Emory University scholars Alan Abramowitz and Steven Webster have published a paper in the journal Electoral Studies with a conclusion that runs contrary to some Republican hand-wringing.
Their finding? There will be no Democratic landslide next year, even if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee, because of "negative partisanship" that translates into strongly held party loyalty -- and a closely divided electorate, regardless of who heads the respective tickets.
The full article is available here for a fee. Here's a taste:
Regardless of the direction or strength of their party identification, American voters in the 21st century are much more likely to hold strongly negative views of the opposing party than in the past. A growing proportion of Americans dislike the opposing party more than they like their own party. The rise of negative partisanship in the American electorate has contributed to the highest rates of party loyalty and straight-ticket voting in the last 60 years.
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It comes as little surprise that Georgia's most powerful business leaders are prepared next year to fight the latest push to pass "religious liberty" bills and to expand transit.
The Metro Atlanta Chamber's outgoing chair, Larry Gellerstedt, also signaled unease over state efforts to ban Syrian refugees from entering Georgia.
Asked about recent debate over Syrian refugees in Georgia and comments by Trump on Muslim travel bans, Gellerstedt said: "Anything that discriminates against any group, we are not going to be for. That will be (our) base and there won't be waffling on that."
Marshall Guest, the chamber's go-to lobbyist, said Gellerstedt also added that the issue would be vetted through the organization's public policy advisory board. But he said it's "really beyond the scope of our public policy work."
"Ensuring Georgia is known as a welcoming, inclusive environment for our customers, employees and tourists alike will be a priority for us," Guest said.
Some brief backstory about the debate:
Gov. Nathan Deal ordered state agencies in November to halt any involvement in resettling new Syrian refugees, which prompted a threat of a lawsuit by the Obama administration. Just weeks after he signed the order, three new Syrian refugees arrived from the war-torn country and applied for food stamp benefits.
The state Department of Human Services confirmed last week it would stick to its new policy of refusing to process applications for benefits for newly arrived Syrian refugees, setting up a possible legal showdown with civil rights groups. Meanwhile, Attorney General Sam Olens warned that Georgia's defiance is "not well supported in the law," while Deal has said he will vigorously defend his stance in court.
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The pro-gambling forces are laying the groundwork before the legislative session.
A reader let us know he received a robocall poll asking if he supported allowing a vote for a limited number of "destination casinos" over the weekend. The call came from the Remington Research Group, which specializes in phone polls.
Casino giants - MGM pitched a $1 billion-plus gambling resort for downtown Atlanta - hope to persuade two-thirds of lawmakers to embrace casino-style gambling next year. But the odds seem against them given Gov. Nathan Deal's opposition and lukewarm response from key lawmakers.
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Democrats in Congress are trying to turn up the heat on Georgia Republican Sens. Johnny Isakson and David Perdue to allow the nomination of Judge Dax Lopez to move forward.
After a floor speech last week by Minority Leader Harry Reid that mentioned Lopez as one of four Latino judicial nominees waiting for confirmation, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is taking up the quartet's cause. Said CHC head Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Calif., in a statement:
"It is incomprehensible that Republicans are playing politics with our judicial system, especially at a time when our courts are most overwhelmed and in need of judges. What we have before us is another example of Republican obstructionism. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus urges the swift confirmation of the four highly qualified Latino judicial nominees. It's important to have our judicial system reflect the diversity of our country. Our Caucus has relentlessly pushed for Latino representation in every sector and will continue to do so until our priorities are mirrored at every level."
Lopez was nominated by President Barack Obama in July, but the Georgia senators have effectively blocked his nomination so far by not submitting "blue slips" to the Judiciary Committee. Lopez resigned his post in the Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials after he came under fire from the right for GALEO's advocacy for "amnesty."
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House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams is getting some fundraising help.
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm will be in town on Jan. 6 to raise cash for Abrams and the House Democratic Caucus. A seat will cost you at least $250.
Expect a flurry of other fundraisers just before the legislative session starts - fundraising is a no-go during the 40 days of lawmaking in Atlanta.
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Congrats to Senate Minority Leader Steve Henson on his big day.
From the Facebook page of his spokeswoman Liz Flowers:
It is my very great honor to introduce to the FB world Mr. and MRS. Stephen B. Henson. Beth and Steve were married today. The ceremony was officiated by former Georgia State Senator and now Honorable Judge Ronald Ramsey.
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