," he said. "I didn’t expect us to get this boost this early."
Now that he's joined that top tier, he has to focus on staying there.
"A lot of people are taking a look at the long shot and saying maybe that long shot is not a long shot anymore," he said.
Cain supporter Jackie Brooks of Watkinsville believes Cain is on his way to even bigger things.
"He is the answer for America's problems and that is going to become evident to more people as he gets more exposure," Brooks said. "He absolutely has a shot at the Republican nomination and then the White House!"
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