The hotter than normal start to the year most of Georgia has experienced is likely to continue at least through summer, a new federal forecast shows.
New projections released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that Georgia is likely to be warmer than usual during the months of June, July and August, especially in the southern half of the state. The agency’s forecast also slightly favors wetter than normal conditions.
If the forecast proves accurate, it would continue the pattern of exceptional heat the state has felt through much of winter and spring 2023.
Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The first three months of 2023 were the hottest such period ever recorded in Georgia, with temperatures averaging 56.4 degrees. That’s 6.4 degrees above the 20th century average for that time of year.
April temperatures were closer to normal. But January through April was still the third-hottest such period the state has experienced since record-keeping began in 1895, with temperatures statewide almost 5 degrees above the 20th century average.
The forecast for Georgia mostly reflects the influence of long-term warming trends, said Johnna Infanti, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Temperatures observed across the globe in 2023 also bear the tell-tale signs of human-caused climate change. Globally, the period from January to April was the 4th-hottest start to the year the planet has ever recorded. In recent days, the Pacific Northwest has been gripped by a record-breaking heatwave that sent temperatures climbing above 90 degrees in places like Portland, Oregon, and Western Canada.
With all the warmth, NOAA now says there’s a 99% chance that 2023 will rank among the 10 warmest years recorded, and a 28% chance that it could wind up as the hottest ever observed since 1850.
Uncertainty over hurricane season
After three straight years featuring La Niña conditions, NOAA now says it’s less a question of if, but when, its opposite — El Niño — will develop. The agency’s latest forecast projects El Niño will officially arrive within the next couple of months and likely persist through winter.
La Niña is driven by a cooling of the waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, while El Niño is characterized by warmer than-normal temperatures in the Pacific. Both phenomena can influence global weather patterns.
They also affect hurricane season in the U.S.
El Niño tends to send strong, westerly winds across the Caribbean and the Atlantic, which can tear apart tropical storms and hurricanes as they try to form. But this year, record-warm ocean temperatures have clouded the outlook for hurricane season.
NOAA reported Thursday that global ocean temperatures in April were the hottest ever observed for the month.
Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia, said that could mean the U.S. will have a more active hurricane season than otherwise would be expected in an El Niño year.
“This year, ocean temperatures — especially in the main (hurricane) development area of the Atlantic Ocean — are much warmer than usual, and that’s a major fuel source for hurricanes,” Knox said.
Last month, an influential group of scientists from Colorado State University predicted that the 2023 hurricane season would be slightly less active than normal, but said their forecast carried a high degree of uncertainty, largely due to the exceptionally hot ocean temperatures.
Hurricane season begins on June 1 and NOAA is expected to issue its official forecast next week.
A note of disclosure
This coverage is supported by a partnership with 1Earth Fund, the Kendeda Fund and Journalism Funding Partners. You can learn more and support our climate reporting by donating at ajc.com/donate/climate/
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