A last poll by Channel 2 Action News/Landmark Communications puts the possibility of an end to the 2014 election season tantalizingly close. Click here to download the crosstabs. From the TV station's website:
Deal leads Democrat Jason Carter by a margin of 50.8 percent to 44.5 percent in the poll. Libertarian candidate Andrew Hunt has fallen to 2.5 percent.
Perdue is just short of the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff in the U.S. Senate race. The poll shows Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by 49.8 percent to 45.6 percent.
For the last 10 days, polls have had windows closing on Democratic prospects in Georgia. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com gives Perdue a 44 percent chance of winning outright on Tuesday, and Nunn a 26 percent.
However, the political statistician said, Nunn’s chances would actually improve in a Jan. 6 runoff:
[T]he race in Georgia will only go to a runoff if it was very close to begin with. And that suggests a runoff would be close as well. (The model assumes there's some correlation between the Nov. 4 and runoff outcomes.) Thus, the FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Nunn a 36 percent chance of winning a runoff conditional upon one occurring — better than her chances of winning Tuesday.
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